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| Thursday, February 29, 2024 |
| I love the later rounds of drafts. I spend a lot of time trying to figure out how things could go wrong as a Fantasy analyst and a player, but the late rounds are where I can just ignore that part of my brain. |
| "What if it goes wrong?" is a question you have to ask yourself when you're spending a top-100 pick, but the further you go in the draft, the more likely it becomes that something will go wrong. And there's something freeing about that, because it lets you just dream about the best-case scenarios. |
| Today, we're sticking in the late rounds, and I mean late. I've got 30 targets to consider drafting today who are being drafted outside of the top-350 picks in ADP right now. And that's actually underselling it, because only two of the 30 players I'm talking about today are even being drafted in the top 400. Which is to say, in most of your 12-team leagues, these guys might not even be drafted. |
| But if you're looking for fun ways to spend those final-round picks, this is the list for you. Because these picks are all upside. There's a fairly narrow path for any of them becoming Fantasy relevant. Many of these players may not even start the season in the majors! – but if even a few of them hit, they could play an outsized role in deciding how Fantasy championships are determined this season. |
| I'm going through every team in the majors to find the best deep sleeper on their roster today. There's some overlap with Scott White's "Most pivotal player on each team" from a few weeks ago, but we're simply looking for the best bang for the buck here. Let's go deep: |
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| The best deep sleeper from each team |
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| Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS -- ADP: 355.07 |
| Lawlar probably doesn't have a spot in the Opening Day lineup, but given Geraldo Perdomo's second-half struggles, it might not take long for him to get another shot. He has 24 homers and 38 steals in 125 games between Double-A and Triple-A and is still just 21 as of Opening Day. Don't forget about him. |
| Braves: Reynaldo Lopez, P -- ADP: 561.41 |
| Lopez has transformed himself into something of a relief ace, and the Braves are going to see if he can keep up the success while transitioning back to a starting role. Lopez has a 3.14 ERA and 1.064 ERA with 26.6% strikeout rate over the past three seasons, and should be one of your late-round targets in every H2H points league as a SPaRP. |
| Orioles: Cole Irvin, P -- ADP: 703.64 |
| Three weeks ago, I wouldn't have even considered Irvin for this exercise. But the Orioles suddenly have room for him in the rotation, and Irvin came out in his spring debut throwing harder than he ever has before – literally, his 95.9 mph fastball in that start was the hardest pitch he's ever thrown. Irvin worked at Tread Athletics this offseason to develop the new velocity, and he already had a 3.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 2022 in Oakland. Keep an eye on him this spring. |
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| Red Sox: Garrett Whitlock, P -- ADP: 494.99 |
| Whitlock hasn't been able to establish himself as a starter at the MLB level, but he's shown plenty of upside in a swing role, sporting a 3.51 ERA with a 25.7% strikeout rate over 223.1 innings. He's fighting for a rotation spot this spring, and I still think there's some upside here. |
| Cubs: Michael Busch, 3B -- ADP: 469.86 |
| I'm surprised Busch is going this late at this point. There's playing time risk even after the trade to Chicago, but we're talking about a guy who hit .323/.431/.618 in Triple-A last season and is still Scott White's No. 32 prospect entering the season. He should get drafted in nearly all leagues. |
| White Sox: Erick Fedde, P -- ADP: 481.96 |
| Here's another tip of the cap to Scott White, who had Fedde in his initial Sleepers 1.0 list. Fedde is a former first-round pick and top-100 prospect who pitched in Korea last year and totally reinvented himself, winning the KBO's equivalent of both Cy Young and MVP with a 2.00 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 209 strikeouts in 180.1 innings. He reworked his mechanics and added a sweeper and changeup that helped him to a massive 70% groundball rate. Here's another one who should be drafted in most 12-team leagues. |
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| Reds: Frankie Montas, P -- ADP: 401.08 |
| Montas has barely pitched since the summer of 2022 when he started dealing with shoulder injuries, but he got his fastball up to 97 mph in his spring debut, a good sign after he sat 93-94 in his only appearance at the end of last season. Montas is a long shot, but he was a borderline ace in 2021 and 2022 before the injuries, and he's got that SPaRP eligibility that makes him an excellent late-round target in H2H leagues. |
| Guardians: Estevan Florial, OF -- ADP: 688.7 |
