The Daily 202: Republicans standing with Trump are banking on voters having short-term memories

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) got testy with reporters last night as he was pressed on his role in the 2013 government shutdown after a debate with Democratic challenger Misty Snow at Brigham Young University. (Rick Bowmer/AP)

With Breanne Deppisch

THE BIG IDEA:

PROVO, Utah—Republican elected officials who continue to stand with Donald Trump, even as a procession of women come forward to credibly accuse him of grotesque misconduct, are gambling that the American people have very short attention spans. They might not be wrong…

Three years ago today, the federal government was two weeks into a shutdown. Conservative hard-liners, led by Sens. Ted Cruz and Mike Lee, forced congressional Republicans into a quixotic showdown with the White House over the funding of Obamacare. As public opinion turned sharply against them, establishment figures cut a deal to get the lights back on and 800,000 furloughed employees back to work.

At the time, there was a great deal of hand-wringing among GOP strategists and lawmakers about the damage that the fight was doing to the party’s image. They feared that voters would become convinced that they were incapable of governing. A Washington Post poll conducted immediately after the government reopened seemed to validate these worries: Eight in 10 Americans disapproved of the shutdown, and just one-third of the country held a favorable view of the Republican Party (an all-time low).

How quickly people forget and the media moves on. The disastrous rollout of healthcare.gov dominated the conversation in the second half of October, and public opinion swung against the Democrats. Terry McAuliffe was expected to win the Virginia governor’s race by double digits, but backlash to the Affordable Care Act meant that he only prevailed by 2 points. Republicans won control of the Senate just one year later. In 2016, the shutdown has not emerged as a top-tier issue against GOP incumbents up for reelection in places like New Hampshire, Florida, Pennsylvania or Ohio -- largely because voters don’t remember it.

Lee shakes hands with Misty Snow, his Democratic opponent, at the start of the debate. (Rick Bowmer/AP)

-- During a Senate debate here in Utah last night, a Brigham Young University student pointedly asked Lee about the episode. “You were a supporter of shutting down the government in 2013,” said junior Blake Ringer, who interned for Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) last year. “Under what circumstances would you support shutting down the government if reelected?”

“President Obama shut down the government,” Lee replied. “You’ve been told otherwise by the media, but they’re wrong.” Offering a revisionist explanation, he spoke at one point as if he was trying to help out the administration: “What we proposed is that we not fund it for that first year because President Obama said it wasn’t ready.”

Coasting to reelection against a 31-year-old transgender woman who works as a grocery store cashier, the confident senator was cool as a cucumber for most of the debate. But Lee got flustered every time the shutdown came up. At a gaggle afterward, a pair of local reporters pressed him repeatedly on whether, in retrospect, the gambit was a mistake. “There was no vote to shut down the government,” Lee said testily. After the third dodge, he replied: “Well, no. But I didn’t let it happen to begin with! … What happened is they wouldn’t allow us to have a single vote to fund any aspect of government … unless we were willing to fund everything in government, including Obamacare.”

Ted Cruz and Mike Lee, his best friend in the Senate, at a press conference on the eve of the 2013 shutdown. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP)

-- Let’s face it: Lee will never pay any political price for his role the shutdown. His Democratic challenger Misty Snow, a first-time candidate, made clear after the debate that she’s not even running to win. “The best a Democratic Senate candidate has done in Utah since 1992 is 33 percent. So anything above that would be a victory of sorts,” she said, adding that she has never even been to Washington.

Cruz, for his part, might never have become a plausible presidential candidate in 2016 had he not picked the fight that led to the donnybrook. Though, in fairness, he paid a price this spring when many of his Republican colleagues refused to support him during a two-way race with Trump because they still resented the pickle he put them in. Remember when John Boehner called him “Lucifer in the flesh”?

-- Just as with the shutdown, there are reasons to believe that many Republicans will not ultimately suffer much, if any, long-term damage from looking the other way as their party’s nominee personally insulted women, Latinos, prisoners of war, the disabled, Gold Star parents and many more.

