Just what the US didn't ask for | The UK goes back to the 90s |

Hi John, here's what you need to know for December 16th in 3:10 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over an oat flat white at Café Blá in Munich, Germany (🌥 3°C/37°F)

Today's big stories

  1. US retail sales rose by less than expected last month
  2. Saxo has laid out a bunch of “outrageous” predictions for 2022, and you won’t believe what happened next… – Read Now
  3. UK inflation rose to its highest level in a decade last month

We Thrifty Kings

We Thrifty Kings

What’s Going On Here?

Data out on Wednesday showed US retail sales rose at their slowest in four months in November, as the country’s shoppers realize there’s only so generous they can be this Christmas…

What Does This Mean?

US retail sales were just 0.3% higher in November than they were the month before, falling short of the 0.8% investors were expecting. And while electronics and appliances sales dropped 4.6%, this wasn’t just a matter of one player letting the side down: five of the 13 of retail categories sold less in November than October. Sure, that might be because Americans did their holiday shopping ahead of time in a bid to outmaneuver supply chain shortages. But a grimmer theory is that shoppers are being put off by soaring consumer prices, which might become even more pronounced early next year when more government support programs – including the freeze on student loan payments – grind to halt.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: The Fed’s stepping up.
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy, which means this drop-off could have a big impact on the country’s economic growth. That might be why the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is finally calling time on inflation: the central bank announced on Wednesday that it’ll be winding down its bond-buying program twice as fast as it originally planned. That should push up the cost of borrowing, deter spending, and, ultimately, cool down rising prices.

For you personally: Time for change.
The Fed’s said it won’t hike interest rates until it’s no longer buying any bonds, so Wednesday’s announcement suggests this hike will happen sooner than expected too. And it could be the first of many: Fed officials are now hinting at as many as three rate rises next year, which could be a reason to rotate away from tech stocks – which perform worse in high-interest environments – and into those that are less affected, like consumer staples.

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Analyst Take

How To Trade Saxo’s “Outrageous” 2022 Calls

How To Trade Saxo’s “Outrageous” 2022 Calls
Photo of Andrew

Andrew, Analyst

What’s Going On Here?

Every year, Saxo comes up with a selection of “outrageous” predictions for the next 12 months.

And not to alarm you, but they really are outrageous this year.

You should see the one about Meta: it’ll completely change the way you think about life.

And you think you know what inflation looks like? You won’t even recognize the former headline-grabber this time next year.

Oh, and not forgetting the one prediction that Spotify absolutely doesn’t want you to see.

So if you’re going to invest a cent in 2022, read. this. first: five outrageous predictions for 2022, and the outrageous ways to trade them.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Deck The Halls

Deck The Halls

What’s Going On Here?

Data out on Wednesday showed UK prices rose by the most in a decade last month, so this could end being Brits’ most expensive Christmas by far-la-la-la-la-la-la-la.

What Does This Mean?

British consumer prices rose by a higher-than-expected 5.1% last month compared to the same time last year – a hefty increase from October’s 4.2%, and well above the Bank of England’s (BoE’s) prediction of 4.5%. It’d be easy to blame fuel costs, which rose a massive 30% to hit a record high. But prices were on the up across the board: clothing by 4%, furniture by 12%, and second-hand cars by a massive 27%. Put those all together, and core inflation – a measure that removes volatile prices like food and, yep, fuel – rose 4% versus the same time a year ago. That’s its biggest jump since 1992, which makes you wonder what Jazzy Jeff makes of all this…

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Don’t forget about you-know-what.
This data would normally have been enough to convince the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates when it meets on Thursday – especially combined with the latest strong jobs update. But there aren’t normal times, in case you’d forgotten: Omicron has prompted the UK government to take new, potentially economy-bruising restrictions ahead of the holidays, and investors now reckon the BoE will put off raising rates till February (tweet this).

Zooming out: China wants to get back on track.
Price rises may have been much milder in China, but the country’s economic growth is still slowing down. There’s a couple of culprits: China’s crackdown on the property market sent residential sales down by around 20% last month versus the same time last year, while Covid-shy shoppers just haven’t been buying as much. That’s got the government's attention: it’s already planning to boost economic support early next year to stabilize growth, and economists reckon even more could follow.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Live for each second without hesitation.”

– Elton John (an English singer, pianist and composer)
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🎯 On Our Radar

  1. Football on the beach, anyone? Something just emerged from the deep sea.
  2. A sticky situation. This won’t be the smoothest drive of your life, that’s for sure.
  3. Reduce, reuse, sell. You could make enough to quit your job.
  4. Florida Man’s at it again. There was a flamethrower involved this time round.
  5. Lost and found. Not even a tornado can take away this family’s memories.
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