| | | | Thursday, October 31, 2024 | | At the start of the 2024 season, the outfield felt like a shockingly shallow position for Fantasy. Looking back at ADP before the 2024 season, and you had Nolan Jones being drafted as the No. 15 outfielder, Josh Lowe at No. 22, Lane Thomas at No. 26, Jordan Walker at No. 27, and Esteury Ruiz as OF32, among others. | | These were players with some appeal, to be certain – for the most part, they were either recent top prospects or coming off at least partial-season breakouts – but even without the benefit of hindsight, it's clear those weren't the types of bets we should have been making as core pieces of our Fantasy lineups. | | Rest assured, your options are a lot better in the outfield this time around. We don't have ADP data yet – I just did my first mock draft of the offseason Tuesday night! – but just looking at Scott White's top 30 in the outfield makes me feel a lot better about the state of the position heading into 2025. | | Instead of Nolan Jones coming off 106 good games in 2024 as a top-15 outfielder, we've got historically good, young players like Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill in the top-15 – not to mention James Wood , who isn't as proven as Jones was, but is a universally well regarded young player who more than held his own as a very young rookie in 2024. Instead of a 26-year-old Lowe with platoon concerns, we've got the likes of Wyatt Langford as a fringe top-20 option coming off a September where it looked like he really put it together as a 22-year-old. | | | | Don't want to bet on young guys with limited track records? Well, proven studs like Michael Harris, Mike Trout, and Luis Robert are outside of the top 18 in the hopes of a bit better luck with regards to health in 2025, or you can bet on the likes of Riley Greene or Seiya Suzuki to take another step forward, without the downside of last year's bets. | | I think the best sign of the strength of the position might be Lawrence Butler looking more like a No. 3 outfielder at best, coming off a stretch where he posted a .943 OPS and a 25-20 pace over the final four months of 2024. I'm skeptical of Butler's chances of repeating it, but it's a lot easier to stomach that bet when it's your No. 3 outfielder – I drafted Jones in one league as my first outfielder last season. That won't be happening in 2025. | | Of course, there will be busts in 2025. Nobody is saying there won't be. But the risky players are simply going to cost less in the outfield than they did a year ago, and that should make navigating the position a lot easier on Draft Day. To the point where I think outfield is probably the second-strongest offensive position in Fantasy behind only shortstop. Let's get into why, exactly that is, and preview the state of the position heading into the offseason. And if you missed it, we've covered every other offensive position so far, with starting and relief pitcher coming next week: | | Early 2025 Rankings | | CatcherFirst base Second base Third baseShortstop Outfield | | State of the Position | | CatcherFirst base Second base Third baseShortstop | | | | 2024 Outfield Review | | 2024 top-24 finishers | | Aaron Judge: 0.322 - 122 - 58 - 144 - 10Juan Soto: 0.288 - 128 - 41 - 109 - 7 Brent Rooker: 0.293 - 82 - 39 - 112 - 11Jarren Duran: 0.285 - 111 - 21 - 75 - 34 Kyle Schwarber : 0.248 - 110 - 38 - 104 - 5Yordan Alvarez: 0.308 - 88 - 35 - 86 - 6Corbin Carroll: 0.231 - 121 - 22 - 74 - 35 Teoscar Hernandez: 0.272 - 84 - 33 - 99 - 12Jazz Chisholm: 0.256 - 74 - 24 - 73 - 40 Anthony Santander: 0.235 - 91 - 44 - 102 - 2Jackson Merrill: 0.292 - 77 - 24 - 90 - 16Brenton Doyle: 0.260 - 82 - 23 - 72 - 30 Jurickson Profar: 0.28 - 94 - 24 - 85 - 10Jackson Chourio: 0.275 - 80 - 21 - 79 - 22Julio Rodriguez: 0.273 - 76 - 20 - 68 - 24 Bryan Reynolds: 0.275 - 73 - 24 - 88 - 10Ian Happ: 0.242 - 89 - 25 - 86 - 13 Mookie Betts : 0.289 - 75 - 19 - 75 - 16Seiya Suzuki: 0.283 - 74 - 21 - 73 - 16Oneil Cruz: 0.259 - 72 - 21 - 76 - 22Spencer Steer: 0.225 - 74 - 20 - 92 - 25 Brandon Nimmo: 0.224 - 88 - 23 - 90 - 15Nick Castellanos: 0.254 - 80 - 23 - 86 - 6 Alec Burleson: 0.269 - 71 - 21 - 78 - 9 | | Carroll is one of the most interesting players in Fantasy for 2025. He ended up more or less doing what we expected (minus the batting average), but it was not a smooth ride whatsoever – he had an OPS