Trump is indeed toxic in many places in the next four weeks. But if Republicans lose the Senate, the nature of the map means they would probably re-take the chamber in 2018.

Assume Trump loses. Because the dire warnings about him will not have been able to materialize, and our A.D.D. culture will be fixated on fresher stories, it seems hard to believe that Trump will stay top of mind for that many voters come October 2019, the same distance in the future as the government shutdown is in the past.

Then again, it seems certain Trump will find ways to stay in the limelight for as long as possible – even if a private citizen. And of course it is possible that Republicans will lose Latinos for another generation because of Trump. The California GOP is still living with the consequences of Proposition 187 from 1994.

Rightly or wrongly, many politicians have clearly concluded that Trump is a flash in the pan whose historic unpopularity will not taint them by association in future cycles. They also recognize that he secured their party's nomination despite a stream of scandals and gaffes that would have doomed any conventional candidate.

Orrin Hatch speaks in Sandy, Utah. (Rick Bowmer/AP, File)

-- Utah senior senator Orrin Hatch, who has chosen to stick with Trump and declines to withdraw his endorsement despite the 2005 video, offers a good illustration.

In order to get reelected in 2012, Hatch promised that his seventh term would be his last. But the 82-year-old has hinted that he plans to go back on his word. Many in both Utah and the U.S. Capitol believe he’s sticking with Trump to advance this ambition.

A poll published yesterday by the Deseret News found that 51 percent of Utahns want Trump to drop out, including 46 percent of Republicans. Gov. Gary Herbert and Rep. Jason Chaffetz announced last Friday that they will not vote for Trump. The Deseret News, which is controlled by the Mormon Church, called for Trump to end his candidacy. The Salt Lake Tribune endorsed Hillary Clinton yesterday.

But Hatch has apparently calculated that it is too risky to upset the half of the GOP electorate that wants Trump to stay in. He assumes no one will remember that he stood up to Trump, but that Trump supporters might seek revenge if he snubs him. Especially if he somehow winds up in the reality TV star’s crosshairs.

Hatch could also, in theory, cite his support for Trump as a wedge against Chaffetz if the two, hypothetically, wind up squaring off in a primary. He may try to argue two years from now that Clinton became president because Republicans did not back up their nominee.

Lee, who has refused to endorse Trump, said last night that he still does not know who he will vote for, but it won’t be Clinton. He reiterated his call for The Donald to step aside. I asked the junior senator why other politicians, such as Hatch, have not followed his lead in renouncing Trump. “Look, everybody’s got to make their own decision,” he said. “That’s their judgment call to make. I made mine based on principle.”

-- Trump, for his part, only came up once during the hour-long debate at BYU. The moderator asked Lee if he supports his proposed ban on Muslims entering the United States. “No! Heck no! Absolutely not! Never! That’s a religious test,” the senator said. “As a religious minority myself, as a descendent of people who were ordered excluded by the governor of Missouri on October 27th, 1838, I am strongly against any kind of religious test. We should shun any kind of an approach that says if you belong to religion X or believe Y, you can’t come here or you lose access to this or that. We’ve got to push back against that any time it happens!”

Trump kisses a "Women for Trump" sign during a campaign rally in Lakeland, Fla. (AP/ Evan Vucci)

PREDATOR-IN-CHIEF? SEVERAL MORE WOMEN COME FORWARD:

The fresh accusations about Trump making unwanted sexual advances are detailed and follow a clear pattern, though Trump denies them all.

-- People Magazine writer Natasha Stoynoff, in a first-person account, says Trump forced himself on her while she was covering his and Melania’s first wedding anniversary. When a then-very pregnant Melania went upstairs to change, Trump reportedly “pushed her up against the wall” and “forced his tongue” down her throat. “You know we’re going to have an affair, don’t you?” she recounts him saying. “Have you ever been to Peter Luger’s for steaks? I’ll take you. We’re going to have an affair, I’m telling you.” Stoynoff asked to be taken off the beat immediately after returning to New York. “I’m not sure what locker room talk consists of these days,” she writes in her article. “I only know that I wasn’t in a locker room when he pushed me against a wall. I was in his home, as a professional, and his beautiful pregnant wife was just upstairs.”

