I know we've spent a lot of time on Gerrit Cole this week, but we have to talk about him again today. Because the latest updates continue to sound a lot more ominous than the headlines might make you think.

I'm referring specifically to a New York Post report from Thursday night that referred to the Yankees breathing a "sigh of relief" over Cole's prognosis after visiting noted sports surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache this week. Cole had imaging and testing done on his balky right elbow, with ElAttrache apparently agreeing with the Yankees medical staff that "there is no tear in his UCL." Cole will rest up and rehab the injury over the coming weeks, with the report indicating "the belief is he will miss one to two months or perhaps just a bit more."

So, great news, right? Well … I'm not so sure. Because there's another part of the report that says this: 

"After Cole visited with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Thursday, the belief is the reigning Cy Young award winner ace can avoid Tommy John surgery."

Now, that's kind of hard to square with the "there is no tear in his UCL" part of the report. If there's no tear in the UCL, then it feels like there should be a whole heck of a lot more than a "belief" that Cole can avoid Tommy John surgery, right – Tommy John surgery, after all, is a repair of the UCL. And if there's no tear, doesn't it naturally follow that there would be no need for a repair of the ligament?

The wording of the reporting around Cole's injury has been cagey, to say the least, and while I'm not saying he will need Tommy John surgery, I am saying that we shouldn't view this report as proof that Cole is out of the woods just yet. At this point, it sure seems as if the one thing we can say is that Cole isn't having surgery right now, but it still sounds like there's pretty substantial risk here. I moved Cole down to around the 150 range in my rankings, and he'll stay there for the time being, because if he does come back in May and pitches like himself, that's a difference maker.

But I'm not treating it as a given at this point. Either that Cole comes back in May (or June!) or that he comes back and pitches like himself. If he does, that's great, but I'm not going to make an investment in him where my team needs that to happen. There's just still too many ways this can all go wrong from where I'm sitting. 

Cole's is the biggest injury update for this week, but he's far from the only one as we prepare another spring roundup. In the rest of today's newsletter, I've got the latest news you need to know from around baseball over the past week, plus a bunch of playing time notes, lineup speculation, and a whole bunch more as we prepare for the biggest week of the draft season. 

For those of you drafting this week, make sure you check out our Draft Prep Guide, which features absolutely everything you need to get ready for your draft from Scott White, Frank Stampfl and myself. And now, here's what you need to know from this past week across MLB:

If you can't get on the field, you can't contribute to a Fantasy team. Here's the latest injury news, and how it affects each players' value. 

Ronald Acuña (knee) is already back in the Braves lineup. Remember literally last week, when we were freaking out about Acuña's injury? He's going to be ready for Opening Day with plenty of time to spare. 

Devin Williams (back) is out three months. Williams has two stress fractures in his back, and he will be shut down from throwing for six weeks before ramping up for a mid-June return. He's probably still worth drafting in the final rounds, especially in leagues with IL spots, and I'm prioritizing Joel Payamps as the Brewers reliever to have for saves, though I know plenty of Fantasy analysts prefer Abner Uribe or even Trevor Megill. 

Aaron Judge (abdomen) hopes to be back this weekend . Judge hasn't swung a bat since being pulled from last Sunday's game, but the team expects him to return to the lineup for Saturday's game. I was, admittedly, a bit panicky when Judge's injury was first reported, but the fact that it wasn't related to last year's toe issue and seems to have gone away so quickly has calmed my fears. I'm still viewing him more like an early second-round pick, but he has as much upside as literally any player except Acuña. 

Kevin Gausman (shoulder) could face batters soon. Gausman has thrown a couple of bullpen sessions this week and is expected to progress to facing live batters at some point, though there have curiously been no updates on Gausman since Tuesday's bullpen session. He seems likely to "miss a turn or two in the rotation ," but at this point we have no reason to think Gausman won't be ready shortly after Opening Day. 

Corey Seager (abdomen) has begun swinging. Seager is working his way back from sports hernia surgery, and he was cleared to begin taking light swings earlier this week. It's still not clear if he's going to be ready for Opening Day, but if not, it shouldn't be long – it might come down to whether he can get into a few of the final spring games for the Rangers, but all signs point to him being ready early in April at this point. And, for what it's worth, Seager did make his return from a pretty lengthy IL stint last season without a rehab assignment. 

