The Long Game on Iran; After the U.S. Strikes: What's Next?

The Long Game on Iran; After the U.S. Strikes: What's Next?

By Winfield Myers ● Jun 22, 2025

Smart Brevity® count: 7.5 mins...1999 words

The U.S. strikes on Iran have severely damaged Iran’s nuclear facilities and dealt a blow to the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy. As Gregg Roman argues in our lead article today, the strikes weren’t the result of impulse, but were the “execution of a plan that began in 2017.” Roman warns, however, that “the regime’s American supporters will regroup. They’ll blame escalation. They’ll warn of wider war. They’ll do what they always do: serve Tehran’s interests while claiming to serve America’s.” “This,” he says, “is where the real fight begins.”

We follow with additional analyses by Michael Rubin, Jim Hanson, Umud Shokri, Sirwan Kajjo, and Shay Khatiri.

MEF Experts Analyze Historic U.S. Strikes on Iran in Saturday Night Broadcast

Philadelphia, PA – June 22, 2025 – As news broke of a historic U.S. military operation against Iran, the Middle East Forum (MEF) went live, providing immediate, in-depth analysis from a panel of distinguished military and policy experts. Hosted by MEF Executive Director @GreggRoman, the broadcast featured commentary from Eric Navarro (USMCR), MEF Chief Editor and former Special Forces operator Jim Hanson, and MEF Director of Policy Analysis Michael Rubin, who together unpacked the strategic, political, and military dimensions of the strikes that have fundamentally altered the Middle East landscape.

To read a summary of the discussion on X, click here.

To watch it on YouTube, click here.

The Long Game: Taking the Fight to America's Pro-Tehran Apologists

In a coordinated operation, American and Israeli forces dismantled Iran’s nuclear program, executing a plan initiated in 2017—no thanks to America’s pro-Tehran apologists.

Why it matters: This decisive action ends Iran's three-decade-long nuclear ambitions and tests Tehran's next move.

Iran faces a critical choice: retaliate at the risk of regime downfall or concede and negotiate.

The big picture: The operation showcases the unyielding resolve and strategic brilliance of U.S. and Israeli forces.

From covert intelligence maneuvers to precise military execution, the operation left Iran’s nuclear ambitions in ruins.

Iran’s apologists in America: For years, an alliance of convenience united American isolationists with Tehran’s apologists. Strange bedfellows: far-left activists and self-styled conservative voices, all singing from the same hymnal. All pushing the same line: American retreat equals wisdom.

Groups like the Quincy Institute and NIAC have long masqueraded as peace advocates while serving Iran’s interests.

This exposure demands accountability, ensuring these voices are scrutinized and countered with unwavering vigilance.

What’s next: The path forward demands securing nuclear materials and dismantling Tehran’s influence networks.

America must decisively counter domestic and international narratives that threaten its strategic victory.

The stakes: The message is unequivocal: “America is back,” asserting its dominance and challenging adversaries like Beijing and Moscow.

What comes next matters more than what happened tonight. The regime will survive or fall based on its next moves. Its American apologists will regroup, or scatter based on ours. The choice, as always, is between clarity and confusion, between strength and surrender. Tonight, America and Israel chose clarity. Tomorrow, we maintain it.

To read the full article, click here.

U.S. Strikes Iran: How Will the Islamic Republic Respond?

Jim Hanson of MEF outlines Iran's potential reaction to the recent strike on their nuclear facilities, shedding light on strategic considerations.

Why it matters: Iran's decision-making at this critical juncture could significantly impact global security dynamics.

They are likely to attempt a face-saving gesture before potentially approaching the negotiation table.

What they're saying: Hanson raises doubts about the current leadership dynamics within Iran.

"I don’t think anyone knows who is actually going to make the decision," Hanson stated, suggesting internal power struggles.

The stakes: Iran's response will determine its future standing and stability.

Any aggressive action, particularly on U.S. soil, could precipitate the regime's downfall: “An attack on soil would be the end of the Iranian regime. So I don’t believe that’ll be it,” he said.

To watch the full segment, click here.

The Next Iran ‘Nightmare': The Nuclear Material

Early on June 22, 2025, U.S. bombers unleashed bunker buster bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

Why it matters: The strikes dealt a crippling blow to Iran's nuclear ambitions and undermined Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s authority.

President Trump has warned of additional targets if Iran does not stand down.

The stakes: Despite Iran's threats of targeting American bases and citizens, Trump's actions have shattered the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program and Khamenei’s credibility.

Khamenei's martyrdom rhetoric may backfire, forcing Iran to consider surrendering its nuclear ambitions.

What’s next: The regime must decide: retaliate and risk annihilation or concede defeat.

U.S. and allied forces need to secure Iran’s nuclear materials, potentially involving trusted allies like India to handle the removal and analysis safely.

Indian specialists might truck it to Chabahar and then ship it to India for inspection, analysis and safe-keeping.

The challenge: Trump opposes U.S. "boots on the ground," but may need to reconsider logistics to ensure material security.

The danger of loose nuclear material reaching terrorists remains high, demanding immediate action.

To read the full article, click here.

Destroy Iran’s Ethnic Azeri Revolutionary Guard Units

As Israeli forces target Iran’s nuclear sites, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expands the mission to include regime change, with Defense Minister Israel Katz advocating for Supreme Leader Khamenei's assassination.

Why it matters: U.S. officials disagree with any decapitation strike for a simple reason: They fear the vacuum that Israel might create in Iran if an Israeli strike kills Khamenei.

This does not mean the Trump administration wants to preserve Khamenei’s rule; rather, they hope they can subject him to sign a humiliating surrender and then transfer power to an interim authority.

The stakes: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps poses a significant obstacle to any power shift.

