The New ‘Cold War’ in Africa

Enter Russia and its notorious Kremlin-linked private military outfit, the Wagner group.

“Mali and Burkina Faso are both looking for new partners to try to secure their territories,” said Rida Lyammouri, senior fellow at the Policy Center for the New South. “Wagner is … an attractive partner because it doesn’t question or put conditions for collaborations.”

Russian assistance is also a lot more politically advantageous domestically, given the widespread anti-French sentiment throughout the region because of the history of colonialism and the efforts by Paris to interfere in the region’s countries even after they won their freedom.

Indeed, in Burkina Faso, the most recent coup appeared to be linked to frustrations in some parts of the military that the former ruling junta was not developing close enough ties with Russia. Meanwhile, the Nigerien president has faced anti-government protests over his continuing strong relationship with France.

Yet Russia’s assistance carries its own risks.

Wagner operatives have increasingly been implicated in human rights abuses in Mali, including the massacre of over 300 people in Moura last March.

Additionally, “Russian engagement in the Sahel is very low-cost [financially],” said Nossiter.

The gains for Russia are clear.

“It is distracting the West and diminishing the West’s symbolic power,” Nossiter said. “This is an influence battle that may also help them diplomatically, especially at the U.N.”

But Russia’s lack of willingness, or capacity — considering its war in Ukraine — to assist in a more in-depth manner may prevent it from being particularly helpful militarily in the Sahel.

Russian operatives, “do not have the same level of training, expertise or technical nous as the French. They have no air support either,” contended Nathaniel Powell, Africa analyst at Oxford Analytica, speaking with OZY.

Indeed, Mali withdrew from the regional G5 Sahel grouping — which also includes Burkina Faso, Chad, Mauritania and Niger — in June amid concerns of excessive French influence. Mali has held 46 Ivorian soldiers in prison since July, claiming they were seeking to destabilize the Malian capital of Bamako. And in September, Mali accused the Nigerien president of not really being Nigerien, while Niger halted oil product deliveries to Mali.

This split in the region creates an obstacle for counterterrorism, even as West African leaders agreed in December to form a new regional peacekeeping force to intervene against jihadism. “We will witness further division rather than unity between countries in the region, which will complicate further the fight against al-Qaida and IS at the regional level,” said Lyammouri.

If it is established that, as Ghana’s president claimed in December, Burkina Faso is deploying Wagner operatives on its territory, things could get worse, said experts. “There will be some impact regionally if Burkina Faso gets involved with Wagner,” explained Powell. “This could have an impact on regional military cooperation not just with Niger but elsewhere.”

And amid the heightened competition for Africa, U.S. President Joe Biden declared in December that Washington was “all in” on the continent, while hosting leaders from African nations for a rare summit.

But the interests of African — and especially West African — states are likely to be forgotten in this greater geopolitical scramble for influence, warned experts.

“The idea that Russia’s gain is the West’s loss is not how West African states see it, and creating a zero-sum mentality makes it very clear that West African interests are not being taken into account,” said Nossiter.

At the same time, Western outrage and attempts to prevent Russian involvement are patronizing and unlikely to change West African interest in Russia, he said.

Powell concurred, adding, “The problem is that in Paris and Washington there is such a focus on the Russian dimension. Yes, Wagner are doing a lot of bad stuff … but they are one factor among many factors that can explain the local political dynamic.”

As Russia and France battle for clout, the ultimate winner will likely be jihadi groups as such tension “will only complicate any regional collaboration” against these terror outfits, warned Lyammouri.

But Nossiter raised another concern too. The tussle between Moscow and Paris is focusing attention on security assistance from the two powers, while a more appropriate solution to the crisis is fading. “A stabilization strategy must be about governance and dialogue first and then security,” he said. “The arrival of Russia has not changed things that much; the governance aspect has just become more distant.”