-- Mandy McGillivray, 36, tells the Palm Beach Post that Trump grabbed her behind in 2003 while she was assisting on a photo shoot at Mar-A-Lago. “All of a sudden I felt a grab, a little nudge,” she recalls. “I think it’s Ken’s camera bag, that was my first instinct. I turn around and there’s Donald. He sort of looked away quickly. I quickly turned back, facing Ray Charles, and I’m stunned.’’

-- Rachel Crooks said Trump kissed her on the mouth outside an elevator in his Manhattan building in 2005. She was 22 and worked at a real estate development company located in Trump Tower at the time. “I think that what was more upsetting than him kissing her was that she felt like she couldn’t do anything to him because of his position,” her then-boyfriend recalled to the New York Times. “She was 22. She was a secretary. It was her first job out of college. I remember her saying, ‘I can’t do anything to this guy, because he’s Donald Trump.’”

-- Jessica Leeds, 74, says Trump grabbed her breasts and tried to put his hand up her skirt during a flight more than three decades ago. “He was like an octopus,” she told the Times. “His hands were everywhere.” She fled to the back of the plane. Trump's campaign released a letter demanding the Times retract its stories. "Failure to do so will leave my client with no option but to pursue all available actions and remedies," it said.

-- Megyn Kelly responded on Fox News: "They say anger is closely related to fear."

-- Five Miss Teen USA contestants now say that Trump walked into dressing rooms while teenagers were dressing. “I was the eldest delegate at age 19 and was in the very back of the large dressing room,” former Miss New Mexico Teen USA Victoria Hughes told Buzzfeed. “I recall chaperones saying that we had a visitor and to get covered up. The black curtains opened and in walks Mr. Trump smiling. He wished us all good luck, did not stay very long and left. As teenagers, it no doubt caught us off guard, as the timing of the entrance could’ve been better and less awkward for us all.”

Another former Miss Teen USA validated the story:

-- In a newly-unearthed 1992 “Entertainment Tonight” clip, Trump asks a 10-year-old girl if she’s going up the escalator at Trump Tower. “Yeah,” she replies. He is then heard saying: “I am going to be dating her in 10 years. Can you believe it?” CBS News has more:

The Daily News puts the story on the cover:

-- Trump, who says no one respects women more than he does, tried to cast O.J. Simpson in the 2009 season of “The Apprentice.” He told Howard Stern that he wanted the accused murderer because he would drive up ratings for his show, but NBC nixed the idea. From Des Bieler: “In your business, there’s a thing called ratings,” Trump said in 2008. “And, you know, you can come up with a cure for cancer — I found out a lot about your business, because, hey, I’m the biggest star. … So I know that if you come up with a cure for cancer, and if you put it on, and if it doesn’t get ratings, they will not broadcast it. Now, I know this: If I put O.J. on — huge ratings. Oh, forget it, 35 million people.” An NBC spokesman also confirmed that Trump and Simpson had spoken.

-- In light of the fresh allegations, Politico’s Susan Glasser and Michael Kruse revisited four Trump biographers who spent years documenting the real estate developer. They were unsurprised by his actions, agreeing that he is driven more by “subjugation” than lust:

-- Desperate, Trump plans to double down on his attacks against former president Bill Clinton’s infidelity. Bloomberg reports that the campaign is planning to introduce “strategic” new information to try changing the narrative. On Tuesday, campaign CEO Steve Bannon laid out the campaign’s argument: "She’s led a program of victim intimidation,” Bannon told Trump staffers, according to two advisers who were present. "This has nothing to do with consensual sexual affairs and infidelities. This is Bill. We’re going to turn him into Bill Cosby. He’s a violent sexual predator who physically abuses women who he assaults. And she takes the lead on the intimidation of the victims.” Asked how the campaign would reach millennial women, an adviser said that Trump himself will force the national media to focus on Clinton’s alleged intimidation of sexual assault victims. “Trump’s gonna force it into the system,” one said.