as low as .608 as late as July 6. Carroll admitted he tried to make some changes to his swing last offseason that backfired, and if you believe the second half was more indicative of what to expect moving forward, he'll be a steal anytime he falls out of the first round. | | Biggest Breakout from 2024 | | Brenton Doyle, Rockies | | There are a few other directions you can go with this one – Jackson Merrill and Jurickson Profar both being among the more obvious alternatives – but I'll give Doyle the nod since we're going to talk about a few of those other guys later on, and Doyle deserves some mention. He finished as the No. 12 outfielder in Fantasy in 2024 after being drafted outside the top 100 at the position in most leagues, and he's a good example of when it can make sense to pay attention to defense for Fantasy. If he wasn't such a good defender, Doyle may not have even been given a chance to be an everyday player after posting a sub-.600 OPS in 2023. | | But he's arguably the best defensive outfielder in baseball, and that kept him in the lineup long enough to take a big step forward, it might not just be a fluke; his .333 xwOBA was actually slightly higher than his .328 actual mark, which is the opposite of what you'd expect at Coors Field. I don't know if I buy that Doyle is quite that good, but Coor is going to keep helping cover for his limitations to a certain extent, and his defense will insulate him from playing time risk. He's not exactly safe, but I think Doyle is a fine top-30 outfielder for 2025. | | Biggest Bust from 2024 | | Ronald Acuña, Braves | | Typically, I wouldn't go with an injured player here, but Acuña was pacing to be a huge bust long before he tore his ACL. In 49 games, Acuña had just four homers and 16 steals, putting him on pace for 13 homers and 52 steals over 159 games; he had 41 and 73 steals in his historic 2023 season. I think Acuña likely would have been much better as a hitter if not for the injury, but it wasn't just a fluke that he started off that cold; Acuña's strikeout jumped from 11.4% to 23.9%, and his quality of contact was the worst we've ever seen from him. He earned his slow start. | | Just like I suspect Acuña would have been better moving forward if not for the injury, I expect he'll be better than that in 2025, too. But I'm certainly not guaranteeing it – 2023 looks like a massive outlier for Acuña's career in terms of strikeout rate, and we know he struggled to consistently elevate the ball and hit for power in 2022 when he was also coming back from a torn ACL. Acuña's upside is the No. 1 player in Fantasy, obviously, but I don't want to completely write off what we saw in 2024, especially since he'll be coming back from a significant knee injury for the second time in three years. I think you can make a case for Acuña as high as OF3, where Scott White has him ranked, but I also wouldn't argue too hard if someone ranked him as low as OF9. | | | | Biggest rankings movers from 2024 to 2025 | | Up: Jackson Merrill, Padres; Brenton Doyle, Rockies; Jurickson Profar, Padres | | Even if you just take the final two weeks of draft season, when it was already clear Merrill would make the Padres Opening Day roster, he was still being drafted outside of the top 60 outfielders last March, with an overall ADP of just 256.6. There's a chance he will be the biggest riser in ADP at any position from 2024 to 2025, and I don't really see much reason to be skeptical about the 21-year-old star. He acquitted himself very well in all aspects of the game as a rookie, got better as the season went on, and ended up with a .376 expected wOBA, even better than his very good .352 mark. There's a chance Merrill is just a superstar for the next decade. The only argument against Merrill is that he struggled enough against lefties (.646 OPS) that it might drag his entire line down, but I really don't have many concerns here. | | Now Profar, I have no idea what to do about. At 31 years old, he suddenly just became a better player than he had ever been before, and nothing in the underlying data suggests it was a fluke. He started hitting the ball harder than he ever had before, but without having to sacrifice anything on the plate discipline side, and there really wasn't much erosion as the season went on; his .794 OPS in the second half wasn't quite as good as his first-half