| | | | Tuesday, November 19, 2024 | | Is this a safe space? Can I make a confession? Since it is my newsletter, I like to think I can, so here goes: | | Relief pitcher is my least favorite position to talk about for Fantasy Baseball. I love trying to predict what's going to happen in the upcoming season, knowing full well that we're going to get a ton of things wrong along the way. But when it comes to relief pitchers, it's so much more difficult than other positions – the sample sizes are smaller, which makes projecting performance even more difficult with relievers than any other position. | | But there's another reason why it's a source of frustration: At reliever, "Are you good?" is just one part of the equation, and not even necessarily the biggest part. At every other position, performance is the most important factor in a player's value, but because reliever value is so heavily tied to their ability to rack up saves, usage matters as much, if not more, than performance. | | Performance, of course, tends to play into role, but not always. Sometimes, deeply mediocre pitchers put together deeply mediocre seasons and nonetheless remain must-start players in Fantasy solely because their team leaves them in the closer's role. Meanwhile, there might be dozens – literally dozens! – of relievers who are better than the worst dozen or so closers in any given season but who effectively don't matter for Fantasy because they aren't used in the ninth inning with a three-run lead. | | | | It all makes for a frustrating experience as both an analyst and as a player. You can approach that frustration from a couple of different directions when building your Fantasy team come Draft Day. You can just avoid it entirely, draft at least one (and ideally two) elite closer, and just not worry about it at all. Or, you can steer into the uncertainty, avoid betting big on any (inherently volatile) pitcher who only really makes a true difference in one category, and just throw multiple late-round darts at speculative closers, hoping you hit on a few late-round gems – while knowing you'll likely have to play the waiver-wire at some point in the season no matter which path you take. | | Me? Well, I tend to split the difference between the two approaches, taking a high-end closer around the sixth round or so, following up with another around the 12th if someone obvious falls, and then targeting strong skills with a path to a closer role in the later rounds over obviously mediocre/bad pitchers who happen to look like the closer right now. Sometimes, those later picks work out, like Carlos Estevez in 2024, but just as often, they'll blow up in your face, like Carlos Estevez in 2023. | | What I don't want to do at RP is pay for marginal skills just because they're projected to get saves. We aren't nearly as good at projecting who will be a closer in April as we tend to think, let alone for the whole season. You should try to avoid bad skill sets just because of the closer role. If you do that, you should be okay at closer. | | This is the end of my position-by-position offseason preview series, and we'll be back with the newsletter later this week to give a more overarching preview of the offseason, with 10 moves we'd like to see go down across the league. For now, here's what you need to know from every other position from both myself and Scott White in recent weeks: | | Early 2025 Rankings | | CatcherFirst base Second base Third baseShortstop Outfield Starting pitcher | | State of the Position | | CatcherFirst base Second base Third baseShortstop Outfield Starting pitcher | | | | 2024 Relief Pitcher Review | | 2024 top-12 finishers | | Emmanuel Clase, CLE: 0.60 - 0.66 - 66 - 47Ryan Helsley, STL: 2.04 - 1.1 - 79 - 49 Kirby Yates, TEX: 1.17 - 0.83 - 85 - 33Cole Ragans, KC: 3.14 - 1.14 - 223 - 0 Raisel Iglesias , ATL: 1.95 - 0.74 - 68 - 34Ronel Blanco, HOU: 2.8 - 1.09 - 166 - 0Michael King, SD: 2.95 - 1.19 - 201 - 0 Josh Hader, HOU: 3.8 - 0.96 - 105 - 34Sean Manaea, NYM: 3.47 - 1.08 - 184 - 0 Robert Suarez , SD: 2.77 - 1.05 - 59 - 36Ryan Walker, SF: 1.91 - 0.85 - 99 - 10Tanner Scott, SD: 1.75 - 1.12 - 84 - 22 | | The biggest wins at the position in 2024 were Yates, Suarez, and Scott, who all entered the season with iffy job security but strong skills, with Yates and Suarez holding on the job all season and Scott only losing it because he was so good he got traded to a contender with another elite closer. That's always a risk when talking about closers on mediocre-to-bad teams, even more so than the risk that they just won't get many save opportunities. The latter is an overblown fear, in my eyes – you probably won't get 40 saves from a closer on a bad team, but 30 is usually doable, even on bad teams. And the thing to keep in mind as you go through the process of drafting relievers is this is the position with the most turnover from Draft Day to basically any point in the season. Be flexible, and make sure you have a roster spot to play with so you can jump on potential breakouts early. There will always be a handful we absolutely don't see coming. | | You'll also notice a few names there with a zero in saves – those are our Starting Pitchers as Relief Pitchers, a potential cheat code in H2H points leagues especially. We'll have a handful of candidates at the bottom of today's newsletter to keep on your radar. | | Biggest Breakout