-- Trump this morning has begun to personally lash out at the women:

-- Trump surrogate Jerry Falwell Jr. said he would still vote for The Donald even if all the aforementioned allegations of sexual misconduct turn out to be true. (Watch the full interview here.)

-- Students at Liberty University, where Falwell is president, are deeply ashamed of him and calling him out for crossing a line. In an open letter, students said his endorsement of Trump “had cast a stain” on the school’s reputation, writing that they were “tired of being associated” with the GOP nominee. “He does not represent our values and we want nothing to do with him,” they said. Falwell criticized the statement from his own students as “incoherent and false”: “I am not ‘touring the country’ or associating Liberty University with any candidate,” he said. “This student statement seems to ignore the teachings of Jesus not to judge others but they are young and still learning.” (T. Rees Shapiro and Sarah Pulliam Bailey)

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING:

-- The U.S. Navy launched Tomahawk missiles early Thursday from the Red Sea at three coastal radar sites in Yemen, destroying targets associated with missile attacks on U.S. ships this week. From Dan Lamothe: "The Tomahawks were launched from the destroyer USS Nitze at about 4 a.m. at three locations in territory held by Houthi rebels north of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said. President Obama authorized the strikes upon the recommendations of Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter and Marine Gen. Joseph F. Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. ... A defense official said the radar sites were in remote areas where there was little risk of civilian casualties, but declined to say how many Tomahawks were used. ... The Tomahawk strikes followed cruise-missile attacks that were launched against Navy ships on Sunday night and Wednesday from Yemen. Another missile launched Oct. 1 caused near-catastrophic damage to the HSV-2 Swift, a catamaran-style high-speed vessel that was operated by the Emiratis and once was a part of the U.S. Navy."

-- Bob Dylan won the 2016 Nobel Prize in literature for “having created new poetic expressions within the great American song tradition.” He is the first American to win the prize since Toni Morrison in 1993.

GET SMART FAST:​​

POLLING ROUNDUP:

-- A Bloomberg Politics poll gives Clinton a 9 point lead in Pennsylvania (51-42).

-- A Detroit News/WDIV poll shows Clinton now up 12 points in Michigan (42-30). And 43 percent of Republicans said Trump should drop out of the race.

-- A Monmouth University poll shows Trump up 5 points in Missouri (46-41). A big part of Trump’s support in the Show-Me State comes from white men, who back him 62-26. (His support has waned among white women.) Clinton holds a 68 percent advantage among non-white voters. Down-ballot, support has eroded for Sen. Roy Blunt: He’s only up 2 points on Democratic rival Jason Kander, compared to a 5 point advantage in August. That’s within the margin of error.

-- A Marquette University poll in Wisconsin shows Clinton ahead of Trump by 4 points (46-42). The GOP nominee is facing double-digit drops among every demographic group: He suffered a 24 point decline among evangelical voters, a 13 percent decline among men, and a 22 percent drop in white voters with no college degree. Among degree-holding white voters, his level of support dropped 42 percent.

-- “Notice what's happening to broaden Clinton's lead in the RealClearPolitics average: Trump is sinking as much as Clinton is rising,” writes Philip Bump. “Her lead in the polling average is now nearly as big as it was after the Democratic convention. He's got a core base of support that flexes upward on occasion, but only temporarily. It keeps retracting.”

Clinton visited Tacos El Gordo in Las Vegas. (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post)

THE DAILY HILLARY:

-- The Post’s Editorial Board, independent of the newsroom, endorsed Clinton for president this morning. “What hope is there for … a way out of the gridlock that frustrates so many Americans? The temptation is to summon a ‘revolution,’ as her chief primary opponent imagined, or promise to blow up the system, as Mr. Trump posits. Both temptations are dead ends, as Ms. Clinton understands. If progress is possible, it will be incremental and achieved with input from members of both parties. Eloquence and charm may matter less than policy chops and persistence. … In the gloom and ugliness of this political season, one encouraging truth is often overlooked: There is a well-qualified, well-prepared candidate on the ballot. Hillary Clinton has the potential to be an excellent president of the United States, and we endorse her without hesitation.”