production, but it hardly counts as a collapse. The underlying numbers did get worse as the season went on, with his xwOBA dropping to .333 over his final 250 plate appearances, but that's still an above-average mark! My instinct is to write it off as a fluke and fade Profar for 2025 based on his lack of track record, but I really don't have as much conviction as I'd like, given my inherent skepticism. | | Down: Julio Rodriguez, Mariners; Luis Robert, White Sox; Nolan Jones, Rockies | | Rodriguez ended up 15th at outfield, which is a testament to how good he was to close out the season, as his OPS was as low as .660 as late as Aug. 27, when he was on pace for just 16 homers. He would go on to hit .349/.386/.597 with nine homers over his final 29 games to somewhat salvage his season, but I still don't think anyone would really balk at calling him one of the biggest busts at the position, given how high expectations were coming in. Rodriguez was coming off a 32-homer, 37-steal season in 2023 and was the clear No. 2 outfielder in drafts, occasionally even being drafted ahead of Acuña, but now he might not even be a first-rounder for 2025. It's only a drop of 10-12 spots, but at that point in the draft, it matters an awful lot. | | Robert was another candidate for "biggest bust," as he struggled through another injury-plagued season en route to by far the worst numbers of his career. He hit .224/.278/.379 with just 14 homers, 47 runs, and 35 RBI in 100 games, with his 23 steals being just about the only saving grace for his season. I suspect Robert's price is going to collapse in 2025 drafts, and with the underlying numbers backing up his struggles, I'm sure plenty of players will be out on Robert entirely. I'm hoping to see a trade away from the hapless White Sox, but I'm likely to still rank Robert pretty close to the top 20 in the outfield. | | The theory behind Jones was that, whether you believe in the skill set or not, playing half his games in Coors Field should still keep him Fantasy relevant thanks to his combo of power and speed. He was never really healthy, it seems, and he scuffled badly, including an ugly .255/.372/.328 line at Coors Field. He might not even be drafted in most 12-team leagues this season, and even in deeper formats, he is probably just a late-round flier at this point. | | Offseason preview | | Who needs an upgrade most? | | Shortstop is actually a fairly big area of need for a surprising number of would-be contenders. Here are the five who could most use an upgrade: | | Royals – Among playoff teams, nobody got less production from the outfield than the Royals, whose outfielders collectively hit just .222/.281/.367.Mets – We've reached the point where Starling Marte probably needs to be a full-time DH, and outside of Brandon Nimmo, this team doesn't really have a viable full-time, starting-caliber outfielder on the roster. They'll be in the Juan Soto sweepstakes, and one of Marte or Neil Walker seems likely to be in the outfield when healthy, but there's still plenty of room for an upgrade, with a front office that will obviously be incentivized to make a big splash, whether they bring Pete Alonso back or not. Pirates – Moving Oneil Cruz to center field answers one question for the Pirates, and Bryan Reynolds is obviously a pretty good answer at one of the corner spots, so they might decide they are good in the outfield. But between the other corner spot and DH (not to mention first base), the Pirates have some obvious holes on the roster that need to be filled if they want to make the leap to contending. The Pirates might be more likely to try to take a swing in trade rather than free agency, but they should probably be open to upgrades wherever they can find them. Reds – The one place the Reds don't really have an abundance of young talent is in the outfield. They need to make some trades to consolidate the infield, and while the primary focus will likely be on getting some starting pitching, this is absolutely a team that should be looking at upgrading from the Jake Fraley and TJ Friedls of the world. White Sox – On the one hand, you could argue that the White Sox are so hopeless that it doesn't really matter whether they upgrade anywhere. I don't agree, and I would bet they'll at least make a few signings to try to get something out of the outfield spots in their lineup. It'll