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| Monday, November 11, 2024 |
| Scott Boras has unleashed his absolute worst puns of the offseason on us, which can only mean one thing: The hot stove is heating up! |
| Boras has been making the rounds at the winter meetings to drum up interest in his top clients, and as we've learned over the past few years, as Boras clients go, so goes the market. Boras counts among his list of clients the likes of Juan Soto and Alex Bregman this offseason, so they're going to determine a lot about how this offseason goes. |
| For the most part, this newsletter hasn't focused too much on news since the end of the season because, well, there just hasn't been very much to say about the news so far. There haven't been any big trades or free agent signings yet, so we've kept our heads down and focused on previewing every position for 2025 (and you can find links to all of that below, in case you missed it so far). That'll continue next week, but to close out this week, we're taking a small detour, taking a look at the big news items from the past few days that actually do matter for Fantasy to kick off the newsletter. |
| Next week, we'll be back with a look at the starting pitcher position, beginning with 10 of the biggest questions facing the position heading into 2025, and followed by my State of the Position preview. For now, here's what you need to know as the hot stove heats up: |
| Early 2025 Rankings |
| CatcherFirst base Second base Third baseShortstop Outfield |
| State of the Position |
| CatcherFirst base Second base Third baseShortstop Outfield |
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| Hot Stove updates |
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| We'll start things off with the biggest -- and maybe most surprising! -- news of the offseason to date ... |
| Roki Sasaki is coming to the majors |
| If you don't know who that is, good news: I wrote about him this weekend, so you can get to know him here. But here's the TL;DR version: Sasaki is the most talented pitcher in the world, not currently pitching in the United States. He just turned 23 years old, and he's thrown 414.2 innings of a 2.02 ERA in Japan in his career. He's going to be posted in the coming weeks and, if all goes according to plan, will be on an MLB roster on Opening Day. |
| And he is, legitimately, one of the most exciting young pitchers to come along in the past few years, at least. He's armed with a potentially elite fastball and a plus slider and splitter – and the splitter may be plus-plus, garnering an absurd 57% whiff rate in Japan last season. There is so much to get excited about with Sasaki, and I share that excitement … for the most part. |
| What's with the hesitation? Well, read the full column for more, but it comes down mostly to injury risk: Sasaki has never thrown more than 129.1 innings in a season and has made just 33 starts over the past two seasons with a couple of upper-body injuries. He's clearly an elite talent – though not nearly as established or dominant against high-level competition as Yoshinobu Yamamoto when he came over last offseason – but he's unproven physically and against MLB talent. I'm going to rank him somewhere around the SP3 range of the rankings, between 25 and 30th overall. Based on discussions I've seen in recent days, I don't think that's going to be high enough to draft him in most leagues. |
| I'll have FOMO if that's the case, but I just can't draft a guy with those kinds of red flags as a top-24 pitcher when the position is as strong as it seems right now. |
| Shohei Ohtani had shoulder surgery |
| I wrote about Ohtani as the No. 1 overall pick in our last newsletter, and the shoulder injury has to play a part in any discussions about taking him that high. He already has a higher-than-normal risk of injury just by virtue of being both a hitter and pitcher, and now he'll be coming into 2025 off surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder. I will note that shoulder is neither his throwing shoulder nor his lead shoulder as a hitter, so it's possible this just ends up being a relative non-factor by spring training – the obvious comp my mind went to was Cody Bellinger coming off the 2020 World Series, but that was to his lead shoulder as a hitter, so the comp may not work there. |
| Still, it's a concern, at least because I'm already worried Ohtani won't run as much as he did last season while pitching. The fact that he suffered this injury attempting a steal might make the Dodgers more reluctant to give him the green light as often. I still think Ohtani is very much a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick in spite of this, but I don't think he should be viewed as the obvious choice. |
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| Ronald Acuña and Spencer Strider may not be ready for Opening Day |
| It's easier to believe with Strider, who suffered his injury in April and was facing an uphill battle to be ready for Opening Day even with a shorter timetable for recovery from an Internal Brace procedure than full Tommy John surgery. The Braves still have to take a long-term view for Strider, who has already had the ligament in his elbow replaced before, so a conservative approach to rehab makes sense. I still think we see Strider in the first half of the season, and potentially quite early, but I'll back off my aggressive top-15 ranking for Strider until we get something more concrete. |
| As for Acuña, I'm less concerned here, though it is worth noting that the Braves have suggested he could miss a month or two of the season at various points. When he tore his ACL on July 10, 2021, he was back on the field for the Braves 292 days later; apply that same timetable to his May 26 injury, and he'd be back on the field about two weeks before Opening Day. When you're this far away, there are inevitably going to be wider error bars on any kind of timetable, so I'll take this one with a grain of salt; maybe Acuña isn't ready for Opening Day, but I have a hard time believing it'll be a multi-month absence. Acuña is one of the toughest outfielders to rank this offseason, but if he's ready to return in April, he's probably going to be a first-round pick; I'm fine moving him more to the back end of the top 15 of the overall ranks if you want to be more cautious, however. |
| Zach Neto had shoulder surgery |
| Neto missed time at the end of the season with a shoulder injury, an injury he had surgery to repair in recent days. While the good news is that, hopefully, those issues will be behind him once he recovers, the bad news is he might not be recovered until the start of next season – the Angels acknowledged that Neto might miss the start of the season . Neto already faced skepticism coming off his breakout season, and now he'll be coming back from a major surgery, so this is a clear downgrade for Neto. He was someone you could target as a low-end, top-12 SS, but now I think he's probably just a bench piece unless we get some signs that he will be able to play in April. It's a bummer for Neto, though hopefully, it won't end up being much more than a bump in the road in the long run. |