Josh Lowe (hip) is aiming to return this weekend. Lowe has been able to run for about a week and hopes to return to games either Sunday or Monday, with an eye on being ready for Opening Day on March 28. I've got Lowe as a bust for 2024, but that is not an opinion shared by the entire FBT staff, it is worth noting. 

Will Smith (back) was scratched from Wednesday's lineup. It was the Dodgers last game before flying to Korea for the season opening series, and as such, we haven't gotten any updates on his status. I didn't see anything about the Dodgers carrying an extra catcher for the two-game series, so hopefully that's a good sign, but it's something to monitor over the next few days just in case it ends up lingering. 

Eury Perez (finger) has been forced from his last two starts early. Perez is having an issue with a fingernail, which isn't too concerning aside from the impact it might have on his ability to get stretched out for the start of the season. He's thrown just eight innings over four starts, and given the recurring nature of the injury, the Marlins might want to give him a few extra days off before his next one. I don't have many concerns about Perez – we knew he wasn't throwing 180 innings this season anyway – but he might not be in your Week 1 lineup at this point. 

David Bednar (lat) is expected to throw off a mount for the first time this weekend. Bednar has been playing catch as he recovers from the lat strain, and while it's looking unlikely he'll be ready for Opening Day at this rate, it's not impossible. If he isn't it shouldn't be too long, and I think he's becoming a pretty tremendous value in drafts right now – I got him 121st overall in our 15-team mock draft last night. 

Sonny Gray (hamstring) could be ready for the first series of the season. Probably not for Opening Day, but he's been throwing off the mound in the bullpen in recent days and looks like he'll be ready shortly after Opening Day if all goes according to plan. Should we really be discounting him at this point?
Justin Verlander (shoulder) is close to facing hitters. Verlander is going to open the season on the IL, but it sounds like he's progressing well from the shoulder issue that delayed the start of his spring. He threw another bullpen session Thursday and should move on to face hitters at some point in the coming days, though whether that'll be in a sim game, live BP, or an actual spring game remains to be seen. I'm buying the dip on the veteran, since he continues to have no issues since reporting to camp. 

Josh Jung (calf) is expected to play in the Rangers' final two exhibition games. Jung has played in a few simulated games so far, but still hasn't been running much, which remains the last hurdle. He went 145th overall in our mock draft last night, and that's just way too late for someone who might be ready for Opening Day and has 30-homer, 200-RBI-plus-R upside. 

Kenley Jansen (lat) is expected to make his debut Friday. Jansen will pitch in game action for the first time this spring Friday, and said he thinks he'll need just five outings to be ready for the season. He remains the clear closer for the Red Sox barring a trade, and even if he is moved, I expect him to be the closer somewhere. 

Cedric Mullins (hamstring) was back in the lineup Thursday. Mullins wasn't even DHing, either; he played the field in his return to the lineup, a good sign that he's feeling just fine. There's plenty of risk in Mullins' profile these days, but at least he's healthy. 

Gavin Williams (elbow) is unlikely for Opening Day. Williams was scratched from his spring start last Sunday and will miss another Friday, putting his availability for the start of the season in doubt. However, he is expected to begin throwing again in a few days after an MRI showed no structural damage , and the hope is he won't be much behind schedule. A mid-April return would still give Williams plenty of breakout appeal, though there's obviously always risk anytime we're talking about spring elbow injuries. 

Kodai Senga (shoulder) will begin a throwing program March 22. That's one week later than initially hoped , and with Senga likely to need to start over from scratch like it's the beginning of Spring Training, that means even a best-case scenario likely won't see him back in the majors until early May. And any setback could restart the whole process. I like Senga as a mid-to-late round pick, but with so many pitchers dealing with delayed starts, you probably have to pick your favorite out of Verlander, Williams, Senga, Walker Buehler, and others unless you can sneak one through in the reserve rounds.  