still be bad, but there is an opportunity for some buy-low free agents to latch on here and create some value; alternatively, they could find a couple of starting outfielders through trades of Robert and Garrett Crochet. | | Top impending free agents | | Juan SotoAnthony Santander Cody Bellinger*Teoscar HernandezTyler O'Neill Jurickson Profar | | *Has a player option | | The actual list of outfield free agents is obviously much longer than this and includes names like Michael Conforto, Alex Verdugo, Mark Canha, and Hunter Renfroe, who will probably be starting somewhere next season and may even be fantasy-relevant wherever that is. But those aren't exactly names we'll be waiting with bated breath to see where they end up. And Soto is the kind of superstar where it doesn't really matter where he plays – all told, you'd rather him be with the Yankees than go back to San Diego, where he notably struggled (relatively speaking), but Soto is going to be a superstar no matter where he ends up. And, for what it's worth, I don't really expect him to go anywhere. | | Santander might be the most interesting player on this list as a kind of one-dimensional power hitter potentially leaving a tough home park. It's primarily a tough home park for right-handed hitters, and Santander is a switch-hitter, so it doesn't impact him as much as someone like Ryan Mountcastle , but I think, on the whole, you'd rather see Santander move to a friendlier home park. He had a .756 OPS at home last season and an .866 mark on the road, though it's worth noting, that wasn't the case in previous seasons, so we shouldn't necessarily expect Santander to take a step forward if he lands in a better home park. He's almost certainly going to regress from his 2024 production no matter where he plays, so we're mostly looking for the softest landing spot there. | | O'Neill is another very interesting one because the move from St. Louis to the much more friendly (to right-handed hitters) Fenway Park went exactly how we hoped it would in 2024, and yet he enters free agency with as many questions as ever after injuries limited him to just 113 games. O'Neill has continuously struggled to stay healthy, and while he did hit 31 homers in just those 113 games, he also struck out a career-high 33.6% of the time, another significant red flag in his profile. O'Neill doesn't seem super likely to garner a significant, long-term contract, and we've seen that he isn't necessarily a sure bet to produce anywhere, so we're left hoping he lands in the right spot – and the Red Sox don't seem like an especially good bet to bring him back, given a looming glut in the outfield. I wouldn't be surprised if O'Neill finds a surprisingly cold market for his services. | | Trade candidates | | Luis Robert, White SoxJarren Duran, Red SoxTaylor Ward, Angels Nick Castellanos, PhilliesMJ Melendez, Royals | | Robert and Ward are the most obvious candidates, given how little their teams are likely to have to play for in 2025. Duran is a surprise, and that might be me going out on a limb a bit too far – I haven't necessarily seen any indication that the Red Sox are considering trading him, but I do think they should at least be open to it, as Duran is arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason and is already 28 years old. That's not old, necessarily, but it does suggest Duran is at or near his peak and might not age as well as you'd think, given his relative lack of experience. Selling coming off a dominant season like the one he just had might not be a bad idea, even if it would be a very tough pill to swallow. | | Melendez stands out as more of a buy-low candidate for some enterprising team out there. He's a former top prospect who has obvious major-league caliber skills, particularly with regard to power, where he remained in the 74th percentile for hard-hit rate and 80th percent in average exit velocity in 2024. He strikes out around a quarter of the time, which isn't a prohibitive issue, but his struggles with breaking balls might be – he had just a .284 xwOBA and a massive 37.4% whiff rate against those pitches in 2024. He's a fixer-upper and one who probably shouldn't be playing the outfield full time, which makes him a tough fit on a Royals team that both needs more help in the outfield and needs to make sure they keep playing time available at the DH spot