| For too long, Russia has been a master of meddling in many places in its neighbourhood all at once, but Moscow might be slowly overplaying its hand. After Russia signed the Minsk Agreements in 2015, freezing its war in the Donbas, it turned to Syria and launched a military intervention, where Assad’s army was about to be defeated. With the help of Russian airpower and Iranian-backed forces, Assad's troops managed to recapture Aleppo from opposition forces in 2016, cementing Moscow's role as the decisive external actor in Syria and marking the launch of a more assertive Russian foreign policy. Russia then turned its attention closer to home – it invested efforts to destabilise countries in its near neighbourhood by prepping up Kremlin-friendly actors in Belarus, the Western Balkans, Moldova, and Georgia and positioning military might next to Ukraine's borders. In a recent, surprising push against Aleppo, Turkey-backed rebels recaptured the city, undermining not only Assad’s remaining grip on power but also Russia’s position in the Middle East – and its reputation as a global player. A telling indication of that was a video circulating on social media recorded in a Russian advisory office at Aleppo’s military academy after the rebels took it. Assad's key allies, Russia and Iran, have been distracted by the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon, respectively. This time around, Russia might not be able to help Assad – even if it would want to significantly. Military analysts point to the fact that Moscow cannot meaningfully aid its ally, as Moscow has moved most of its equipment to fortify its positions in Ukraine and Russian troops are already overstretched. | 