“HE SAID, WE SAID”: As part of its closing argument, the Editorial Board produced a list of “erroneous, malicious and ignorant” statements made by Trump since he launched his campaign last June. (Check it out here. They also made a three-minute video:

-- “Hillary Clinton, Paul Ryan and the relationship that could shape Washington,” by Robert Costa and Philip Rucker: “When they served together on Capitol Hill, they did not collaborate. They have crossed paths only a few times, in perfunctory meetings … Nonetheless, their relationship could become Washington’s most important in determining whether the federal government functions over the next four years, should Clinton win the presidency and Ryan retain his majority — as polls show is probable. ... There is a glaring fault line between optimism and pessimism about Clinton and Ryan forging a productive partnership. Some see the pair as policy wonks with pragmatic instincts who are poised to break the logjam. Others say their political caution and entrenched ideologies would prevent them from defying their bases to resolve disputes and build agreements. ‘Do they want to begin it at loggerheads or with some signal to a very frustrated electorate that there is ground to be gained by focusing on the overlap between their two agendas?’ asked Brookings Fellow and former Clinton administration official William A. Galston."

-- Campaign chairman John Podesta’s Twitter account was hacked, as another trove of hacked emails from his personal email account were published on the WikiLeaks website. At 7:55 p.m., the account sent out a tweet that said, "I've switched teams. Vote Trump 2016. Hi pol." It is unclear who is responsible. (Abby Phillip)

-- Hillary's campaign appearances were interrupted the past two days by people shouting while holding or wearing T-shirts that describe Bill as a rapist. “The Clinton campaign has directly implicated conservative radio host Alex Jones and his conspiracy-driven website Infowars for urging Clinton opponents to raise the rape allegation — and offering to pay those who get on television. Jones made such an offer on his Sept. 30 show," per Sean Sullivan, Anne Gearan and Jose A. DelReal.

Demonstrators wearing shirts that say "Bill Clinton Rapist" protest as Barack Obama speaks in Greensboro, North Carolina, on Tuesday. (Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)

THE DAILY DONALD:

-- In Florida yesterday, Trump accused Paul Ryan and establishment Republicans of conspiring against him. He vowed to get to the bottom of it. "There’s a whole deal going on — we’re going to figure it out. I always figure things out. But there’s a whole sinister deal going on," he said. (Sean Sullivan, Anne Gearan and Jose A. DelReal have more.)

-- “Some fear he is running to be a dictator,” by Michael Kranish and Karen Tumulty: “The populist candidacy that upended the GOP order and has torn through many of the norms of American politics is now raising a concern among critics in both parties: that Trump is, in effect, running to be a strongman with dictatorial powers. It would seem few aspects of daily life would be beyond the reach of the power he envisions. ‘If I become president, we’re going to be saying ‘Merry Christmas’ at every store,” Trump said last year. “You can leave ‘Happy Holidays’ at the corner.’ The real estate developer has cast himself as a ‘lone ranger’ who leads a ‘one-man army.’ Constitutional scholars say they are alarmed that Trump does not seem to understand the separation of powers. [And others] point to a glaring inconsistency in Trump’s rhetoric: many of his supporters on the right have long favored limiting the role of government.” Conservative legal scholar John Yoo said Trump “reminds me a lot of early Mussolini … Very, disturbingly similar.”

-- Embattled Maine Gov. Paul LePage, one of Trump’s most vocal surrogates and earliest elected supporters, held a press conference yesterday while standing in front of predominantly displayed Bill Clinton “nesting dolls.” The figures had pictures of the former president, Monica Lewinsky and other women who have claim to have been involved with WJC. The bizarre maneuver was an attempt to clarify statements LePage made the day before, in which he suggested that Trump should use “authoritarian power” to “take back the country.” In the background of the video, someone can be heard saying, “Is this really happening?” as others try to identify the women painted onto the oblong figures. (Boston Globe)

-- "Trump is either victorious or victimized, but never a loser. Thisweek marked the end of Trump trying to actually win, and the beginning of him plotting to explain why the election was stolen," The New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza writes.