from 2024 | | Mason Miller, Athletics | | I was very excited about the prospect of Miller making a move to the bullpen, writing before the season, "Even pitching for a bad team, I think there's a path to Miller being a legitimately elite Fantasy closer this season." He walked that path beautifully, maxing out his electric stuff in short bursts to establish himself as one of the truly dominant relievers in the game. Among 270 pitchers who threw at least 60 innings in the majors last season, his 41.7% strikeout rate was by far the highest in the league; No. 2 was at 37.8%. He was also second in swinging strike rate, and on those rare occasions when hitters managed to make contact against him, they couldn't really do anything with it – his expected wOBA on contact was just .306, the 10th-lowest mark among all pitchers, just behind Emmanuel Clase. | | That's the class of closers Miller is in already. And, despite the best efforts of ownership, the Athletics were surprisingly feisty, generating 28 saves for Miller. They should be better in 2025, and I'm not at all worried about how pitching in a tougher hitting environment in Sacramento will impact Miller. I think he should be a top-five closer in Fantasy for 2025. | | Biggest Bust from 2024 | | Camilo Doval, Giants | | There are always plenty of candidates for this category at a position defined by volatility as much as RP is, but I'm going with Doval, who went from a top-four ADP at the position to outright losing his spot on an MLB roster by the summer. He still ended up with 23 saves amid that, so it wasn't a totally lost season. But given what it cost to acquire Doval, I think he's a fine choice for this superlative – and there's a chance it represents the end of his time as a closer, seeing as he's been struggling with control in his time in the Dominican Winter League this offseason. Doval may get traded somewhere he ends up the closer, but right now, he's just a late-round flier for Fantasy. | | | | Biggest rankings movers from 2024 to 2025 | | Up: Ryan Helsley, Cardinals; Robert Suarez, Padres; Ryan Walker, Giants; Luke Weaver, Yankees | | Helsley represents part of what is frustrating about the RP position for Fantasy, as he ended up with an MLB-high 49 saves on a deeply mediocre Cardinals team. For some context, if Emmanuel Clase had saved the same proportion of Guardians' wins as Helsley did for the Cardinals, he would have finished with 54. Helsley actually took a step back with his strikeout rate in 2024 but was still elite overall, thanks to improvements to his walk rate. I still have concerns about his ability to stay on the mound, but Helsley looks like one of the true elite closers in baseball at this point. | | A plate appearance against Suarez is a fairly straightforward affair. The first pitch you see is almost certainly going to be a fastball – he threw either his four-seamer or sinker 87% of the time in 2024. When he got to a two-strike count, he lowered that all the way to 83.1%. There weren't a lot of mind games or deception going on with Suarez, and it was a strategy that worked extraordinarily well for a long time in 2024. But his "hitters hate this one simple trick" approach seemed to run out of gas as the season went on, with 13 of his 20 earned runs coming in August or September. It's an approach that has mostly worked well for Suarez, but I do wonder if he didn't reach a point of diminishing returns. He should definitely be drafted in all leagues in 2025, but I'm not sure I want to pay face value for what he accomplished in 2024, either. | | Walker and Weaver are both projections based on late-season success, and it's not at all certain either will open the 2025 season as their respective team's closers. But looked downright dominant in their first full seasons pitching out of the bullpen, and if that was for real, they could easily be top-12 closers in 2025. | | Down: Camilo Doval, Giants; Evan Phillips, Dodgers; Jordan Romano , Blue Jays; David Bednar, Pirates | | Each of these guys opened 2024 as their team's unquestioned closer, and now it's not at all clear if they're even going to have high-leverage roles in 2025, let alone be their closer. Of the four, I would guess Bednar has the best chance to get back to his role, though Romano could be the Blue Jays' closer if his elbow cooperates. | | Offseason preview | | Who needs an upgrade most? | | As of today, the following teams don't really have an established closer in house – though that obviously doesn't mean they'll actively be in the market for a closer this offseason, either because they have some in-house options with some upside or because they just don't seem likely to spend on a free agent reliever of note: | | Red SoxWhite Sox TigersRangers Marlins PhilliesCubs Diamondbacks RockiesDodgersGiants | | Of those listed, I will acknowledge that there are probably viable in-house options with the Phillies, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Giants, at least. They just aren't so locked into the role that I feel comfortable projecting their closer for 2025 (yet). | | Top impending free agents | | Kirby YatesKenley JansenCarlos EstevezRyan Pressly Aroldis ChapmanDavid Robertson Clay HolmesCraig Kimbrel Blake Treinen | | I would bet at least a few of these guys will end up closing somewhere, and the rest seem like decent bets to get a chance at some point in 