| | | | Monday, August 16, 2021 | | When it comes to the preseason, you have to strike a balance between overreacting and not reacting at all. Especially when it comes to the first game, you might have a knee-jerk reaction to everything you see out there, because we haven't actually watched any real football in six months. It's a perfect opportunity for confirmation bias to take over -- the player you like played with the starters and played well, so obviously that means he's going to be a stud. You have to try to fight against that very natural reaction. | | But you also don't want to ignore it completely, especially when it comes to how position battles are playing out. Yeah, it doesn't matter that Tom Brady only played six snaps, but it might matter that Giovani Bernard out-snapped Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones. It was nice to see sleeper WR Terrace Marshall put together some big plays for the Panthers, but the more important thing is that, with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson inactive, they used him like the No. 1 receiver. | | My goal today is to help you figure out what mattered and what didn't for the first week of the preseason. Nobody's value changed dramatically -- well, almost nobody, but more on that when we get to the biggest loser of the weekend -- but we added more information to our understanding of who some of these guys are and how they might be used. There are still two games and four weeks of practices left until the season begins, so we'll add a lot more to the ledger moving forward. For now, here's where things stand for the guys who did play. | | But first, just a quick reminder about our ongoing auctions to raise money for St. Jude Children's Research Hospital as part of our upcoming Fantasy Football Today Draft-A-Thon on Sept. 1. We've got a lot of awesome stuff for you to bid on -- like a chance to play in the 2022 Scott Fish Bowl gigantic industry league with me, which is still open for three more days -- or a spot in the FFT podcast listener's league -- which is currently going for a whopping $2,079, which is amazing. There's a ton more fun stuff, including opportunities to interact with the whole FFT crew as well as a bunch of our best friends from around the Fantasy Football industry, so head over to the St. Jude Ebay page to see everything we've got to offer. It's for a cause we all really care about. | | Now, here's who helped or hurt their value over the weekend: | | Biggest winner(s) | | | | Jamey Eisenberg, Adam Aizer, and I discussed our biggest takeaways from the weekend's preseason action on Monday's episode of Fantasy Football Today, so if you want more, click below to listen! Also, Dave Richard was in Detroit for the Lions first preseason game and came away with a lot more questions about D'Andre Swift's chances of being the breakout star running back we're hoping he can be. But Dave liked what he saw from Terrace Marshall and Parris Campbell in their preseason debuts, so make sure you add them to your late-round sleepers lists. | | | | The rookie quarterbacks -- The five first-rounders got their first taste of NFL action this weekend, and at the very least, none of them fell on their faces. Obviously, playing well in a quarter of preseason action with and against mostly backups doesn't tell us much of anything about how a player's career will go, but Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones all looked like they belong. Fields especially looked like he more than belonged, which has been the story throughout training camp, and it feels inevitable he will take Andy Dalton's starting job before long, even if it isn't by Week 1. He's a late-round stash in all leagues, and you especially have to love how he had permission to use his legs to make plays. | | Lance had arguably the biggest highlight of the bunch with his 80-yard touchdown strike to Trent Sherfield, but he also completed 5 of 14 passes and made a few poor decisions -- which is what Kyle Shanahan has been telling us about all throughout camp. He seems less likely to take the QB1 job than Fields, but he'll be a high-upside option whenever he gets the call. | | Lawrence, Jones, and Wilson all mostly looked passable in their time out there -- nothing incredible, but nothing worrisome either. It'll be interesting to see whether Jones really starts pushing Cam Newton for more first-team reps -- in practice Sunday, Newton still led things off, but he and Jones split reps pretty closely. | | So far, so good. Everybody gets a passing grade, but Fields gets the only 'A' in my eyes. | | Biggest loser | | | | Myles Gaskin -- Gaskin is a