“It’s the economy, stupid.” The phrase was coined by American political consultant James Carville in a TV quip in 1992 when he was advising Bill Clinton in his successful run for the White House. In 2023, as the EU prepares for European elections in June 2024, fixing the EU’s economy is emerging as the number one priority, eclipsing other issues such as the support for Ukraine or the renewed Middle East tensions. As the Financial Times reported on 4 November, a recently emerged consensus in the European Commission around the need for the Union to regain its competitive edge brought the return of Mario Draghi to the EU scene. The former European Central Bank Chief, famous for his “whatever it takes” speech, which marked a turnaround in the European sovereign debt crisis, was tasked with producing a report on the state of EU competitiveness and how to fix it. Simply put, the 27-member EU has a population of 420 million, while the US has 332 million. But the EU economy today represents 65% of the US economy, while ten years ago, the EU economy was equal to 91% of the US economy. Indeed, 10 years ago, the UK was part of the EU, but the widening gap tendency is clear. With the internet revolution, the US took a giant leap forward as major conglomerates such as the GAFA gained global influence. In China, giants such as Alibaba also emerged, while nothing worth mentioning happened on the EU side. Today’s fears are that AI will further widen the gap between the EU, the US, and China. Ahead of US President Joe Biden’s meeting with his Chinese colleague Xi Jinping tomorrow, Washington called it a meeting of the “world’s two largest economies”. Two years ago, China surpassed the aggregated EU economy and has plans to be the number one world economy by 2030. Why are we in decline? |