29/03/24View in Browser

The Keynesian times are over

By Jonathan Packroff

** Dear readers,
The Brief will take a short break and be back with you on 8 April.

 

Faced with the far-reaching implications of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and a mounting global energy crisis from 2021 onwards, European governments have embraced a Keynesian approach, spending billions to keep companies afloat and help consumers. But those times are over.

As many economics students have long learnt through a widely popular 1994 rap video, macroeconomic policy can be described as a back-and-forth between two competing schools of thought.

One is the classical liberal theory, which bets on markets to restore equilibrium naturally and argues for minimal state intervention.

The other is Keynesianism, which assigns a much bigger role to governments, particularly in fighting off economic crises, and builds on the premise that even in tight economic conditions, spending is needed to spur spending.

Contrary to the 2012 European sovereign debt crisis, which was accompanied by a sweeping rise of austerity policies—hinging on the opposite theory that during economic crises, governments need to turn off the tap of public spending—the COVID pandemic saw the Keynesian approach dominate across the bloc, preventing what was threatening to turn into the biggest shock to European economies since the Second World War. 

European governments spent billions to keep people in jobs via furlough or short-work-schemes, supported by the EU’s SURE program, which enabled more favourable lending conditions for an additional spending of €98 billion.

The crisis also led the EU to overstep a previously critical red line for many countries, taking on joint debt and dispersing the money to member states through the “Next Generation EU” recovery programme, initially worth €723 billion.

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Photo of the day

A tourist takes a picture of the sculptural fountain 'The Apollo Basin' by French sculptor Jean-Baptiste Tuby following restoration works in the Gardens of the Palace of Versailles, west of Paris, France, 29 March 2024. The gardens of the Chateau de Versailles will be the host venue for equestrian events and the modern pentathlon at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games and Paralympic Games. The Apollo Fountain is presented after a year of restoration marking the launch of the new season of Grandes Eaux Musicales. EPA-EFE/CHRISTOPHE PETIT TESSON

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The Roundup

The EU and US are in close contact over artificial intelligence (AI) risks and mitigation, including a possible partnership for a framework on generative AI, according to an unreleased draft statement, seen by Euractiv, for a joint meeting to be held on 4-5 April.

debate over children’s addiction to digital technology, and what can be done about it, is gaining support in France, while at an EU level, there are rumblings for regulation on addictive design.

During a three-day official visit to Brazil, French President Emmanuel Macron floated the idea of a new EU-Mercosur deal which could go beyond just trade while critics and supporters await the finer details.

A new compromise text of the draft legislation to detect and remove online child sexual abuse material (CSAM) by the Belgian Presidency of the European Council, seen by Euractiv, focuses on risk assessment, detection orders, and reporting.

French MPs have backed a bill to expand intelligence services competencies to monitor networks, re-opening a debate on democratic control of these agencies.

Looking for more policy news? Don’t miss this week’s Tech BriefAgrifood Brief, and the Economy Brief.

Look out for…

  • Commissioner Iliana Ivanova in China Friday-Sunday; Japan Monday-Wednesday.
  • Informal meeting of transport ministers, Wednesday-Thursday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]

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