| Alex Bregman heads into free agency coming off elbow surgery |
| Bregman played through a painful elbow injury over the final couple months of the season, and he had surgery after the season to remove bone spurs from his right elbow. That isn't an especially worrisome injury in the long term, but it's an unwelcome complication for a guy who might have been facing a tough free agency market already. |
| One thing that could grease the skids a bit? Bregman is apparently willing to switch to second base to make himself more appealing to potential suitors, and it would very much be a welcome change for Fantasy, given the weakness of the second base position heading into 2025. Second base just might be a better fit for Bregman in the twilight of his career, though obviously, if he returns to Houston, that won't be an option – Jose Altuve isn't going anywhere. Bregman should still be a top-12 3B for 2025, but he would probably rank seventh at second base for me if he qualified. |
| Will the Blue Jays trade Bo Bichette? "An easy no" |
| Many have been treating a Bichette trade as a fait accompli, but apparently not. I think this is probably the right move for the Blue Jays, who have one year of control left with Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero and probably need to at least give them one more chance to see if they can go on a run – especially because Bichette's value will likely never be lower than it is coming off an injury-riddled season that saw him post just a .598 OPS. I'll be betting on an age-26 bounceback along with the Blue Jays, and while I rank him as a low-end, top-12 SS, it's worth remembering that this is the deepest position in Fantasy. He could still be a must-start player. |
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| Willson Contreras will be a full-time first baseman in 2025 |
| Oh, this is big news, actually. For one thing, it should lessen the injury risk and wear and tear on a soon-to-be 33-year-old who has missed plenty of time in his career, including a month and a half in 2024 due to a fractured forearm suffered while catching. It also should keep Contreras in the everyday lineup, giving him a big playing time edge on most of the catcher position. And Contreras' bat should play at first base, as he is hitting .256/.361/.467 while averaging 29 homers per 162 games just in the three years since he turned 30. You could legitimately get a Josh Naylor-esque bat with catcher eligibility, and that could be enough to make him a top-four player at the position for Fantasy. |
| It also opens up more opportunities for the Pedro Pages/Ivan Herrera combination for the Cardinals. Pages is the better defender of the two, but I'm hoping Herrera gets the bigger share of the playing time split coming off a season where he hit .301/.372/.428 in 259 plate appearances, with the underlying skills to back it up. Herrera absolutely belongs in the No. 2 catcher discussion in 2025 drafts, and there is top-12 upside here if it all clicks. |
| Mookie Betts is expected to return to the infield |
| We have pretty small samples to go on with Bett's return to the infield, but he has rated out pretty poorly at shortstop, so I'm hopeful this means Betts is going to play second base primarily in 2025 – which could make Gavin Lux the "odd man out" for the Dodgers . I have just enough concern about whether Betts is still a truly elite bat – his power took a big step back in 2024, along with his quality of contact metrics – that I think he's more like a late-first pick with just shortstop and outfield eligibility. But if he's going to be eligible at the weakest position in Fantasy? Well, say hello to your No. 1 second baseman in Fantasy and a viable mid-first pick. |
| Royce Lewis and Jazz Chisholm could both play second base in 2025, too |
| Let's just keep it rolling with potentially good news for the position! The Yankees incumbent second baseman, Gleyber Torres, is a free agent and is not expected to be a big priority for the Yankees, leading Yankees GM Brian Cashman to tell reporters we could see Chisholm move back to his natural position of second base. I thought Chisholm held his own pretty well at third for never having played there before, and it's not a guarantee the team would move him to second – Cashman also mentioned prospect Caleb Durbin as an option to replace Torres if they don't sign a third baseman in free agency. I think you can make a case that Chisholm should be the No. 2 3B for 2025, and he might be No. 1 at second base if he qualifies there – at least until Betts gains eligibility, of course! |
| As for Lewis, well, he pretty publicly bristled at the idea of being moved to second base late in the season, and it doesn't sound like the plan is to move him there full-time. Twins GM Derek Falvey simply said he wants Lewis to "stay open-minded to that" in case the Twins sign an upgrade at first base and move Jose Miranda to third base a bit more often. So, it doesn't sound like you should draft Lewis expecting him to gain 2B eligibility like we might do with Chisholm and Betts. But it would be nice to see another potential impact bat gain eligibility there. Maybe second base won't be so bad after all. |
| Jeff Hoffman could be a starter? |
| This is the kind of note I probably would have ignored a few years ago, to be honest. But we've seen enough examples of impact relievers moving to the rotation and remaining impact pitchers that I certainly can't write it off. Sure, it's not a guarantee of effectiveness – Jordan Hicks was pretty mediocre before moving back to the bullpen last season, to name one example – but when you look at the likes of Seth Lugo, Reynaldo Lopez, Garrett Crochet, Nick Martinez, and others, I think it's worth taking seriously. |
| Hoffman is a former starter, so he should be able to handle it physically, and he has a legitimate four-pitch mix that could be effective multiple times through the order. Which is to say, Hoffman has the skill set to make this work, even if his success in the bullpen (2.28 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 33.4% strikeout rate over the past two seasons) isn't likely to translate perfectly to a rotation role. But this is one way Hoffman can increase his value on the free agent market this offseason, and you should put Hoffman on your late-round target list, at the very least, for 2025 if he does join someone's rotation. |
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