-- Shark jumped, cont.: Warming up the crowd for Trump in Florida, Rudy Giuliani accused Clinton of “failing to honor” the victims of the 9/11 terror attack and suggested at one point that she lied about visiting Ground Zero. While Clinton was in Washington on Sept. 11, she flew there on Sept. 12. Pictures of the two of them inspecting the destruction together at Ground Zero are widely available...

-- Ouch: “RNC TV ad spending for Trump: $0,” by Kenneth Vogel and Alex Isenstadt: “The [RNC] insists that it’s doing everything in its power to elect [Trump], but as Trump gets clobbered on the TV airwaves by his well-funded Democratic rival, the RNC has been conspicuously absent. [An] analysis of campaign finance records reveals that the committee has not spent anything on commercials boosting Trump since he emerged as the party’s likely nominee. That’s a stark departure from recent elections. In 2008 and 2012, the RNC spent tens of millions of dollars on so-called independent expenditures — principally TV ads, but also direct mail and phone banks — supporting its nominees or attacking their Democratic rivals. By contrast, this cycle the RNC has spent only $321,000 on independent expenditures attacking … Clinton. And all of that spending occurred last fall — before Trump had emerged as the leader for the GOP presidential nomination.”

David Bossie, president of Citizens United and deputy campaign manager of Trump's campaign (Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg)

-- Has Trump’s deputy campaign manager been targeting dementia sufferers to enrich himself? The Daily Beast looks at David Bossie, who has taken a leave from Citizens United to work on the Trump campaign. “The group has a history of sending out mailers that raise serious ethical questions—and that may prey on senior citizens with dementia and Alzheimer’s,” Betsy Woodruff reports. “Charity Navigator, a non-ideological organization that tracks philanthropies’ spending, gives Citizens United an unfortunate one-star rating—meaning donors should be wary about contributing to it, because it doesn’t use money efficiently. … Jennifer Bell, who runs the blog Drowning in Junk, … helped care for an elderly relative—now deceased…who once wrote a $100 check to Citizens United. Bell said the relative suffered from dementia, and after writing that first check, received frequent mailings and phone calls asking her to give more. Sometimes she would get five pieces of mail per week from the group. …

“One mail piece, which had Bossie’s name on it, said the relative had sent Citizens United a $50 check which was lost in the mail. ‘I am writing this letter to ask for your forgiveness and understanding with a recent mix-up with the Post Office,’ Bossie wrote. ‘Citizens United was the victim of a clerical mistake that temporarily decreased our ability to receive all of our mail.’ Bell said her relative never sent that $50 check in the first place. … Bell said she suspects the group designs mailers to prey on elderly people with memory loss. ‘The fact that they’re sending this fraudulent piece of mail that says, ‘Oh, we didn’t get your $50’—that means they know the person has forgotten they didn’t send a check,’ Bell said. ‘If you send them multiple pieces in a day, they’ll write a check for every piece because of dementia or Alzheimer’s.’” Bossie did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

THE BATTLEGROUNDS:

Racism is alive and well --> “10 Years After Immigration Backlash, Donald Trump Is Reopening This Town’s Old Wounds,” by the Huffington Post's Elise Foley: “Ten years ago, Hazleton, Pennsylvania, approved one of the most restrictive immigration ordinances in the country in hopes of driving out undocumented immigrants. Relations between the mostly white, longtime residents and the small but growing Latino community had been tense. But the ordinance made them far worse. For a time, the town was ground zero for anti-immigrant politics in America, and an emblem of the cultural tensions those policies inflame. In recent years, the animosity began to dissipate. Courts blocked the most controversial provisions of Hazleton’s ordinance, the Latino population ballooned and many residents moved on. Then came [The Donald].”