Kyle Bradish (elbow) threw his first bullpen session Wednesday. He throw only fastballs in the 20-pitch session, but it was a good first step. Bradish is probably out until late-April in a best-case scenario, and there's plenty of risk along the way. 

Lucas Giolito (elbow) had season-ending surgery. Giolito did avoid Tommy John surgery, opting for the less severe internal brace repair on his right UCL, a procedure that carries a much quicker recovery time. He could be ready for the start of next season. 

Ian Happ (hamstring) is still on track for Opening Day. Happ has been out since the end of February with his hamstring injury, but if he's ready for Opening Day, he's going to be a very nice value – his ADP is 177.4 over the past 10 days in NFC drafts. 

Edward Cabrera (shoulder) has an impingement again. This is the same injury that landed Cabrera on the IL last season, and while he told reporters the injury doesn't feel as severe as last year's, it seems likely to keep him off the Opening Day roster. He's going to begin throwing "soon," but I'd be surprised if he was pitching in games before mid-April for the Marlins. 

Braxton Garrett (shoulder) is expected to throw his first live BP session this weekend. Garrett has been throwing for about three weeks, and will face batters for the first time this weekend. He's probably going to have to go through a typical Spring Training timetable to get back for the Marlins, so a mid-to-late April return seems reasonable if he avoids setbacks. Garrett is a decent bench stash, alongside Cabrera, but both have been surpassed in my eyes by a few other Marlins pitchers we'll discuss below. 

Taj Bradley (lat) will be shut down from throwing for two weeks . Bradley looks like he'll start the season on the IL at this point, though the good news is he's not dealing with any kind of tendon injury. He was scratched from Tuesday's start after feeling tightness in his pec, and will have to work his way through this injury before he is ready to return. As with Cabrera, we don't have any kind of official timetable beyond the two-week shutdown, but I'd be surprised if we saw Bradley before mid-April, and even that might be optimistic. 

Jeff McNeil (biceps) could be back in games Sunday. McNeil has been dealing with a left biceps injury since the start of March, but he progressed to hitting off a tee last week and should be able to get at least a few reps in real game action before Opening Day. Assuming he avoids a setback, McNeil is a decent source of cheap batting average late in your drafts. 

Yasmani Grandal (foot) won't run for at least a week. It seemed like the Pirates were hoping Grandal would be their primary catcher to open the season, but he hasn't been running and won't do so until at least next week. That would put him just a week away from Opening Day having not played in a game since Feb. 27, so I'm going to go ahead and guess that Henry Davis will be the Pirates primary catcher to open the season. And, if he lives up to expectations, he shouldn't give that job back to the underwhelming veteran. 

Throwing harder is better, especially during the spring, when most pitchers are still rounding up. It's not everything, but you'd rather see higher velocity readings than lower. Here's what stood out this week: 

Jack Flaherty's velocity is still up. Pitching Wednesday against the Phillies, Flaherty averaged 94.2 mph with his four-seam fastball, up 1.1 mph from last season's average and in line with his career-high in 2019. Flaherty's velocity has been in that range all spring, and while he bristled last season at the suggestion that diminished velocity played a role in his struggles, it seems worth mentioning that 2019 was Flaherty's best season, when he finished fourth in MVP voting. Flaherty hasn't been dominant this spring – five earned runs in 8.2 innings – but he does have 11 strikeouts, and I'm interested in what we've seen enough to consider him as a late-round target in all leagues. 

Joe Ryan's slider, cutter velocity are up. Ryan continues to tinker with his arsenal, knowing the fastball he rode to success early last season probably isn't enough for sustained success. He's struck out nine in nine innings with one walk allowed, and most importantly, just one homer. When he's right, Ryan can be pretty terrific, but homer issues (as well as a groin injury) derailed what was looking like a breakout last season. He's a solid pick in the middle rounds. 

Casey Mize's velocity has remained up. The Tigers starters are pretty much all throwing harder than ever this spring, and it's especially interesting to see from Mize, who has a 4.29 ERA in the majors since being the No. 1 pick in the MLB draft. He averaged 95.7 mph with his four-seam fastball Thursday against the Yankees, up 2.3 mph from 2022 as he pitched four scoreless innings with four strikeouts. Mize still hasn't shown the kind of swing-and-miss stuff we want to see – he had seven whiffs on 59 pitches Thursday – but he has his ERA down to 3.38 in 10.2 spring innings, with 10 strikeouts. He's worth a look in the reserve rounds of all drafts as an upside pick. 

