Thursday, July 3, 2025

 

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Holy Crap - SPX Breached Expected Move Twice

By Don Kaufman

 

Holy crap…

Look, even the most cockeyed optimist would have to be looking at this market right now and going like, "I can't believe the S&P is trading 6321."

But here's what's really got me fired up - we just had our second consecutive week of breaching expected moves. That's not normal, okay? That's manic.

The Math That's Blowing My Mind

Alright, so let me break this down for you. Last week we had about a $116 expected move on the SPX. We smashed through it. This week? $72 expected move, and we're trading 30-plus handles outside of it.

You know what that tells me? The market got dramatically wrong. Twice.

Look, when you start getting consecutive breaches of expected move, okay? Things are getting manic out there. You can smell it, you can taste it.

Here's What Most People Don't Get About This Rally

So everyone's celebrating this massive move higher, but when I started digging deeper, I'm like, holy crap. This isn't what it looks like.

You know what carried us this week? Apple. That's it. Apple literally carried the entire marketplace on its back.

Check this out - Tesla's down for the week. NVIDIA? Basically flat. Meta? Actually down. Google? Unchanged. Amazon? Literally unchanged. Microsoft? Basically unchanged.

The NASDAQ has become a proverbial whack-a-mole, okay? 

You knock something down, something else pops up. But here's the thing - the NASDAQ got dragged kicking and screaming higher. It didn't even close above its expected move.

Look…I’ve got a lot more to say…and I break it all down in today’s market video update. 

 

Click here to watch now. 

 

To your success,

Don Kaufman

 

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Warm regards,

Don Kaufman

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