Anecdote du jour: Elise visited a local Wendy’s during her reporting. When a man in front of her began speaking Spanish to the cashier, one woman’s frustration boiled over. "Hurry up," she blurted out at him. The woman then turned to an elderly white man and the reporter, hoping they'd commiserate: "That’s why I’m voting for Trump," she said.

-- Ohio Gov. John Kasich writes an op-ed in support of TPP for today’s Post, hinting that he will make his support for free trade a major issue in 2020 against Republicans who oppose the deal.

-- The Arizona Republic, which has been harshly critical of Trump, endorses John McCain for reelection, calling him “the Senate’s Rock of Gibraltar.”

-- Not a profile in courage: Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), who called on Trump to step aside over his lewd remarks about women, now says he’ll vote for him anyway. He is a member of Senate GOP leadership. (KELO)

WAPO HIGHLIGHTS:

-- “NSA contractor thought to have taken classified material the old-fashioned way,” by Ellen Nakashima and Matt Zapotosky: "Harold T. Martin III is accused of stealing mounds of classified information from the government for at least a decade, and investigators also believe some of the information was taken the old-fashioned way — by walking out of the workplace with printed-out papers he had hidden, according to U.S. officials. The case against Martin, which was unsealed last week, raises new questions about whether the National Security Agency and other agencies are doing enough to detect and prevent their sensitive data from leaving the secure confines of government offices. While investigators believe much of Martin’s material was removed before stringent controls were imposed in the wake of 2013 disclosures linked to former NSA contractor Edward Snowden, some say the system still failed. ‘Someone was able to walk out the front door with a whole bunch of stuff from NSA,’ said one congressional aide. ‘That’s not supposed to happen.’”

-- “Battle to banish Islamic State from Mosul could become a mess,” by Loveday Morris: “The battle plans to oust the Islamic State from the city of Mosul are in place, but an uneasy mix of forces fighting against the militants could delay the fight or ignite separate conflicts. Preparations for the offensive have sped up in recent weeks, after officials in Baghdad and the Kurdish regional government agreed on a detailed military plan to retake the northern city. But thornier issues are still being worked out, such as the role of Iraq’s Shiite militias and the question of who will control the land after it is retaken. For Iraqi authorities, it’s a careful balancing act. Mosul and the surrounding province of Nineveh are in one of the most religiously and ethnically diverse areas of the country. Though in theory united against a common enemy, many of the groups jostling for a role in the fight are bitter rivals with competing interests."

SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ:

John Podesta's Twitter account was hacked:

Paul Ryan is getting pushback from some of his members for not having Trump's back:

Trump supporters started using the hashtag #RepealThe19th after Nate Silver released a map showing that Trump would win in a landslide if only men could vote:

Trump is going further than ever with his ISIS predictions:

Lou Dobbs is actively recruiting Trump "poll watchers":

An easily overlooked moment from a Trump rally:

Here's what Trump had to say:

Welcome to the electoral-map meme:

The New England Patriots quarterback, who has been friendly with Trump, declined to chastise him for his comments in the 2005 video. (Cindy Boren)

Scott Walker was excited about the source of Ken Bone's sweater:

Magic Johnson posted this photo from an event with Kamala Harris:

Here's a win for Kristi Noem:

Finally, Madonna posted this animation of her and Clinton dancing:

GOOD READS FROM ELSEWHERE:

-- New York Times, “A New Weapon in Russia’s Arsenal, and It’s Inflatable,” by Andrew Kramer: “Deep in the Russian countryside, the grass sways in a late-summer breeze. In the distance, the sun glistens off the golden spires of a village church. It is, to all appearances, a typically Russian scene of imperturbable rural tranquillity. Until a sleek MIG-31 fighter jet suddenly appears in a field, its muscular, stubby wings spreading to reveal their trademark red star insignia. A few moments later, a missile launcher pops up beside it. Cars on a nearby road pull over, the drivers gaping in amazement at what appear to be fearsome weapons, encountered so unexpectedly … And then, as quickly as they appeared, the jet and missile launcher vanish. [Aleksei] Komarov oversees military sales at Rusbal, a hot air balloon company that also provides the Ministry of Defense with one of Russia’s lesser-known military threats: a growing arsenal of inflatable tanks, jets and missile launchers. … ‘If you study the major battles of history, you see that trickery wins every time,’ [he said] with a sly smile. ‘Nobody ever wins honestly.’”