Sixto Sanchez is almost back to his pre-injury velocity.  Sanchez got through two innings Wednesday on just 23 pitches, and he averaged 97.3 mph, just 1.2 mph down from 2020. Usually, we're talking about guys showcasing career-best velocity here, but in Sanchez's case, the fact that he's anywhere close to his peak after so many shoulder injuries counts as a big win. It looks like Sanchez is going to make the Marlins' Opening Day roster, and while I'd guess he'll be ticketed for a middle-relief role, I could see him figuring into the team's late-inning plans if he can continue to showcase something like his peak form. What a story that would be. 

Want to know which pitchers might break out? The ones who added a new weapon to their arsenals are often a good bet. Here's who is doing some tweaking. 

Alright, let's talk about Spencer Strider's curveball. If you follow @PitchingNinja on Twitter, you've surely seen plenty of Strider's new curveball, and I'll admit, it's impressive how quickly he seems to have developed a feel for this new breaking pitch, routinely throwing it in two-strike counts for backwards Ks. And it's certainly fun to imagine how this pitch might make Strider even better … but I'm not actually sure how excited we should be about this pitch. That's not to say it doesn't look like a good pitch or can't be a weapon for him, because it does look good, and can be a weapon, clearly. But Strider is already operating in rarified air, sporting the sixth-best strikeout rate in major-league history for a pitcher with at least 300 innings, behind five elite high-leverage relievers. Can he get better? Sure! In fact, I expect better from Strider than last year's inflated ERA. But I expected that if he was just the same guy as before. I'm just not sure our expectations should be much higher now that he has a curveball. He's the No. 1 pitcher already for a reason.

Paul Sewald has a changeup now. Sewald has been a two-pitch pitcher for pretty much his entire career in the majors, throwing a high of 65 changeups (out of over 1,000 total pitches) in 2018 and just 22 in five seasons since. And, as Sewald himself put it , "I would say, as humbly as I can – I don't need a third pitch." But it's an interesting wrinkle for a guy who is already one of the best relievers in baseball, and unlike Strider, there's plenty of room for Sewald to join the elite tier of closers if this pitch fuels a step forward. 

Jose Berrios ' new cutter continues to look solid. Berrios has thrown 8.1 innings with just one run allowed this spring, and he's incorporating his new cutter about 10% of the time so far. It hasn't been a huge swing-and-miss pitch for him yet – he didn't get a single whiff on seven cutters in his start earlier this week – but it gives him a new velocity band to play in, with his fastball coming in around 94 mph, his slider and his changeup both around the 83-84 mph range, and the cutter coming in around 91-92. It's another way to keep hitters off balance, and could help Berrios continue to pitch deep into games as he ages. 

Lineups in spring are just snapshots, but they can still tell us something about how a team wants to deploy their hitters. Here are the latest hints. 

Xander Bogaerts hitting leadoff. Bogaerts is moving to second base for the Padres , and he's shifting up in the lineup, too. According to MLBPlayingTime.com, Bogaerts hit leadoff in his final six Grapefruit League games, something he did just 23 times last season. Each spot in the lineup you move up tend to be worth about 15-20 PA over the course of the season, so moving from hitting primarily fourth and fifth to leadoff could realistically lead to a 5-10% increase in plate appearances for Bogaerts – and I'd bet hitting at the top of the order makes him more likely to repeat his 19 steals from last season, too. Bogaerts is one of my favorite boring, safe picks around 100th overall. 

Seiya Suzuki is likely to bat second for the Cubs. Suzuki has hit second for much of spring, and new Cubs manager Craigg Counsell told reporters that's where he wants Suzuki to hit when the games count. Suzuki hit fourth or lower in 111 of his 135 starts last season, and he should benefit from the increased volume at the top of what should be a pretty good lineup. 

