| Is public opinion in EU countries pushing toward a settlement in Ukraine? A recent study provides food for thought — and suggests this might be the case. As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, it is increasingly clear that the conflict will be determined not just on the battlefield but also in Western capitals, where decision-makers are sensitive to the national public opinion. With Ukrainian forces short of ammunition and forced to retreat in some areas, Kyiv’s ability to repel Russia’s invasion depends heavily on Western military, financial, and political backing. A bill stuck in the US Congress that includes some $60 billion in aid for Ukraine – much of it military – is vital for Kyiv’s forces. A decisive factor for the short term will be whether EU partners can catch up with Russia’s heated artillery production and supply Ukraine with the shells and barrels they need. On the other side, Vladimir Putin is banking on the resources of his vast country and its allies, North Korea and Iran, but also war fatigue in the West to help achieve a Russian victory. The study “Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine” by ECFR, the European Council of Foreign Relations, reveals that public opinion in the 12 EU countries where polls were conducted seems to tilt toward a settlement, as a majority of Europeans seem pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances of winning the war. However, expecting a settlement is not the same as preferring such an outcome in this war, the report’s authors, Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, point out. Respondents in three countries – Poland, Portugal, and Sweden – clearly preferred supporting Ukraine’s efforts to take back its territory.
In five others, however – Austria, Greece, Hungary, Italy, and Romania – people tend to want their governments to push Kyiv to accept a settlement. Meanwhile, the public is more divided on this in France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain. | 