French President Emmanuel Macron has postponed for the third time his visit to Ukraine. We can only speculate that one possible reason was because of security issues. Of all the possible risks for starting a direct military clash between Russia and the West, an attack on a Western leader on Ukrainian soil appears to be most likely. Since Russia started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, 25 heads of state and/or government of EU countries have visited Ukraine (all countries except Cyprus and Malta), several of them more than once. Top officials who have visited include US President Joe Biden (20 February 2023), two successive UK prime ministers, the president of Turkey, the prime ministers of Australia and Canada, and a few others, plus all NATO members except North Macedonia. When UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited Kyiv, the capital was bombed by Russia. This also coincided with the visit of then-Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, who was at the Kyiv train station when rockets hit nearby buildings. More recently, when Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visited Odesa together with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russian missiles landed at a close distance, reportedly targeting a warehouse containing sea drones. Each visit by such high-level guests to Ukraine increases the risk that even inadvertently, one of them may become the victim of a Russian attack and the incident could result in a casus belli. Macron has recently become the Western leader most determined to support Ukraine, ignoring “red lines”, and even admitting to the possibility of sending troops. This infuriated the Kremlin, with TV commentator Vladimir Solovyov quickly calling for nuclear strikes against France and other European cities. |