Maikel Garcia continues to see leadoff opportunities for the Royals. That's happened in three of his last four starts and eight of 10 overall, including at times against both lefties and righties. The Royals have also experimented with MJ Melendez at the top of the order, but Garcia has spent more time there and seems likely to open the season at the top of the lineup. He's having a good spring and could be a 10-homer, 30-steal guy who doesn't hurt you in batting average – think a much cheaper Andres Gimenez or Bryson Stott. 

Esteury Ruiz has been leading off primarily, including against LHP. One of the bust arguments against Ruiz was that he spent much of last season hitting toward the bottom of the A's lineup, but that hasn't been the case so far this spring, as he has started from the leadoff spot in nine of 11 games, including eight in a row as of Thursday. Ruiz is hitting well this spring overall, and it looks like the Athletics are rewarding him with a coveted spot at the top of the lineup – which could be worth over 100 plate appearances more than hitting ninth for a full season. Ruiz would still have to hit well enough to keep that spot, but if he's the leadoff hitter for the A's on Opening Day, he's probably the odds-on favorite to lead the majors in steals this season. 

Mitch Garver has played catcher only once this spring. To be clear, that's not a bad thing. The Mariners signed Garver with the expectation that he would be their primary DH, and that's how they've used him this spring, and that's a great thing. If he can stay healthy, Garver very well could be one of the two or three best hitters at the position, and avoiding the wear and tear behind the plate could certainly help him stay upright. He might be my favorite catcher to draft in all leagues right now. 

The cream rises to the top. Here's are the position battle updates from this week. 

Let's talk about the Reds. Noelvi Marte was suspended for the first 80 games of the season this week, which suddenly makes the Reds infield situation a lot more clear. Elly De La Cruz will be the everyday shortstop, Matt McLain will be the everyday second baseman, and Jeimer Candelario will likely shift over to third base on something like a full-time basis. That leaves first base cleared up for Christian Encarnacion-Strand, with Jonathan India likely to serve as a utility option everywhere except shortstop; both he and Encarnacion-Strand could see some time in the outfield. Spencer Steer will be the non-shortstop positions occasionally as well, but he'll likely spend most of his time in the outfield. It's still crowded, but things make a lot more sense with one of the key names out of the picture. 

Jarred Kelenic will platoon with Adam Duvall . The Braves signed Duvall to a one-year deal Thursday, and you have to think Kelenic's 3-for-34 start to the spring played a part there. I think ideally, they'd still like Kelenic to be their primary left fielder, but if he's not up for the job, the Braves trust Duvall to pick up the slack. It makes Kelenic's floor lower, but I still think there's a decent ceiling here if he hits like he did early last season. 

Reynaldo Lopez seems likely to be the Braves fifth starter. They sent A.J. Smith-Shawver down to the minors earlier this week, and Bryce Elder has an 8.25 ERA through four starts, so I'm guessing Lopez is going to be the guy to open the season. However, with his velocity down significantly from his time in the White Sox bullpen last season, I'm not all that interested in Lopez outside of a SPaRP pick in H2H points leagues.

Jackson Merrill, Graham Pauley are making the Padres roster. Merrill is transitioning to the outfield, and he's a top-20 prospect who hit .351/.400/.595 with only three strikeouts in 40 PA this spring, so he deserves to be drafted in all formats, probably inside the top 200. Pauley is a fringe-ier prospect, but he'll likely be the team's Opening Day third baseman with Manny Machado limited to DH duties. Pauley hit .308/.393/.539 across three levels of the minors, and in typical Padres fashion is being rushed to the majors after just 20 games at Double-A. There's risk here, but he also had 23 homers and 22 steals in 127 games last season and could be an intriguing late-round target in deeper formats – he gives me some Spencer Steer vibes from a year ago. 

Gavin Stone is making the Dodgers rotation. With Emmet Sheehan dealing with shoulder soreness, Stone looks likely to get a chance to re-establish himself in the Dodgers rotation to open the season. He was awful last season in his MLB debut, allowing 31 runs in 31 innings, but he's a career 3.19 pitcher with a 33% strikeout rate in the minors, and thinks he has figured out a pitch-tipping issue that he struggled with last season. Stone has significant upside for the Dodgers and is one of my favorite late-round dart throws. 

