Editorialists can sometimes feel bad if they read columns they wrote a couple of years ago or even a couple of months ago. I start today’s Brief with this disclaimer. We all make mistakes. We collectively thought Angela Merkel was the best leader the EU could have, and we regretted her departure. Now, after she acted as if she was Vladimir Putin’s asset, including by spearheading Germany’s addiction to Russian gas, the best that could be said about her is that she is doing everyone a favour by taking her retirement seriously. Many people in Brussels think Ursula von der Leyen will win another mandate as Commission chief. Many believe, and I agree, that she has shown wondrous leadership in the context of Russia’s brutal aggression against Ukraine. But is this enough? To get the top job, one needs the support of a qualified majority of EU heads of state and government and a simple majority vote in the European parliament. Maths aside, in practice, without the support of France, any candidate will fail. In 2019, von der Leyen was a surprise proposal by Emmanuel Macron. Viktor Orbán voted against it, but that wasn’t an obstacle. In the European Parliament, the vote was tight, and she passed, thanks to the votes of the outgoing pro-EU British MEPs. |