The world is burning; markets are crashing but I feel fine

Friday, 8 July 2022 — Burradoo, Australia

[6 min read]

Dear Reader,

I hope you’re getting accustomed to the markets falling in the past few weeks. It seems like there’s nowhere to hide.

You remember how I often tout gold as a good place in times of trouble.

Well, gold is taking a hit too. Last week, it was still holding the fort at US$1,800 an ounce (AU$2,630). Now it’s trading below US$1,740 (AU$2,550). Expect further selling pressure in the coming weeks.

Gold has held itself well during the last two and a half years as the world became more chaotic.

Let’s have a look at the gold price in US and Australian dollar terms in recent years:

The pattern seems to suggest gold could take a bigger dip if the trend continues. This is because the Federal Reserve has indicated that it will continue its aggressive path to control inflation. This means you should expect the July rate hike to lean more towards 0.75% rather than 0.5%.

Another sign that gold may not recover quickly is that the real yields are staying stubbornly above 1%. In other words, cash appears just a little more attractive now as it pays interest while gold does not.

Inflation is peaking, as suggested by the official rates and crude oil prices are showing us. So perhaps the Federal Reserve and central banks raising interest rates further will keep real yield up.

Have I suddenly turned bearish on gold? I should if I’m reading the trends correctly!

Sure, you hear about the gold price in US dollar terms. You’ll hear people say that gold hasn’t gone up much in the last 11 years. It topped at US$1,921 an ounce in early September 2011 and had a brief period in 2020, and late last year when it traded at more than US$2,000. It’s back down below US$1,800 an ounce. And maybe gold could fall below US$1,700 an ounce in the next two months, who knows?

But no, I’m not bearish on gold. Rather, I feel fine.

Following the bouncing ball of the US dollar

Let’s have a look at this figure below:

I’ve charted the gold price in US dollar terms and the US Dollar Index, which measures how the US dollar varies against six major world currencies (details here).

The gold price didn’t rise much in the last 11 years…correct. But the US Dollar Index has increased by almost 50% since its low in mid-2011. That happened during the US Government debt crisis when Congress almost shut down as it couldn’t cover its bills without increasing its borrowing limit.

The Federal Reserve came to the rescue in mid-2013 when it decided to play around with the short- and long-term bond markets and revived the markets (temporarily). The real yield rose significantly in April 2013, leading to gold taking a monumental smacking.

By early 2015, the Federal Reserve started talking about raising rates some time soon, which strengthened the US dollar. You can see that even though the price of gold didn’t fall much more in 2015, the US dollar strengthening meant that gold was actually increasing in value.

Then gold started making its amazing comeback from 2018, with the world noticing it in mid-2019. It started to break all-time record highs in almost every world currency.

Remember how gold traded at more than AU$2,000 an ounce for the first time in June 2019 and stayed above since?

Things are clearer when you look at this figure:

This is the price of gold after accounting for the changes in the US Dollar Index. You can say this is a good measure for the intrinsic value of gold. When the US dollar strengthens and the price of gold stays the same, gold has become more valuable and vice versa.

Has gold not gone anywhere the last 11 years, or even since the turn of the millennium?

It’s getting clearer now, right?

Central bank errors boost gold — before, now, and forever more

I took some time to think about how the Federal Reserve and central banks tinker with their monetary policy to try and fix the economy.

It’s an exercise in futility, and increasingly so.

That doesn’t mean they won’t stop anytime soon.

Gold happily rides along and gains value every step of the way. There are shakes and bumps.

Here’s another figure to put it into context:

Gold trades in a rather tight range when the economy is stable. There’s little need to have an insurance policy when everything is fine. But it’s useful when things get rocky, that’s why you pay a higher premium for your home if you live in a bad neighbourhood.

Gold is the same.

Central bankers took seven years, from 2006–13, to get their economic ‘stability’. That lasted for five years or so.

We are now three and a half years into the next transition phase.

You expect them to fix it up quickly this time round? These rate hikes will magically work?

I doubt it. Not when the world is in increasing turmoil as people worldwide rally together to take on their corrupt government and business leaders.

Tongue in cheek, while the world is ‘burning down’, I feel fine with gold.

But more seriously, will they burn down the world?

I certainly hope not. But things will get rough so be prepared.

I’m at peace with my refuge in gold. I hope you find something for yourself.

We have something to get you started, if you’re unsure. Check out our model portfolio solution for troubling times here.