decent player, but the biggest thing he has going for him is the fact that he played at least 65% of the Dolphins offensive snaps in each game last season. Which is to say, the biggest thing he had going for him may have gone up in smoke Saturday as Malcolm Brown served as the lead back in Miami's preseason opener. | | Brown played 16 of 23 snaps with Tua Tagovailoa and the first-team offense in the game, according to Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke, beginning each drive with the starters before Gaskin came in as a clear complementary player. Gaskin then kept playing with the second-team offense while Brown's day ended with the rest of the starters. | | If Gaskin isn't the lead back in Miami, he's just a bench piece for Fantasy, but even if he's down to 50% of the snaps, he might not be more than a desperation starter if Brown is cutting into his passing downs and goal-line work -- exactly what he did to Cam Akers early on last season. And the thing is, Gaskin is no Akers, so he's not in any way guaranteed to force Brown out of that role. I'll leave Gaskin just inside the top 30 at RB, but you can't draft him comfortably as a starter based on what we know right now. | | More preseason winners | | Marquez Callaway -- Callaway played every snap with the starters and earned four of Taysom Hill's 12 targets, turning them into three catches for 61 yards. We've heard a lot about Callaway lately, as he has seemingly stepped into the lead wide receiver role with Michael Thomas (and Tre'Quan Smith) out. Hopefully, we'll get to see him with Jameis Winston next week, because there's a lot more upside with Winston at QB than Hill, but Callaway should be drafted in the final rounds of every draft at this point. Josh Palmer -- Palmer saw fewer snaps than Jalen Guyton but was a much bigger part of the offense, catching six of seven passes thrown his way. He was used primarily for short-area targets, so it's fair to wonder how much value the third-round pick might have with Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen around, and Guyton will certainly have a role as one of the primary deep threats in the offense. But this was a promising start for the sleeper. Bryan Edwards -- Edwards didn't even play this weekend, which is what helps make him a winner in my book, because none of the other starters for the Raiders did either. That includes Henry Ruggs , which shows you where both stand. Ruggs is going in the Round 10 range in NFC drafts since Aug. 1, but Edwards' ADP is still squarely in the "typically undrafted" range, but if you're looking for a late-round sleeper at WR, he's a great choice. KJ Hamler -- Hamler benefited from both Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton not suiting up, so it's still hard to tell exactly where he falls in the receiving hierarchy, but he certainly helped his case with two big plays, including a long touchdown. Sure, it was also against a Vikings team that rested pretty much every single starter, but Hamler took on the guys in front of him and made plays. This offense probably doesn't have much room for him to be more than an occasional boom-or-bust Fantasy WR, but if he keeps showing out, he may force the issue as the No. 3 WR. Terrace Marshall -- Marshall played all over the field and led the starting unit with 18 snaps. He also had the biggest play of the day for either side, when he pushed upfield when he saw P.J. Walker scrambling and hauled in a 60-yard pass. He's been working a lot in the slot in camp, but played all over the field Saturday, a good sign for a guy who looks locked in as the No. 3 WR in an offense that produced three top-30 WR a year ago. Rondale Moore -- I've referred to Moore as the "skeleton key that can unlock the Cardinals passing game," and you saw exactly what I meant against the Cowboys. He played six of seven snaps with the starters and Kliff Kingsbury drew up a ton of designed looks for him early on. He ended up with four targets and two carries for the game, and you have to like the potential they clearly see in him. It's an open question whether he'll open the season as the No. 3 WR or if Christian Kirk will be ahead of him on the depth chart, but Moore is one of my favorite late-round WR targets in this offense, especially since the Cardinals run more four-WR sets than any team in the league. Jacob Harris -- Another guy garnering a ton of training camp buzz, Harris led the Rams in receptions (4), yards (43) and targets (seven) in the opener. That was without the top four WR and top two TE on the depth chart, so take it with a grain of salt, as the fourth-rounder is still very much a project who