2025. But at this point, I would only bet on Yates and Jansen opening the season as some team's closer. Yates absolutely earned that right after a dominant return to the ninth inning for the Rangers this season, and I would be shocked if he wasn't a closer on Opening Day. Assuming he is, he has a very good case to be a top-10 closer in the Fantasy rankings. | | Trade candidates | | Mason Miller, AthleticsCamilo Doval, GiantsDavid Bednar, PiratesPete Fairbanks, Rays Paul Sewald, Diamondbacks | | There could be a few names I'm missing here, but Miller is the key one. The Athletics reportedly looked into trading him at the deadline, and given his history of elbow injuries, the idea of trading him when he's currently healthy and putting up elite numbers makes a lot of sense. The downside, of course, is that if he stays healthy, he's arguably the best high-leverage reliever in baseball, being paid way under market value for several more years. But if the A's can get a blue chip prospect or two out of some team, it would be hard to turn down. | | Every other name listed here would represent a buy-low candidate, ideally for a high-payroll team that can afford to take on a larger salary in the hopes of getting a bounceback. | | Top SPaRPs to know for 2025 | | Bowden Francis , Blue Jays – Francis added a splitter to his arsenal mid-season and went on a dominant run to close out the 2024 season, posting a 1.53 ERA over his final nine starts. There was plenty of BABIP help along the way (.125 in that stretch), but the splitter did help him miss barrels in a way that suggests he could be an above-average pitcher moving forward, as his 3.42 FIP in that stretch shows. There's plenty to be skeptical about, but in a pretty weak year for SPaRPs, Francis is the one I think belongs in your lineup in Week 1 next season. Drew Rasmussen , Rays – Whether Rasmussen can hold up to a full season as a starter remains an extremely open question, but the upside is absolutely going to be worth chasing with one of your last picks in any league, but especially H2H leagues. Since joining the Rays, he has a 2.72 ERA and 1.031 WHIP while starting in 50 of his 72 appearances. I don't expect him to sustain the velocity jump he had out of the bullpen last season, but it does bode well for his chances of remaining effective coming off Tommy John surgery. Assuming he's in the Rays rotation, he should be a useful starter as long as he stays on the mound. Jackson Jobe, Tigers – Jobe got a cup of coffee at the end of the 2024 season and was surprisingly hittable across four nondescript innings, generating just two swinging strikes on 48 pitches. That being said, his stuff rated out well per the Stuff+ metric, and I'm not sure you can find a single prospect evaluator who doesn't think Jobe is at least a mid-rotation starter if he stays healthy. There might be less immediate strikeout upside than you'd think, given his pedigree, but Jobe should be in the Tigers rotation early on, and the upside is obviously worth chasing. Nick Martinez, Reds – Martinez is returning to the Reds after accepting the qualifying offer and eschewing free agency, which certainly isn't the best-case scenario for his value, despite the certainty. As FanGraphs' Michael Rosen pointed out this week in a great breakdown, Martinez succeeds by generating a ton of weak contact and limiting free passes, and that's an approach that can leave a pitcher with an awfully thin margin for error, especially in a hitter's park like Cincinnati. But he has a 3.31 ERA in three seasons as a swingman since returning from Japan and thrived as a starter for the Reds last season. I don't think there's a ton of upside here, but I could see a Seth Lugo-like outcome, to name one similar pitcher who made the transition back to the rotation in his 30s. Jeff Hoffman, FA – Last week, The Athletic's Eno Sarris wrote about some pitchers who could follow in Lugo, Reynaldo Lopez, and Garrett Crochet's footsteps to make the leap from the bullpen to the rotation, and Hoffman was one of the names highlighted – good timing, as Hoffman is reportedly being looked at as a possible starter by teams on the free agent market. He has a strong three-pitch arsenal that should stand up to both reduced stuff expectations and multiple looks through the batting order that comes with starting and if he gets the chance to start, he should at least be worth a late-round flier in H2H leagues. Griffin Jax, Twins – The Twins are also considering moving Jax to the rotation in hopes of seeing if the gigantic leap he's made in velocity since the last time he started regularly can stick. He has a legitimate five-pitch mix that should perform well as a starter if he can sustain above-average velocity while pitching deeper into games. Jax has only finished even two innings in an outing once since 2022, so it is very much an open question how his stuff would hold up to longer outings, but it's an experiment worth trying out for the Twins and one I could get very excited about if we get positive early returns in the spring. | | | | | | | | UEFA Champions League Channel | | USL Championship Final | Get more of the UEFA Champions League with our 24-hour streaming channel, serving nonstop goals, highlights and full match replays. Find it on the CBS Sports App, PlutoTV and streaming on Paramount+.
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