Rugby World Cups aren’t adding up for major unions and there is no easy fix

South Africa no longer see hosting as viable and World Rugby is under pressure to deliver for its members

The starting gun has been fired on the race to host the 2035 and 2039 Rugby World Cup tournaments. Expressions of interest have been made: Spain’s proposal has piqued interest, Italy’s too, while the Middle East stalks along as the elephant in the room. The idea of going back to Japan within 20 years of a first World Cup in Asia is a popular proposition.

News came over the weekend, however, that South Africa has all but ruled out a bid for either edition of the tournament. South Africa threw its hat into the ring in 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023 but was overlooked on each occasion and the SA Rugby president, Mark Alexander, was brutally honest when asked about the prospect of doing so again.

“It just brings so many other challenges to the country,” he said. “People think it is just a sports event but so many other things have to be activated. I will tell [SA Rugby] not to do this. We are a third-world country. Our economy is not strong and we have to act responsibly. I know sport does a lot for social cohesion but I think it would be unfair on [the] government to put up guarantees.”

It is a desperate shame that the winners of the past two World Cups do not consider it financially viable to bid and the 2023 bidding process looks all the more ham-fisted now.

To recap, World Rugby introduced a process whereby a technical review of the candidates would lead to recommendation by the governing body’s board. South Africa emerged as the recommended bidder but World Rugby’s council ignored the recommendation and in an anonymous vote, opted for France, whose bid was based on a promise to prevent “the death of rugby” with its financial clout.

Reflecting on the decision during South Africa’s autumn tour, the centre Damian de Allende said: “It’s heartbreaking, it was in our hands and it got taken away from us. I know we won the World Cup last year but it would have been a lot more special to have hosted it and won it. I get a bit sad speaking about it because I don’t know when we will host another World Cup.”

Is there any other sport in which three highest-ranked nations may feasibly never host a future World Cup? South Africa and New Zealand have won the last five World Cups between them and contested the most recent final. But at this stage it is also hard to see the tournament returning to New Zealand. The union’s chief executive, Mark Robinson, admitted as much in 2022, saying it would be “really challenging”. He rowed back on those comments a year later but with the 2027 World Cup expanding to 24 teams, New Zealand doesn’t have the infrastructure to mount a realistic bid.

In Ireland’s case, they were the third horse in the race for the 2023 tournament but came up short, crucially failing to gain the backing of Scotland – a neighbourly snub that still rankles. As revealed by the Guardian, a united home nations bid for the 2031 World Cup was proposed but soon shelved because, it is said, agreement on where to stage the final could not be reached.

Instead, in six years, the World Cup breaks new ground in the US. Australia – with its wealth of impressive stadiums – hosts the next edition but it is 2031 occupying minds at World Rugby at present. Executives wanted the British & Irish Lions to play in Las Vegas on the way to Australia this summer and may be heartened by the suggestion they could stop off in Sin City in 2029, on the way to New Zealand. England’s fixture in Washington, in July, and another clash between the All Blacks and Ireland in Chicago later this year is further evidence of spreading the gospel.

Because World Rugby is under pressure to deliver. The 2023 World Cup proved costly for France – an expected net loss of €13m (£11.1m), according to a damning report over mismanagement released earlier this month by the French court of audit – but for World Rugby it generated record-breaking revenues of €500m (£429m).

Still, when the Irish union released its accounts last November, reporting an €18.4m (£15.8m) deficit, the chief executive, Kevin Potts, was strident in his view that the cost of competing in a World Cup, exacerbated by losing autumn internationals revenue, is a problem. “It [the World Cup] is a value transfer from the unions to the tournament,” he said.

“We get some funding over the following years out of World Rugby but it doesn’t match what it costs us. It’s also being used to develop the game globally. It’s not working and World Rugby are aware that we and other unions are challenged by this and we need to look, is there a better way? We certainly can’t continue to have World Cups every four years that are having such a major impact in that year on our finances.”

That view was echoed by the Rugby Football Union chief executive, Bill Sweeney, after record losses were announced at a similar time. “We’re right in the middle of this conversation,” Sweeney told the Business of Sport podcast. “We feel that in many ways you could say that the losses we make in that fourth year are subsidising the investment by World Rugby into the growth of the emerging nations because the revenue shift for us is about £45m in that fourth year, we make a big loss in that fourth year.

“It’s the same for the other unions as well, so the Six Nations and Sanzaar are saying this doesn’t make any sense. The blue riband event where we’re generating an awful lot of value, we’re getting a very small percentage of the overall profit being generated from that event. I can see it from World Rugby’s point of view because they’re saying, ‘our remit is to grow the game globally’, so we’ve got to invest in emerging markets but at the moment it is creating some real financial hardship and difficulties for the tier one unions.”

It is quite the conversation but as Sweeney suggests, how can World Rugby justify cutting funding of the have-nots to give more to the haves? The only viable solution appears to be to ensure World Cups generate more revenue, hence the American gold rush before a likely return to Europe in 2035. The smart money is on Japan in 2039 after 2019 was, at the time, the most lucrative tournament in history.

It also brings us back to the elephant in the room. Suffice it to say, World Rugby will pay close attention to the Nations Championship finals in 2028, which are slated for Qatar. But the Middle East could not stage a World Cup in the traditional September-October slot due to heat and domestic leagues would have something to say about moving it to winter. Equally, the Six Nations has been intransigent to moving dates in the past and World Rugby would struggle to countenance a tournament in which the hosts do not take part. At present the Gulf nations are nowhere near competitive enough.

All that said, against the backdrop outlined by Potts and Sweeney, the response to the Middle East question by World Rugby’s chief executive, Alan Gilpin, makes all the more sense. “Any region that wants to invest in the game, we’re going to take those conversations seriously.”

Pollock emerges as Lions bolter

Northampton’s Henry Pollock has emerged as the popular candidate to fulfil the role of potential British & Irish Lions bolter – a concept that is anachronistic yet sums up why there is still so much to love about these quadrennial tours. The head coach, Andy Farrell, was not at Franklin’s Gardens to watch his performance against Castres last Saturday, however. Instead, after taking in another Leinster demolition job on Friday night, he made his way to Galway for Connacht’s Challenge Cup clash against Racing 92. Perhaps he was casting an eye over Bundee Aki, maybe having a look at Mack Hansen. The irresistible narrative is that he was running the rule over his son Owen, scoping out whether the 33-year-old is back to form after a lengthy injury layoff. Or maybe Andy Farrell was at Connacht simply as a father, enjoying the simple pleasure of watching his son in action. Either way, with only three more weekends of fixtures before Farrell names his squad, the intrigue is set to skyrocket.

Still want more?

England outlasted Ireland to stay on course for the grand slam in the Women’s Six Nations, reports Sarah Rendell.

Northampton set up a Champions Cup rematch with Leinster after an emphatic win against Castre, writes Robert Kitson.

And Bath’s quest for trophies stepped up with a dominant Challenge Cup victory against Gloucester. Daniel Gallan was watching.

Memory lane

England will host Scotland at Welford Road on Saturday in the Women’s Six Nations – so let’s take a trip back to 1999, when the two teams met in the Five Nations, at Richmond RFC. England won 34-7 on their way to the grand slam.

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