With its complex structure, differing motivations among its ranks, and historical brutality, the Guard's role is critical.

Azeri factor: The Azeri Revolutionary Guard units, known for their harsh crackdown on minorities, are pivotal in maintaining regime control.

Israel must consider targeting these units to dismantle the regime's oppressive capabilities.

What’s next: The focus is on preventing further repression and securing a peaceful transition.

Targeting the ethnic Azeri units could protect lives and weaken the regime’s hold, winning hearts and minds across Iran.

To read the full article, click here.

Could a Strait of Hormuz Closure Stop All Persian Gulf Oil and Gas Exports?

Nearly 20 million barrels of oil, accounting for 20 percent of world oil consumption, pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily. As regional tensions rise, Iran’s threats to close this vital choke point jeopardize energy security worldwide.

Why it matters: Disruptions could lead to oil prices surging above $100 per barrel, exacerbating inflation and economic instability globally.

The region's marine logistics would be further complicated by rising insurance costs and shipping hazards.

The stakes: GCC members like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are investing in alternate pipelines to reduce reliance on the Strait.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and the UAE's Abu Dhabi to Fujairah pipeline offer alternatives but can’t fully offset the Strait's capacity.

What’s next: New transport routes are emerging, such as Saudi-Omani land crossings and Iran’s Goreh to Jask pipeline.

However, these face capacity issues and geopolitical challenges, limiting their impact.

The challenge: The fragility of these channels and the possibility of escalation with sabotage of Saudi infrastructure and Emirati oil installations near Fujairah could undercut energy supply for longer.

Comprehensive strategies are needed to mitigate these risks and secure energy supplies.

To read the full article, click here.

After Striking Iranian Sites, the U.S. Should Strengthen Its Presence in Kurdish Regions of Iraq and Syria

With U.S. warplanes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, America officially enters the Israel-Iran conflict, prompting heightened threats from Iranian proxies.

Why it matters: U.S. military installations in Iraq and Syria are vulnerable to Iranian-backed attacks, necessitating immediate reinforcement.

Bolstering defenses, especially in Kurdish regions, is crucial to counter drone and rocket threats.

The stakes: The U.S. should deploy advanced defense systems like the MIM-104 Patriot and THAAD to deter sophisticated attacks.

These systems are vital to protect U.S. personnel and Kurdish allies, ensuring regional stability.

What’s next: Strengthening defenses would send a strong message to Iran, its proxies, and other malign regional actors that the U.S. is committed to defending its interests and allies throughout the region.

The strategic deployment of air defenses ensures the safety of U.S. forces and supports counterterrorism efforts.

The challenge: Installing powerful air defenses at U.S. facilities Iraq and Syria is not only essential for protecting U.S. personnel and assets but also critical to safeguard local Kurdish partners who have been targeted because of their alliance with the United States and remain vital in counterterrorism operations.

Comprehensive strategies are needed to effectively counter potential threats and maintain stability.

To read the full article, click here.

Will the Islamic Republic Use Muharram to Whip up Fervor?

On June 21, 2025, President Trump announced U.S. airstrikes on Iran's nuclear sites, strategically timed ahead of the Shi'ite holy month of Muharram, starting June 26.

Why it matters: The Iranian regime exploits Muharram to galvanize religious fervor and martyrdom, potentially intensifying regional tensions.

The timing of the strikes aims to disrupt Iran's narrative and counter its mobilization efforts.

The stakes: The regime will likely use Muharram to strengthen its grip, equating Supreme Leader Khamenei with historical Shi'ite martyrs.

This period is crucial for Iran to project power and suppress dissent, leveraging religious passion to maintain control.

What’s next: The U.S. and Israel should aim to conclude the conflict after the Muharram peak on July 6 but before Arba’in on August 14 to align with cultural dynamics.

Timing matters not just in terms of strikes and tactics, but also culture. Iranians may pour out to protest the regime once the war is over.

The challenge: Balancing military actions with cultural understanding is pivotal in influencing Iran's domestic and international stance.

A well-timed strategy can undermine the regime's narrative and empower opposition forces.

To read the full article, click here.

The Problem with Iran’s Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi

Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi stands as the most recognized opposition figure, but faces significant challenges in unifying Iran's political spectrum.

Why it matters: Pahlavi is seen as a symbol of Iran's golden age, capable of fostering unity amidst diverse political factions.

His vision centers on national unity and democracy, aiming to bridge liberal, republican, and monarchist divides.

The stakes: Organizing the Iranian diaspora and internal opposition can be like herding cats. Reza Pahlavi, however, chooses not to wrangle them for fear of the dictator label.

His passive approach could be perceived as cowardice, hindering the unification of anti-regime forces.

What’s next: To solidify his position, Pahlavi must visit the region and engage directly with supporters, potentially setting up residence in Najaf.

This bold move would challenge the regime and inspire Iranian unity.

The challenge: His own organization reflects his hands-off political style. To describe it as chaotic would be an understatement. Multiple associates all claim to speak on his behalf.

With the Islamic Republic teetering, however, he can no longer delay. If he is unable to manage his own organization effectively, he gives credence to critics who say he cannot manage a constitutional convention, let alone a country.

Pahlavi means well, but unless he imposes discipline on his movement, and until he spends as much time managing as he does virtue signaling about the potential for a better future, he will ensure that he will never fulfill his true ambition.

Not only would that be a personal tragedy, but it would represent a tragedy for the Iranian people who deserve far better and a real shot at parliamentary democracy.

To read the full article, click here.

Thank you for reading our continuing coverage of war, now including the U.S. role and domestic events in America. As events unfold, count on the Middle East Forum to bring you continuing updates and analyses. Please share this with a friend and let us know what you think of our ongoing coverage.

Thank you,

Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, Middle East Forum
Director, Campus Watch

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