for Salvador Perez. Melendez just might not fit here, and it might be on some other organization to try to fix him. | | Top 2025 prospects to know | | Jasson Dominguez , Yankees – Not only does Dominguez still qualify as a prospect, but he won't even be 22 years old until February. The Yankees' unwillingness to just give him an everyday opportunity this season does bring up some questions about how ready they think he truly is, but he's going to have an everyday role in 2025 and has 27 homers and 57 steals in 177 games between Double-A and Triple-A, with potential for impact power. He remains a good bet, and his price should be extremely reasonable for 2025. Roman Anthony , Red Sox – The Red Sox have a bunch of really good prospects, and Anthony might be the best of them. Still just 20 until May of next year, he's already gotten to Triple-A and more than held his own there, hitting .344/.463/.519 with as many walks as strikeouts in 35 games, and sported a very strong .367 xwOBA while there. The Red Sox have something of a glut in the outfield, but Anthony is the kind of prospect who might just force the issue as soon as Spring Training. I could see him being one of the real risers in Fantasy drafts next spring if he dominates in the Grapefruit League. Emmanuel Rodriguez, Twins – The first of two Twins outfield prospects we'll talk about today, Rodriguez is the further along of the two, though in what will be a recurring theme, his timetable is a little clouded by an injury-marred 2024. Rodriguez walks a ton – 51 times in 47 games across four levels in 2024 – and has plus power potential, but he also might hit .250 and probably won't steal many bases as he ages. This might be a "better in real life than Fantasy" profile, and it reminds me a bit of fellow Twin Edouard Julien . However, if he remains active on the basepaths, there's a path to Fantasy relevance in 2024, albeit a weird one not many players these days are walking. Walker Jenkins , Twins – There's a lot to like about Jenkins as a prospect, but with just six games under his belt above A ball – and just 108 games total across two seasons – I don't necessarily know if he's on the fast track to the majors. He has a terrific approach at the plate, decent speed, and burgeoning power, but he's probably more like a second-half-of-2025 guy if that. Chase DeLauter, Guardians – DeLauter has played just 90 games across two professional seasons, but he looked like he might be on the fast track to the majors before foot and hamstring injuries pretty much derailed his 2024 campaign. He's been very productive when healthy, hitting .317/.387/.517 despite some scouting concerns about the viability of his swing, and he could factor into the Guardian's plans as early as Spring Training. It helps that he's off to a solid start in the Arizona Fall League. Let's just hope he can stay upright long enough to give us a good look. Owen Caissie, Cubs – Caissie broke out in 2023 and followed it up with a solid 2024 as a 21-year-old at Triple-A, and I'm surprised he doesn't get more hype in prospect circles. He hits the ball hard and has a good eye at the plate, though there is some contact concern, he doesn't run, so he'll need to hit for real power to be an impact player. Having proven himself at the highest level in the minors, his chance might come early in 2025. Spencer Jones , Yankees – It says something about how much hype there was around Jones entering the season that a season in which he had a .789 OPS seems to have really hurt his prospect standing. Or maybe it would be better to say it says something about Jones' skill set that he could still manage a .789 OPS despite striking out 37% of the time. He's a big-time athlete who can hit the ball a mile, but that strikeout rate is prohibitive, and the breakout hasn't quite come yet. I'm very skeptical he's ever going to figure it out, but if he can get the strikeout rate down below 30%, even Jones could be an impact player, albeit one who will probably have to prove it at Triple-A after his 2024. | | | | | | | | Pushing The Pile | | Big Ten on CBS | Catch up on this week's episodes of Pushing the Pile where football insiders Kyle Long and Mike Renner will take you behind the tape for recaps, previews, news and insights. Listen anywhere you find your podcasts!
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