| We're a long way removed from Florial's real prospect days, but he's remained productive in Triple-A, hitting .265/.358/.490 with 56 homers and 77 steals in 280 games overall, including a 25-25 season in 101 games last season. There might be too much swing-and-miss here to do that at the MLB level, but it looks like he might win the center field job for the Guardians and that power-speed combo makes him worth a look in deeper leagues. |
| Rockies: Brenton Doyle, OF -- ADP: 535.19 |
| Doyle is a Gold Glove winner at center field. He's got enough pop and speed to be a useful Fantasy option playing half his games in Coors Field if he can just manage to get his strikeout rate down below 30% – he was at 35% last season. |
| Tigers: Casey Mize, P -- ADP: 550.58 |
| Even before Tommy John surgery and then back surgery cost him basically all of the past two seasons, Mize never quite lived up to the lofty expectations of a No. 1 overall pick. But his velocity was up more than 2 mph on all of his pitches in his spring debut Tuesday, a great sign given everything he's gone through. It's a late-round lottery ticket on a once elite prospect. |
| Astros: Bryan Abreu, P -- ADP: 370.52 |
| There's a relatively limited ceiling on Abreu's value, because he probably needs injuries to both Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly to get a chance for saves. But he also has a 1.84 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 188 strikeouts over the past two seasons, and is just a useful pitcher to have around in any category-based format. |
| Royals: Hunter Renfroe, OF -- ADP: 461.51 |
| If he can just get back to his 2021 and 2022 levels, Renfroe's appeal is obvious – he had 60 homers across those two seasons with less than 600 PA in either. Renfroe can be one of the cheapest sources of power available in basically every league. |
| Angels: Nolan Schanuel, 1B -- ADP: 532.26 |
| Schanuel's a weird player. He's a first-round pick who made the majors just months after being drafted, but he's a first-base-only prospect with questionable power upside. But he has one superpower – he gets on base. He walked 106 in 110 games between college, the minors, and the majors last season, including a .402 OBP with the Angels. He's slated to hit second for them and could be a really nice source of runs if nothing else – but he's probably already a solid starter in an OBP league, too. |
| Dodgers: James Paxton, P -- ADP: 403.6 |
| How unlikely is it that Paxton stays healthy? Well, he had to restructure his deal with the Dodgers before signing it because of unspecified issues during his physical. But he also had a three-month stretch last season with a 3.34 ERA and nearly six strikeouts per start. When he's out there, he's probably going to be pretty useful. |
| Marlins: A.J. Puk, P -- ADP: 483.13 |
| Puk hasn't thrown more than 70 innings in a season since 2017, but the Marlins are going to give him a chance to crack the rotation after a strong couple seasons out of the bullpen. He added a cutter and a splitter to what was an effective two-pitch arsenal last season, and there's plenty of upside, even if I don't give this experiment a particularly high chance of working out. |
| Brewers: DL Hall, P -- ADP: 466.63 |
| Hall struck out Christian Yelich and Rhys Hoskins in consecutive at-bats in his first live reps against hitters this spring, and earned rave reviews from his new team in their first look at him. Walks have been a gigantic issue for Hall – 13.4% walk rate in his career in the minors – but he's also been a strikeout machine. Any improvement in his command could carry with it simply gigantic upside. |
| Twins: Brooks Lee, SS -- ADP: 671.12 |
| The Twins are giving Lee a chance to play some second base this spring, with perhaps a chance to crack the Opening Day roster. They probably want to see more from him at Triple-A after he hit just .237 there, but Lee is a top-60 prospect who has already reached the upper minors, so if he shows his reworked right-handed swing he could force their hand sooner rather than later. |
| Mets: Brett Baty, 3B -- ADP: 425.8 |
| Baty has big raw power and hasn't struck out an alarming amount in the minors, but he's also never hit more than 21 homers in a season because his swing just isn't optimized – he had a 50.2% groundball rate last season and didn't hit it to the pull side often enough. He may never be able fix those issues, but if he does, there's still a star-level outcome here. |
| Yankees: DJ LeMahieu, 1B, 3B -- ADP: 443.52 |
| We're a long way removed from LeMahieu's MVP candidate days, and it's probably asking too much for a bounceback at 35. On the other hand, the Yankees are pretty insistent that he's going to hit leadoff ahead of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge , and if there's any bounceback in his batting average skills, LeMahieu could probably still score 100 runs pretty easily in front of those two guys. |
| Athletics: Joe Boyle, P -- ADP: 532.48 |