has to earn a role with the real offense come the regular season. But it's become clear since the start of camp they intend to have a role for him, and he's worth a look in deeper leagues and especially in Dynasty. | | More preseason losers | | Michael Carter -- With Tevin Coleman inactive, we would've assumed Carter would have been the lead back, but it was actually Ty Johnson , who played 13 of 22 snaps alongside Zach Wilson. Carter played nine snaps, and it was Johnson who got all of the third-down work -- especially surprising since Carter has drawn so much praise for his work in the passing game in camp. Both also saw time after Wilson left, so it's not like Carter just left with the starters. That's a tough look, because we already know Coleman will be a part of this running game, too. Carter may end up fighting Johnson off and earning more of an even split with Coleman -- or even a lead role -- but right now, it looks like Carter's stuck in a committee, and he's not the big part of it. David Johnson -- We sort of wrote it off when the Texans listed Johnson behind both Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram on the depth chart, but that's exactly how they were used with Tyrod Taylor in the game. Actually, it was worse than that for Johnson, because he played just two snaps with Taylor, both on third downs, and Ingram wasn't even available. The Texans re-structured Johnson's contract when they could have cut him for less than his present salary, so it's surprising that he's being relegated to a bit role, but that seems to be where we are right now. He'd still be the back to draft in PPR, but he can't go inside of the top-100 right now, and Lindsay shouldn't be far after him in any format. James Robinson/Travis Etienne -- We didn't see much of the Jaguars top backs in the opener, so we don't want to take too much out of it. However, it's worth noting that Carlos Hyde played six snaps compared to Robinson's seven and Etienne's 13. In 15 with Trevor Lawrence on the field, Robinson saw seven, Etienne saw five, and Hyde had three. It's a minimal role for Hyde, but when you're talking about going from a two-back split to a three-back split, every little bit hurts. The Jaguars have talked about viewing Hyde as a key part of their offense, and we've just sort of shrugged it off. Maybe we shouldn't?Ronald Jones /Leonard Fournette -- We saw even less of the Buccaneers running backs, as Tom Brady played just six snaps and Jones and Fournette were out there for two of each. Giovani Bernard was on the field for four snaps, and while this is too small of a sample size to draw any major conclusions, it is fitting with what we've heard from camp: That Bernard will have a big role. Jones figures to be the lead back on early downs, but Fournette will be a part of that role, too. Bernard, meanwhile, figures to have the passing down work largely to himself. He could end up the best back here. Amon-Ra St. Brown -- The issue for St. Brown isn't just that he only played 11 of the 22 snaps Jared Goff was on the field for. It's also that the Lions used him exclusively as a slot receiver, so he was never on the field for one- or two-receiver sets. St. Brown figures to be productive out of the slot, but the Lions are going to be a run-heavy team by design -- at least until they fall behind -- which likely means St. Brown will be coming off the field quite a lot. It's not necessarily a great recipe for Fantasy. Adam Trautman -- Trautman played 15 of 20 snaps with Taysom Hill in the game, which is a good sign. What isn't a good sign is that six of those snaps were runs, and three of the remaining nine saw Trautman asked to pass block, per PFF. That means Trautman ran a route on just six of Hill's 13 drop backs. This wasn't the role we were hoping to see for TrautmanKenneth Gainwell -- Miles Sanders didn't play for the Eagles and Gainwell was still the third running back to see the field, behind Jordan Howard and Boston Scott . Those two aren't exactly immovable objects on the depth chart, but Gainwell seems to have some work to do to lock in a valuable role. Right now, it looks like Scott is slated for the passing downs role we're hoping Gainwell can work his way into. Denzel Mims -- There have been promising signs for Mims in practice over the last week or so, but Mims didn't even see the field on Zach Wilson's 22 snaps, with Keelan Cole, Vyncint Smith, Jamison Crowder, Corey Davis, and Jeff Smith all playing ahead of him. And that was with Elijah Moore sidelined by an injury. There has been speculation that Mims' spot on the roster isn't safe, and if he's this deep on the depth chart, you should