For the West, the current phase of the Ukraine war is certainly a bad time. The situation may still be reversible, but the war fatigue that has set in is not helping. One year ago, the West was confident that Russia would suffer enormously because of what was considered Vladimir Putin’s strategic mistake in invading Ukraine. The Russian army had made a joke of itself, while the Ukrainians proved to be much better prepared than was initially presumed. NATO grew stronger, with Finland and Sweden abandoning their traditional policy of neutrality, the EU gave a heartfelt welcome to Ukrainian refugees, mostly women and children. More and more modern weapons were reaching Ukraine, which started preparing its counteroffensive. But Moscow didn’t just stand and watch either. In the meantime, Russia built strong defences at the frontlines, illustrated by the famous ‘dragon teeth’, boosted conscription, improved military techniques, including by widening the use of drones, and put its military industry on a wartime footing. As a result, the much-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive wasn’t really successful. What we see on the front now is more a war of attrition, which plays into the hands of Russia, a much bigger country with a lot of resources and patience. |