The world is watching

An unprecedented and invective-filled campaign for the White House that included the dramatic substitution of one party’s standard-bearer and an assassination attempt against the other comes to an end tonight. The 2024 race saw the return to the limelight of a 78-year-old Donald Trump despite two impeachments, four indictments and his new status as a convicted felon. It was followed by the sudden departure of President Joe Biden, who while just three years Trump’s senior, was run off by his own party following a botched debate and a firestorm of negative media coverage. Suddenly facing a new rival in Vice President Kamala Harris, 60, Trump turned his attention to the former US senator and prosecutor through months of disjointed, hours-long speeches packed with malapropisms and sprinkled with racial and ethnic insults.

If elected to a second term, the Republican has threatened to prosecute his political enemies and send the military into the streets of Democratic cities to target illegal immigrants. Trump’s allies have assembled a plan to eviscerate many of the agencies central to the federal government and the regulations they enforce while filling powerful posts with inexperienced loyalists. He also has pledged to escalate the trade war he began with China while, as a self-professed admirer of Vladimir Putin, helping negotiate an end to a war in which Russia has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians. Harris has spent her truncated campaign railing against alleged price gouging while promising (like Trump) to urge Congress to reduce taxes and help with the cost of childcare. But most of all, Harris and her fellow Democrats have gravely warned that, beyond the radical right-turn on policy planned by Trump, a 248-year-old democracy is on the ballot, and that the whole world is watching. —David E. Rovella

If the US electorate is as closely divided between Harris and Trump as polls have suggested, it could be a day or even a week before the result is known. The way votes are tabulated across 51 jurisdictions can produce so-called mirages, the appearance that a candidate has a lead somewhere which proves illusory. Here’s what to watch for tonight, and maybe tomorrow.

Fighting over what both sides have warned are existential issues, the Harris and Trump campaigns have managed to agree on only one thing—that humdrum norms of competent governance are for now beside the point, Bloomberg’s Editorial Board writes. One of those norms is fiscal responsibility. Sooner or later, governments that set this concern aside come to grief. When that happens, the board warns, they take their economies down with them. The prospect is no longer unthinkable for the US. Yet it’s hard to recall an election that ignored the issue so totally or in which pandering on taxes and public spending was so unrestrained.

Bond investors are piling into trades that would profit from a rally in Treasuries, pricing in a scenario viewed as more likely under a victory by Harris while paring back bets seen as favoring Trump. Stocks climbed Tuesdaywhile the dollar fell in the last trading session before votes are tallied. Wall Street was preparing for a long night of potentially contentious ballot counting and sharp swings no matter the outcome. Goldman Sachs strategists said there’s a possibility of a burst of volatility in the aftermath of the election, but also pointed to the resilient US economic backdrop as likely to support equities in the long run. Here’s your markets wrap.

Super Micro Computer gave a sales forecast that fell short of analysts’ estimates while saying it couldn’t predict when it would file official financial statements for its previous fiscal year. The shares dropped about 16% in extended trading. The embattled server maker missed an August deadline to file its annual financial report and last week its auditor, Ernst & Young, resigned, citing concerns about the company’s governance and transparency. An investigation of the accounting issues by a special board committee found “no evidence of fraud or misconduct on the part of management or the board of directors,” Super Micro said Tuesday.

Nvidia became the largest company in the world today, surpassing Apple and underscoring yet again just how dominant AI has become on Wall Street. Its shares rose 2.9% to $139.93, resulting in a market capitalization of $3.43 trillion, ahead of Apple at $3.38 trillion. Microsoft, which Nvidia passed last month, has a market cap of $3.06 trillion. “Over the past several quarters, it has felt like people basically care about inflation numbers, job numbers, and Nvidia numbers,” said Fall Ainina, director of research at James Investment Research. “Nvidia overtaking Apple in market cap not only conveys that it is the biggest beneficiary of the AI infrastructure cycle, but it suggests people expect the AI boom will continue.” Nvidia has soared more than 850% since the end of 2022.

Goldman Sachs plans to add the most executives to its partnership since David Solomon took over. The promotions to be announced this week are said to exceed the previous high of the Solomon era, set in 2022, when 80 employees made the cut. The moves are part of the bank’s biennial ritual to tap a select few to join the ranks of its 1-percenters. The Wall Street firm stands out from its peers in retaining a nod to its pre-public days as a partnership by maintaining that title as its highest rank. A little more than 400 executives are part of the group.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, under siege over a suspected leak of classified information while presiding over renewed bombing of a blasted Gaza Strip as well as Lebanon, fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, triggering widespread protests in Israel. The disputes between the two men “were accompanied by statements and actions that contradicted the decisions of the government and the security cabinet,” Netanyahu said late Tuesday. In a televised response, Gallant attributed his dismissal to his advice to compromise over the war with Hamas in order to recover hostages, and his demand for the conscription of religious young men.

How will markets react the day after the US election? Bloomberg's Kristine Aquino, Emily Graffeo, Norah Mulinda and Carter Johnson will dive into the data to discuss key market signals that Wall Street is watching—and will answer readers’ questions. Join our Live Q&A on Nov. 6 at 1pm ET here.

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