believe it. He's an intriguing talent because of his physical skills, but Mims has his work cut out for him just to earn a spot on the team, it looks like. Javian Hawkins -- I'd been targeting Hawkins late in drafts as a potential sleeper in the Falcons backfield, but with Mike Davis, Qadree Ollison, and Cordarelle Patterson all out Friday, Hawkins didn't even start. He split carries with Caleb Huntley , who actually out-snapped Hawkins nine to seven. There's still a chance he earns a role, but Hawkins is officially off my draft board for 12-team leagues right now. | | Injuries, News, and Notes | | Curtis Samuel (groin) was taken off the PUP list -- Samuel has been recovering from a groin injury since minicamp, but this is a big step in the right direction. He was limited to individual drills in his first day back at practice Sunday, and the last time Ron Rivera spoke about it, it sounded like Samuel may not play much in the preseason. However, he knows the playbook from his time with Rivera in Carolina, so as long as he's healthy, he should be a big part of this offense. Samuel is one of my favorite values at any position in drafts right now, and I think there is real upside for a significant breakout. I wrote about why in my breakouts piece last week. Dak Prescott's MRI showed progress -- Great news! Prescott is expected to participate in practice this week for the first time since suffering the injury, albeit on a limited basis. He's mostly been limited to light throws on the side, but this will be his first actual practice. All along, both Prescott and the Cowboys have downplayed the severity of the injury, saying if it was the regular season he would have been playing through it, and thankfully, this seems to confirm that sunny outlook. As long as Prescott puts this issue behind him without setbacks, he should be in the discussion for one of the first six quarterbacks taken in every draft, and the Cowboys' offense should be treated like one of the best in the NFL. Jonnu Smith left practice Sunday with an ankle injury -- The injury was a low ankle sprain and isn't considered serious, which is a good sign for the Patriots, who are already down Hunter Henry with a shoulder injury. Henry's sounds more serious, and if it forces him to miss time in the regular season, Smith immediately enters the top-10 TE range. With Henry active, both will be outside of my top 12. Jordan Love had an MRI on his shoulder -- The results showed no structural damage, so Love should be ready to go by the start of the regular season as Aaron Rodgers backup -- and still-presumed heir apparent. However, we may not see much of him in the preseason at this point. Justin Jackson suffered a groin injury -- It sounded like Jackson had moved into the RB2 role for the Chargers, and in the preseason opener, he was used primarily on rushing downs while Joshua Kelley handled the passing work -- which is to say, Kelley played the Austin Ekeler role while Jackson played what could be his role. If he's healthy, that is. This offense should have room for multiple Fantasy relevant running backs, but Jackson has struggled with injuries over the past two seasons and now he's gotta get right from this. It's not clear how serious the injury is, but given that all Jackson has going for him is his potential role in the offense, any loss of playing time could make him irrelevant. Anthony Miller has a dislocated shoulder -- It's being characterized as a "slight" dislocation, but for a guy who has dealt with shoulder issues multiple times in his career, there might not be any such thing as a minor injury there. Miller wasn't likely to have much of a Fantasy relevant role in this offense, but his absence could lead to more opportunities for rookie Nico Collins, who remains the only non-Brandin Cooks pass-catcher on this team worth looking at even in deeper leagues. Elijah Moore is day to day with his quad injury -- Moore did not practice Monday, but the injury is not considered a serious one. It may be too serious to let him play in Saturday's preseason game against the Packers, and we'd definitely prefer to see him running with the first team in game action before investing in him. But Moore is worth a late-round pick in all leagues as long as he projects to be healthy by Week 1, because he has apparently been by far the best WR in camp for the Jets. | | | | | | | | 24/7 Sports News | | Start a Football Pool Today! | Stream 2,000+ soccer matches a year from UEFA Champions League, Europa League, Serie A, NWSL, USMNT & USWNT in Concacaf qualifiers and much more. Start your free trial today!
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