A.J. Puk, Ryan Weathers, Trevor Rogers looking likely for the Marlins rotation. While Perez's finger isn't expected to keep him off the Opening Day roster, Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett's shoulder injuries will, and that means there should be room for three pretty wicked lefties in the Marlins rotation. Rogers is the most proven at the MLB level, but injuries have derailed him after a very good 2021 season; Weathers and Puk are both former top prospects who may be finding themselves after a few years in the wilderness. Puk probably has the most upside, and should go off the board highest of this trio, but I'm interested in all three of them as late-round picks, with Weathers and Rogers usually available in the reserve rounds of most drafts.

Cedanne Rafaela could see some time at second base for the Red Sox. It hasn't happened yet, but the Red Sox have talked about Rafaela as an option at second base with Vaughn Grissom (groin) out for the start of the season. Rafaela is, by all accounts, a very good shortstop (and a potentially elite center fielder), so he should be able to handle second base if they opt to go that route. He did have 22 homers and 39 steals between Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors last season, and he could be a viable Fantasy option if his poor plate discipline doesn't sink him. 

The White Sox are moving Michael Kopech to the bullpen. And there's a chance he could end up the closer in a wide-open White Sox bullpen. The former top prospect has largely fizzled out as a starter, leading the league in walks in just 129.1 innings last season, but he's been incredibly effective out of the bullpen in the past, striking out 103 in 69.1 innings back in 2021. If he can rediscover his slider after losing it the past two seasons, Kopech could be a legitimately very good closer, and belongs in the late-round sleeper discussion among relievers now. 

The best prospects make themselves undeniable. Here's who is turning heads on the camp. 

Wyatt Langford , OF, Rangers – I'm not sure the Rangers could come up with a reason to send Langford down at this point. I know they don't really have a spot for him in the outfield and don't necessarily want to use him as a DH when he makes his MLB debut, but he's simply been too dominant this spring not to call-up, right? Langford, one of the top prospects in baseball, is hitting .361/.442/.806 with five homers in 36 at-bats so far this spring. He's striking out 28% of the time, which is high, but not really concerning when he's crushing everything he makes contact with. Langford is getting pushed inside the top-100 of most drafts right now, and it's hard to argue against it even with some lingering uncertainty about his role. 

Victor Scott II, OF, Cardinals – It feels like the floodgates might be starting to open. One St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist wrote this week that the "Cardinals should see clear path for Victor Scott to steal opening-day spot," and while that's just one man's opinion, it's hard for this man to disagree. Scott played 66 games at Double-A last season, hitting .323/.373/.450, and by all accounts, he's got better pop than you would expect from a guy who stole (and this is not a typo) 94 bases in 132 games last season in the minors. He's a potential Gold Glove caliber defender in center and has hit .367/.457/.433 with four steals, four walks, and four strikeouts in 35 PA this spring. Scott has gone from a Fantasy afterthought to someone who needs to be drafted in the reserve rounds of at least every category league, and with Tommy Edman's wrist keeping him out of the Opening Day picture, Scott might just be forcing the Cardinals hands.

Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians – DeLauter will probably begin the season in the minors , given that he only played six games at Double-A last season, but the fact that it's even a discussion is a testament to how good he's been this spring. It's only 17 plate appearances, but DeLauter has been eye-opening, with a 1.463 OPS. If he's not on the Opening Day roster, he should be up by the summer. 

Junior Caminero, SS, Rays – Technically, this is the opposite of what this section is for, as Caminero was optioned to minor-league camp this week. Arguably the best hitter in the minors, Caminero made it to the majors for a cup of coffee last season. However, he didn't tear the cover off the ball either in his seven games last season or early this spring, and the Rays are one of the most conservative organizations in the game when it comes to promoting prospects, so it's ultimately not surprising that Caminero is going back to the minors. He'll begin the season at Triple-A, and while he could be just an injury away from a promotion, the Rays tend to give even their most precocious young prospects a lot of time at the highest level of the minors, so don't necessarily assume he'll be up in April. We'll see Caminero in the majors at some point this summer, but he's not a definite draft-and-stash.