God bless,

Brian Chu,
Editor, The Daily Reckoning Australia

Dear Reader,

‘Eternal Father strong to save
‘Whose arms hath bound the restless wave
‘Who bids the mighty ocean deep
‘Its own appointed limits keep
‘Oh hear us when we cry to Thee
‘For those in peril on the sea’

William Whiting

Yesterday morning investors were in trouble. The last six months were the worst in the stock market since 1970. As for the bond market, they were the worst since George Washington was president. Yesterday, stocks fell another 700 points (on the Dow) and spent the rest of the day recovering.

The seas have gotten restless. Almost everywhere you look, sailors cling to wreckage. One is buoyed by a busted-up tech stock. Another grabs a cracked-up crypto and holds on for dear life. Still, another is wondering what happened; didn’t Joe Biden say we have ‘the strongest economy in the world’?

Today, we bow our heads and pray for deliverance.

The high winds and monster waves were coming from three different directions yesterday. First: the stock market itself. A bear market takes on a life of its own. As investors’ boats sink, they need to jettison other things to stay afloat. The good, the bad, the ugly — all end up as flotsam and jetsam.

A real bear market typically takes stock prices down about 35%. This one has only off-loaded 20% so far. Much further to go, in other words.

Fear takes hold

Second, the sell-off is much more widespread than usual. North, south, in the air or on the sea…Mr Market is taking almost everything down. Here’s a headline from the Financial Times: ‘Copper slides below $8,000 as recession fears take hold’.

And here’s Market Insider: ‘Oil prices plunge below $100 as the US dollar strengthens and recession worries pile up’.

And third, the Jerome Powell Fed is not responding to SOS calls. Or at least, not yet. For the last 30-plus years, investors could count on the Fed to send out lifeboats. There was the Greenspan Put…the Bernanke Put…the Yellen Put…but things have changed. Now Mr Powell is Staying Put. He warns investors:

‘…now we are in this new world where it is quite different with higher inflation and many supply shocks and strong inflationary forces around the world.’

The Bank for International Settlements explained it further:

‘Central banks fully understand that the long-term benefits [of fighting inflation] far outweigh any short-term costs. And that credibility is too precious an asset to be put at risk.’

Yes, dear reader, central banks are leaving the poor sailors to weather the tempest as best they can. And it isn’t easy. Because the whole capital structure — stocks and bonds, credits, and debits…NFTs and beer bottle collections — the whole shebang has been distorted and corrupted by the Fed’s fake money.

The US Treasury bond was a ‘safe harbor’ for investors for decades. But in recent years, the ‘risk-free rate of return’ from a T-Bond went down, down, down — until it came to rest about 600 basis points below the rate of consumer price inflation. In other words, all the ‘return’ was underwater. All that was left was risk. And then, the yield on the 10-year T-bond rose nearly six times in the last 24 months, leading to the biggest losses (over the last six months) in 224 years.

Just getting started

This bond market correction is far more important than the bear market in stocks. It undermines pensions, insurance, debt, and federal finances too.

And it means that the real estate market is next in line for losses. Mortgage rates are linked to Treasury yields. And when mortgage rates go up, property prices generally go in the opposite direction.

A few weeks ago, we estimated that the correction would take US$50 trillion of (fake) wealth from the elite. Our fact-checkers challenged us. But the calculation was simple. Total household net worth used to average about 350% to 400% of GDP. Now, it’s more than 600%...or about US$50 trillion too much.

But that estimate may be far too low. Jesse Feldman says the bear market may have already erased US$20 to US$30 trillion. And it’s just getting started.

From Dr Doom…

And here’s Nouriel Roubini spreading more cheer on MarketWatch:

‘…today’s higher inflation is a global phenomenon, most central banks are tightening at the same time, thereby increasing the probability of a synchronized global recession. This tightening is already having an effect: bubbles are deflating everywhere—including in public and private equity, real estate, housing, meme stocks, crypto, SPACs (special-purpose acquisition companies), bonds, and credit instruments. Real and financial wealth is falling, and debts and debt-servicing ratios are rising.

‘After all, in typical plain-vanilla recessions…[stocks] tend to fall by about 35%. But, because the next recession will be both stagflationary and accompanied by a financial crisis, the crash in equity markets could be closer to 50%.’

Things will get much worse before they get better.

Let’s apply that 50% to the whole of household net worth, which is about US$144 trillion. A 50% haircut — trimming the values of houses, stocks, private businesses, bonds — would represent more than US$70 trillion in vanished wealth.

Will that happen? Who knows? It could be worse.

Tune in next week; and in the meantime, keep those life vests buckled up.

Regards,

Bill Bonner,
For The Daily Reckoning Australia