| In 2014, the BJP became the first party to secure a parliamentary majority in three decades. It did even better in 2019, and when this year’s election got under way, it was expected to strengthen further. There was even talk of winning 400 of the 543 parliamentary seats on offer, which has only happened once since independence in 1947. Most opinion polls in the runup to the election predicted a commanding majority for the BJP, while Modi’s personal approval rating hovers about 75%. And although the once-dominant Congress party sought to strengthen its position through the formation of a broad coalition named INDIA, or the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, last July, it has struggled to put forward a coherent vision with its allies. “The narrative was about the strength of Modi’s position,” Hannah said. “They are popular, they have a strong campaign operation, and they have been accused of bringing the media, the judiciary and the election commission under their control.” A Modi victory remains the most likely outcome. But, said Hannah, there have been cracks in the facade. “Modi talks about a story of economic growth, and India rising. But people aren’t feeling that success story on the ground, and in some places that has led to anger with the government.” Modi’s dominance The BJP was formed in 1980 as an offshoot of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a paramilitary organisation that sought to promote the idea of India as a Hindu nation – in stark contrast to the Congress party’s vision of a secular state. For a sense of how Modi went about “remaking India into an authoritarian, Hindu nationalist state”, see Samanth Subramanian’s superb 2020 long read. “Indians often vote on local issues,” Hannah said. “His success is to get many of them to vote on the basis of support for his Hindu nationalist vision.” India under Modi is sometimes described as an “illiberal democracy”, where people get a real vote but use it against a backdrop of an increasingly authoritarian state. Modi’s popularity is real, but comes with an asterisk about how it has been achieved. Modi hasn’t conducted a press conference in 10 years. “He has successfully co-opted the media,” Hannah said. “Everything people read or see on TV is designed to promote the prime minister. If people feel that their own lives have become harder, they don’t see that reflected in the media and culture. So even when people don’t believe in the government, they may still give Modi their vote.” The economic backdrop Despite the story they hear, the economic pain experienced by many ordinary people is real. Although the overall unemployment rate is below 5%, underemployment – less visible in statistics – remains a serious problem. Meanwhile, the youth unemployment rate is near 18%, a particularly pressing issue given nearly half the population is below 25. And GDP per capita stands at $2,411 – a figure that compares poorly with other emerging economies like China and Mexico. Meanwhile, because of a sense that Modi’s government favours a few large companies and makes arbitrary interventions in their favour, foreign direct investment has actually been in decline – and now stands at a dismal 0.7% of GDP. All that means that India’s strong headline growth rate is far from telling the whole story. Hannah points to a recent study written by a group of economists including Thomas Piketty which found that as a new generation of billionaires has risen under Modi, India now has greater inequality than at any point in its history – even than under British colonial rule. Modi’s continuing popularity despite all that is in part because of how effectively he links India’s generous welfare system to his personal brand, with about $400bn on direct cash benefits over the last decade. “The BJP manifesto is titled ‘Modi’s Guarantee’,” Hannah said. “His picture is on the bags of food that people are given, and almost everything that people get from the state. But the spending on things that would have a long-term impact like healthcare and schools is not there.” Despite the popularity of those subsidies, Hannah said, “There is tangible anger about the overall picture. I’ve spoken to people who say that there are all these highways and sleek airports being built, but they can’t use them on an auto or a scooter – and they’re connecting places up without foreign industry coming in to use them.” In interviews with voters over the last few weeks, “the anger and resentment is a lot more vocal than I had thought. And after 10 years in power, it’s difficult to blame anyone else.” Islamophobic rhetoric While Hindu nationalism and Islamophobia have been a central tenet of Modi’s rule, and are widely seen as the source for rising persecution and violence against Muslims, “in the past, he has tended to let lower level people in the party say the more extreme things,” Hannah said. “So seeing him take a different approach during this campaign is perhaps a sign of worry and alarm that the campaign isn’t going as they want it to.” One possible reason for that is a dip in turnout against 2019: although analysts say that this doesn’t necessarily point to trouble for the BJP, the party appears to be spooked by fears that its supporters are not excited. Last month, Modi used a campaign rally to refer to Muslims as “infiltrators” who have “many children” and would take people’s hard-earned money. He also said that under a previous Congress government, “Muslims have the first right over the nation’s wealth”, and warned that a victory for the opposition would mean the same thing happening again. Last week, the government released a report which said that India’s Hindu population had declined by 14% over the course of 65 years, while the Muslim population has increased. “There’s no new data – but it’s incendiary,” Hannah said. “When Modi looks weaker on the economy, that kind of polarisation is his safest territory.” The opposition’s struggles The BJP’s campaign to secure 400 seats has been seen by some as having backfired – because it has allowed the opposition to focus on concerns over what Modi might do with a big enough majority to change the constitution and enshrine India as a Hindu-first country rather than a secular republic. But Congress and INDIA have been unable to fully capitalise. “That is partly because of the power the BJP wields,” Hannah said. “They have been accused of using the state to go after opposition figures with investigations and coerce them to jump to the BJP. The opposition leader, Rahul Gandhi, was jailed over a trumped-up defamation case. Congress’s bank accounts have been frozen, and the chief minister of Delhi has been locked up. They are being consistently undermined.” More than 90% of cases involving politicians over the last decade have been against members of the opposition. But it is also true that the opposition faces problems of its own making. “Gandhi lost the last two elections against Modi, and he appears to be a reluctant leader – but he’s still there. The party is seen as dynastic and elitist. And the INDIA coalition is pretty ideologically incoherent. They have huge egos at the top without much common ground.” In the face of Modi’s overwhelming personal strength, the fact that his opponents cannot coalesce around a platform or even a single leader is part of why he is still likely to win – even if 400 seats now appear improbable. “Against a cult of personality, a messy coalition just isn’t enough,” Hannah said. “In the end, even if they’re disenchanted, many people will still vote for Modi.” | 