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| Thursday, March 7, 2024 |
| Average Draft Position is a funny thing. It plays such a huge role in the discourse around Fantasy Baseball drafts every season, even though we all know the limitations in the data. |
| For one thing, as we showed yesterday, what site you play on has a potentially huge impact on what the "average" ends up being, with some players going significantly higher on some sites while others go significantly lower , for no other reason than that's what the default rankings and/or projections built into the draft room. Even something as simple as which ranking or projection the draft room defaults to when there are multiple options can play a big role in how players are valued. |
| And then, of course, there's a question of league format. Does 15-team ADP tell us much about what you should expect to see in a 12-team league? Surely, Roto ADP won't tell us very much about how you should value players in a H2H points league. |
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| And then there's just the fact that ADP is just that: An average. I mean, alright, Ronald Acuña's ADP tells you a lot about where you should expect him to be drafted, because it's 1.0. But Bobby Witt and Julio Rodriguez have both gone anywhere from first to seven in NFBC drafts, and the ranges only get wider as you go further down the board – Adolis Garcia, a fourth-round pick on "average" has gone anywhere from 15th through 70th, so that average doesn't tell us that much about what we should actually expect to see. |
| Still, there's wisdom in the crowds, and ADP can help serve as a roadmap for how most drafts will go. There will be deviations, often huge ones, in every league, but it's still a very useful tool to look at when prepping for your draft. And it can be especially helpful to look at trends, and that's what we're doing today. I've taken a look at the biggest changes in ADP in NFBC drafts since the start of March compared to February, and today's newsletter is all about looking at the 10 biggest risers and fallers in that time span. |
| Tomorrow, we'll get you ready for any weekend drafts with a roundup of all the news you need to know from around the league, including playing time notes, injury updates, and a whole bunch more. But for now, let's look at the latest ADP trends: |
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| 10 biggest ADP risers |
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| For the most part, these are players who have "helped" their cause in Spring Training, which is always a tricky situation. You shouldn't totally ignore spring results, but you definitely shouldn't change how you view a player just because they got hot against a lineup half-full of Double-A guys, either. Especially with the sample sizes as small as they are – Jackson Chourio and Ezequiel Duran are the leaders in at-bats this spring right now with … 27. That's like six regular season games, and you wouldn't change how you feel about any player based on six games in April, right? |
| Here are the 10 players whose price has increased the most since the start of March: |
| James Wood, OF, WAS -- Feb. ADP: 617.8; March ADP: 442.5 |
| Wood almost certainly isn't going to break camp with the Nationals, but he's making a heck of a case, hitting .474/.600/.947 with six walks and four strikeouts in his first nine spring games. He'll probably open the season at Triple-A and should be up before the summer if he avoids falling on his face, and is a terrific late-round stash in leagues where it makes sense. |
| Wyatt Langford, OF, TEX -- Feb. ADP: 150.3; March ADP: 113.0 |
| There are still some questions about whether Langford will break camp, because they don't really have a spot available in the outfield and may prefer not to have him as a full-time DH this early in his career. On the other hand, Langford absolutely dominated the minors in his first taste and is doing the same in his first spring training, and might not have much left to gain from minor-league seasoning. 113.0 is a pretty steep price, but a justifiable one for a guy who might be a candidate for 25-20 as a rookie (and that's not the ceiling). |
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| A.J. Puk, P, MIA -- Feb. ADP: 460.9; March ADP: 349.4 |
| With Braxton Garrett looking unlikely for Opening Day, Puk has a rotation spot seemingly locked up for the Marlins . But he might have been pitching himself into one even without Garrett's injury. Puk has only thrown five innings this spring, but he's been dominant, with nine strikeouts, three walks, and one hit allowed while showcasing a deeper arsenal featuring a cutter and splitter. Puk hasn't proven he can hold up to a full-time starting role, but he's put up a 3.72 ERA and 28.8% strikeout rate in the majors over 147.2 innings, so we know the stuff plays in the majors. As a late-round sleeper, he's a very good target. |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto, P, LAD -- Feb. ADP: 43.8; March ADP: 34.4 |
| We're getting into the third round in a 12-team league, and that's a hefty price to pay for a pitcher who has never thrown a pitch in anger in the majors. And, after a sterling first spring outing, he was hit around a bit in his second Wednesday, giving up five earned runs on six hits and three walks in three innings of work. The defense let him down a bit, but it still wasn't a great showing for a guy you have to draft as an ace. He's got incredible upside, but I preferred his previous price, and I might be out at this one. |
| Cole Ragans, P, KC -- Feb. ADP: 105.4; March ADP: 83.6 |
| Ragans has looked terrific this spring, but I'm not sure that should really be pushing his price up. We knew he was good last season, striking out 89 batters over 71.2 innings with a 2.74 over 12 starts after joining the Royals, so this isn't really new information. The one thing this spring has taught us is that Ragans hasn't just sustained last year's velocity gains; he's expanded on them. He's fine at his new price. |
| Jackson Merrill, SS, SD -- Feb. ADP: 536.1; March ADP: 426.2 |
| Merrill isn't exactly dominating in spring yet, but he hasn't been overwhelmed either, hitting .273/.360/.318 in his first eight games. He's climbing because it looks increasingly likely that the consensus top-20 prospect in baseball will be in the Padres outfield on Opening Day as a 20-year-old. He's a long shot to be an impact player in Year one given his lack of present-day power, but you could be getting a 15-15 player with a helpful batting average here. |
| Chris Sale, P, ATL -- Feb. ADP: 138.9; March ADP: 113.6 |
| Sale's velocity is up this spring, and he's looked like his vintage self, with nine strikeouts and six baserunners allowed in 4.2 innings of work. But the thing about Sale is, if all he does is what he's done since the start of 2021 – 3.93 ERA, 1.185 WHIP, 182 strikeouts in 151 innings – he's probably a decent value at his current price. I don't have him ranked quite this high, so I'll probably end up missing out, but I don't mind the swing for upside here. |
| Carlos Estevez, P, LAA -- Feb. ADP: 276.2; March ADP: 228.6 |
| With Robert Stephenson nursing a sore shoulder, the Fantasy community has had to come to grips with the fact that its collective least favorite closer is, in fact, still his team's closer. The Angels have said so explicitly, and yet he remains a very solid value as one of the better late bets for saves. |
| Byron Buxton, UT, MIN -- Feb. ADP: 233.4; March ADP: 196.5 |
| Buxton's price continues to climb, and yet I continue to think he's a very nice value, if not quite a steal. Since his 2019 breakout, Buxton has averaged 24 homers and 11 steals per-100 games, so even if he doesn't stay healthy for long, he's likely going to be a nice contributor. And, for whatever it's worth, he's currently healthy, something we couldn't say this time last year, when he was nonetheless a top-100 pick. |
| Paul Skenes, P, PIT -- Feb. ADP: 320.4; March ADP: 270.9 |
| This one is going to move in the opposite direction after the Pirates confirmed that Skenes isn't going to break camp with the team, but I'm not going to bury him in the rankings. It probably won't be more than a month or two before Skenes gets called up, assuming he stays healthy, and he still has incredible upside. He was viewed as arguably the best pitching prospect in college since Stephen Strasburg , and Strasburg made his debut on June 8 the year after he was drafted. I wouldn't be surprised if Skenes beats that timeline. |
| Reynaldo Lopez, P, ATL -- Feb. ADP: 526.1; March ADP: 446.8 |
| With one earned one run on a solo homer across his first two spring outings, Lopez has seemingly solidified his hold on the fifth starter's spot for the Braves … and yet I find myself less interested in him as a late-round sleeper after seeing him in spring. The thing is, we've seen a lot of Lopez as a starter in the majors, and it's been awfully uninspiring – 4.73 ERA, 1.372 WHIP over 97 career starts. His velocity spiked in a relief role and he was much more effective, but it's been back down to the mid-90s so far in spring, and I'm just not sure he can be effective in that velocity range. I think Lopez is a fine late-round target in H2H points leagues, but my expectations are low. |
| Andres Munoz, P, SEA -- Feb. ADP: 115.2; March ADP: 98.4 |
| I guess Munoz's price is rising with Matt Brash's spring elbow injury, but I'm not sure the two things really should be related. Munoz was the guy they turned to after Paul Sewald was traded last summer, and I don't think there was much reason to assume he wouldn't be the guy even with a healthy Brash. However, with Brash's early-season status very much in doubt now, Munoz is the clear top option and should be treated as such. |
| 10 biggest ADP fallers |
| On the ADP fallers side of the leger, things are a bit different than for the risers. Because these 10 players all mostly have good reasons to be dropping: They're hurt. Now, being hurt on March 6 doesn't necessarily mean a player's price should go down, and it's entirely possible we'll look back in June at some of these prices as significant discounts. |
| But injuries are next to impossible to predict, and one surefire way to make sure you're exposing yourself to extra risk is by drafting players who are already hurt. Here are the 10 biggest ADP fallers since the start of March: |
| Kodai Senga, P, NYM -- Feb. ADP: 102.5; March ADP: 190.0 |
| Senga was diagnosed with a strain in his throwing shoulder at the end of February, so this tumble makes perfect sense. I have him ranked a bit higher than his March ADP, though there's something to keep in mind here: NFBC leagues don't have IL spots, so it's tougher to draft someone you know will be out at the beginning of the season. Still, I'd be happy to roll the dice at this price, and he still went with the last pick of the 13th round, 195th overall, in the Tout Wars mixed-league draft Tuesday night, a league with unlimited IL spots, so that's just the cost now. |
| Braxton Garrett, P, MIA -- Feb. ADP: 208.4; March ADP: 249.5 |
| Garrett's shoulder is improving, but he's not expected to be ready for the start of the season, and I'm honestly surprised he costs this much still. The price is fine, but Garrett isn't exactly the kind of high-upside arm you want to save a roster spot for. I'll probably let him go to some other team at this point. |
| Josh Lowe, OF, TB -- Feb. ADP: 72.6; March ADP: 83.2 |
| Lowe is still hoping to be ready for Opening Day despite his hip injury, so he could end up being a nice value with his price dropping. There's some risk here for a player who already has some platoon risk and relies on his athleticism for much of his Fantasy appeal. I probably need him to fall another round or two from his current price, but I also didn't love him even before the injury. Take the discount if you do. |
| Justin Verlander, P, HOU -- Feb. ADP: 140.5; March ADP: 159.9 |
| Verlander is another pitcher who won't be ready for Opening Day, but I'm kind of thinking of this as a buying opportunity. He dealt with a bit of shoulder discomfort prior to reporting to camp, and that has his prep for the season delayed. However, he's been throwing on the sides without issue, including a 60-pitch bullpen session last weekend. He's expected to face hitters for the first time soon, and could be just a few weeks behind schedule. You could argue he doesn't have ace upside anymore after his strikeout rate collapsed the past two seasons, but his results have nonetheless been very good, and I think he's a decent bet for 150 good innings. |
| Kevin Gausman, P, TOR -- Feb. ADP: 31.7; March ADP: 35.6 |
| The fall hasn't really been capture for Gausman, who had a bullpen session sidelined by shoulder fatigue two days ago. Since then, his ADP is down to 42.1, which is right around where I've dropped him since the news. There's still some risk at that price, but Gausman has top-five upside, and this might end up being just a blip on the radar, so I certainly don't want to bury him. |
| Ian Happ, OF, CHC -- Feb. ADP: 154.9; March ADP: 174.1 |
| Happ has been sidelined by a hamstring injury in spring, so his drop in the rankings makes some sense. It doesn't sound too serious, and he has a chance to be ready for Opening Day, but I get being spooked by the injury, just because Happ doesn't have a huge margin for error in his profile. Happ is a pretty good bet for around 20 homers and 10-15 steals, but he'll usually have a pretty bad batting average, and the counting stats are usually decent, but often not great. He's fine, in other words, but if he misses time, he starts to look a lot more replaceable. |
| David Bednar, P, PIT -- Feb. ADP: 84.4; March ADP: 93.0 |
| Yep, another injury, and another one where the past week's ADP doesn't tell the whole story – Bednar has gone 101.1 on average over the past two days since we learned about his lat injury. It may end up being nothing, but lat injuries have a tendency to linger longer than expected, so he'll have to avoid a setback whenever he is cleared to throw. He hasn't appeared in a spring training game yet, and it looks like Aroldis Chapman may get a chance to open the season as the Pirates closer. If you're taking Bednar, you probably need to take Chapman in the reserve rounds, just in case. |
| Christian Walker, 1B, ARZ -- Feb. ADP: 86.4; March ADP: 94.6 |
| This is one I just don't understand! Walker didn't seem especially overvalued to me before this, and while he did have a scary hit-by-pitch during a game a few days ago, he's expected to return to game action today, so I don't think there's much reason to be concerned here. Walker seems like a safe bet for 30-plus homers, 180 combined runs and RBI, and even a few steals – did you realize he swiped 11 last season? Buy him here. |
| Corey Seager, SS, TEX -- Feb. ADP: 28.8; March ADP: 31.4 |
| Seager's price has remained pretty steady, despite the fact that Opening Day remains up in the air. He was cleared to begin physical activities a few weeks ago, with the hope he can return from sports hernia surgery by Opening Day, but it definitely isn't a guarantee. I think this price is fine – I drafted him 33rd overall in my Tout Wars draft – but I'm making sure I have an alternative ready for the start of the season. |
| Matt McLain, 2B, CIN -- Feb. ADP: 63.2; March ADP: 68.8 |
| McLain is making enough progress in his recovery from a lingering oblique injury that I suspect his price is going to start climbing from this point. He's hoping to make his spring debut in the next week or so, though he'll obviously have to avoid a setback as he continues to ramp up – a real concern, given that this is a similar injury to one he suffered toward the end of last season. It looks like he'll be ready for Opening Day, but I have enough questions about the underlying skill set that I'd need to see him healthy before I could take him here. |
| Josh Jung, 3B, TEX -- Feb. ADP: 119.4; March ADP: 129.8 |
| Now, Jung is one player I'm fine drafting at a discounted price due to injury. He's coming back from a calf injury and has already faced live pitching and could be cleared to play DH in spring games soon. He's not running at 100% yet, but with three weeks left until the start of the season, it feels like he's got enough time. One thing that could complicate things is if Seager isn't ready to play the field by Opening Day and Jung still isn't 100%, because then they'd both need DH opportunities – and that could spoil the Wyatt Langford coronation, too. |
| Tommy Edman, 2B, STL -- Feb. ADP: 174.2; March ADP: 189.1 |
| It increasingly appears as if Edman won't be ready for Opening Day. He's coming back from offseason surgery on his right wrist and still hasn't faced live pitching – despite the surgery happening back in October. He's ahead with his left-handed swing, and it sounds like he's been mostly doing infield drills – not a great sign for a guy expected to play primarily center field. Dylan Carlson would likely be the Cardinals primary CF if Edman is out, and it's possible his absence could open an opportunity for exciting outfield prospect Victor Scott, who stole 94 bases in the minors last season. It might be a long shot, but he's worth taking in 15-team leagues just in case. |
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