| In 84 innings in the Reds organization last season, Boyle walked 19.4% of opposing batters, which is just a totally untenable number no matter how good your stuff is. In 49.1 innings with the A's after a trade, he walked 11.8%, including just five in 16 innings in an MLB cameo. The stuff is incredible – Baseball America says he has a 70-grade on his fastball and slider – and if he can just keep the walks to normal, bad levels, Boyle might actually have some pretty impressive upside. |
| Phillies: Orion Kerkering, P -- ADP: 494.84 |
| If the Phillies decide they prefer to have the left-handed Jose Alvarado available in a more flexible role, Kerkering absolutely has closer-level stuff. He has struck out 37% of hitters since turning pro, led by a slider that might legitimately be one of the best in baseball already. An electric closer candidate on a 90-win team seems like a pretty cool way to spend a last-round pick, no? |
| Pirates: Roansy Contreras, P -- ADP: 707.1 |
| Contreras' stuff has always seemed like it should lead to more strikeouts than it has, and the major problem last year was diminished velocity. He was up about 1 mph on his heater in his spring debut, which was a good start. He's mostly been very good in the minors, and now he has to figure out how to translate that to the majors. In deeper leagues, he's a decent dice roll. |
| Padres: Randy Vasquez, P -- ADP: 659.21 |
| Vasquez was the less heralded of the two prospects the Padres got for Juan Soto, and he's getting a big park upgrade out of the deal. He has struggled a bit in the upper minors since his 2021 breakout, especially with his command, but there's still a lot to like here, with a high-spin, mid-90s fastball, and a couple of good breaking balls. It might take some tweaking of the pitch mix, but Vasquez's arsenal goes six pitches deep, which is a good starting point. |
| Giants: Marco Luciano, SS -- ADP: 566.85 |
| Luciano's got a strong tool kit to build off, starting with an average exit velocity that would have ranked 14th in baseball last season. It was in a small sample, but it was also consistent with the skill set he's always shown. The problem is, he still has huge swing-and-miss issues, and hit .223 with a 31.3% strikeout rate in the minors last season. Still, the Giants are going to give him a chance to make the team this spring, and there's a Willy Adames-esque ceiling if he makes some adjustments. |
| Mariners: Mitch Haniger, OF -- ADP: 523.12 |
| It's just been a rotten couple of seasons for Haniger since his 39-homer, 100-RBI campaign in 2021. But he still had solid enough quality of contact metrics last season – 91.0 mph average exit velocity, 10.9% barrel rate – to think there's some juice left in this bat. Hopefully a return to Seattle helps his chances. |
| Cardinals: Ivan Herrera, C -- ADP: 557.96 |
| The Cardinals are surprisingly short on candidates for this exercise, so we're going with a backup catcher, albeit one who has hit .282/.416/.450 with 16 homers and 16 steals in 149 games at Triple-A. Willson Contreras will see his share of time at DH, so Herrera could potential get to, say 400 PA if everything breaks right, and he might be capable of a 10-10 season if that were to happen. |
| Rays: Jonathan Aranda, UT -- ADP: 635.36 |
| He hasn't been able to keep it up in his chances in the majors, but Aranda has put up massive numbers in the minors, hitting .328/.421/.565 at Triple-A. Getting everyday at-bats is tougher in Tampa than just about any other spot in the league, but I'd still like to see Aranda get one more opportunity to translate his minor-league dominance. |
| Rangers: Jack Leiter, P -- ADP: 729.74 |
| Leiter has fallen a long way since being the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft, sporting a 5.37 ERA across two seasons. But his velocity was up about 1.5 mph in his spring debut from his lone Triple-A start last season, so hopefully that's a sign that he's starting to rediscover some of that college form. The Rangers definitely have a need in the rotation, and there's clearly still a talented pitcher in here if he can rediscover it. |
| Blue Jays: Yariel Rodriguez, P -- ADP: 621.68 |
| The Blue Jays are going to give Rodriguez a chance to start after signing him to a four-year deal, and it's a very intriguing profile. Rodriguez worked mostly as a reliever in Japan, but put up a 3.03 ERA and 9.7 K/9 in a league where strikeouts are a lot more rare than they are in MLB. Rodriguez is a darkhorse as a start or as a potential late-inning reliever, and it wouldn't be a shock if he ended up in the mix for saves if something happened to Jordan Romano. |
| Nationals: Dylan Crews, OF -- ADP: 573.21 |
| Because Wyatt Langford was so absurdly dominant, I think Crews has gotten kind of overlooked. He didn't move quite as quickly as Langford, but Crews made it to Double-A just a few months after the Nationals made him the No. 2 pick in the draft. He probably needs some more time in the high minors than Langford, but he's a legitimate five-tool prospect who could force his way to the majors before the summer. |
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