-- Yahoo News, “Obama team gets first gifts from Cuba and Iran — but nothing from Russia,” by Olivier Knox “President Obama pulled in his usual haul of lavish but thoroughly impractical foreign gifts in 2015, including a Saudi package valued at $522,972 and his first-ever presents from Cuba’s government ... [according to State Department disclosures].Giving expensive gifts with the knowledge that the recipient cannot, or will not, keep them seems absurd. But it’s a traditional way to break the ice and make a diplomatic meeting more memorable. Still, it’s easy to read too much diplomatic meaning into the annual disclosures. What was Zanzibari President Ali Mohamed Shein trying to tell Obama the year he delivered 20 baseball caps with the American leader’s face on them? What, apart from patriotic pride, was Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk looking to convey in 2011, when he gave Obama a $500 deluxe package of items related to the Polish-made video game ‘Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings?’ That said, this year’s disclosures clearly reflect some of the seismic changes Obama has brought about in world affairs, notably his outreach to Cuba and his nuclear deal with Iran.”

DAYBOOK:

On the campaign trail: Clinton fundraises in San Francisco. Michelle Obama campaigns for her in Manchester, N.H.; Bill Clinton campaigns in Mount Vernon and Davenport, Iowa. Trump campaigns in West Palm Beach, Fla. and Cincinnati, Ohio. Pence stops in Orefield and Bethlehem, Pa.

At the White House: Obama travels to Pittsburgh, Pa. to tour projects and speak at the White House Frontiers Conference. Later, he travels to Columbus, Ohio to speak at an event for Ted Strickland. Biden campaigns for Clinton in Las Vegas and speaks at a DCCC event in Los Angeles.

On Capitol Hill: The Senate and House are out.

NEWS YOU CAN USE IF YOU LIVE IN D.C.:

-- A mild, “seasonally appropriate” day ahead. Today’s Capital Weather Gang forecast: “Patches of fog and variable cloud cover in the morning but partly cloudy is a reasonable descriptor. A cold front pushes across the area in the afternoon leading to mostly cloudy conditions for a time with a slight chance for a shower or sprinkle. West winds are light. Highs should peak in the low-to-mid 70s.”

-- D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser and Govs. Larry Hogan and Terry McAuliffe gathered on Wednesday to discuss a one-cent regional sales tax proposal that would cover Metro’s long term funding needs. The trio remains split on the idea, however: Bowser made a passionate plea for the funding but Hogan remains cool. (Robert McCartney)

-- Two men and a woman were shot and injured in three separate attacks within a 35 minute period in Southeast and Northeast D.C., capping off a violent night in the city. Police said they do not believe the attacks were related. (Peter Hermann)

VIDEOS OF THE DAY:

Trump’s newest commercial that calls the Clintons “corrupt.” A narrator asks, “How did Hillary end up filthy rich? Pay to play politics. Staggering amounts of cash poured into the Clinton Foundation from criminals, dictators, countries that hate America. Hillary cut deals for donors, sold out American workers, exploited Haitians in need [and] even gave American uranium rights to the Russians. Hillary Clinton only cares about power, money and herself.”

Clinton released a new ad featuring Obama:

-- The Pro-Clinton super PAC Priorities USA launched a brutal ad on predominantly African American radio stations in North Carolina, Florida and Ohio. The spot highlights racial comments by Trump, including his birtherism and refusal to immediately disavow Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke. Listen:

A new Ted Strickland ad calls Rob Portman "a coward" for sticking with Trump as long as he did:

Darrell Issa's opponent launches an attack ad built entirely around the footage from the bus:

Saturday Night Live previewed its next Trump-Clinton sketch:

Seth Meyers took a closer look at Trump and the GOP crisis:

Meyers also presented his own version of the presidential debate:

Finally, check out this tape of Hurricane Nicole from space: