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| Tuesday, March 11, 2025 |
| 16 days until Opening Day ... |
| One nice thing about baseball is even the worst teams will have something work getting excited about. The White Sox were historically bad last year, and yet Garrett Crochet was one of the most exciting stories of the first half; the Marlins weren't much better, but there was Xavier Edwards, hitting .328 and swiping 31 bags in just 70 games last season. |
| Team context matters in baseball, but great Fantasy players can still shine on terrible teams, in a way that isn't often true in Fantasy Football, let's say. Being on a bad team might suppress your counting stats, or limit the number of wins a pitcher can get, sure, but because baseball is a series of individual matchups masquerading as a team sport, you can still find plenty to get excited about from even the worst rosters. |
| Today, we're looking for an overlooked reason to get excited about every single team in the league, good and bad. And what's fun about this exercise – looking for Fantasy sleepers outside of the top 450 in NFBC drafts in the past two weeks – is the bad teams might actually have even more to get excited about than the good teams. The Dodgers don't really have any room for little-known names to shine; the parade of superstars in the lineup and rotation have a way of sucking all the oxygen out of the room. |
| But the Marlins and White Sox? Well, precisely because they are so bad, they actually have lots of opportunities for names to come out of nowhere. Crochet and Edwards were former top prospects who might not have even gotten the opportunity to do what they did last season on teams with more options. Their presence in their rotations and lineups wasn't necessarily the product of desperation, but a lack of more proven options gave them the runway and security to take off. |
| We're going through all 30 teams today to find the best deep sleeper on each roster, and you'll want to pay special attention to those teams you might otherwise ignore. Because that's where some of 2025's league-winning talents could emerge from. |
| Before we get there, if you missed yesterday's newsletter, that's where you'll find my thoughts on what we learned Monday will be a season-ending injury for Gerrit Cole -- and if you already drafted, you can find some replacement options here from when we first learned about the injury. |
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| The best deep sleepers on all 30 teams |
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| Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS |
| The path is less clear with Geraldo Perdomo's contract extension, but by all accounts, Lawlar still has a chance to make the Opening Day roster. It would likely be as a super-utility infielder, and he's going to see time at three different infield positions this spring. Lawlar has missed so much time over the past few years with injuries, but he remains a dynamic talent who could be a Fantasy contributor if anything happens to Perdomo, Eugenio Suarez, or Ketel Marte. |
| Atlanta Braves: Drake Baldwin, C |
| I'm actually surprised Baldwin's price hasn't risen much in the aftermath of Sean Murphy's rib injury, because it sure looks like he's got a chance to be the team's Opening Day catcher. Murphy should be back sometime in April, but the Braves have been willing to use him in close to a 50-50 split with Travis d'Arnaud in the past, so Baldwin could still have a role even when Murphy is healthy – especially if he forces the issue with his play early on. Baldwin is a top prospect who hit .276/.370/.423 between Double-A and Triple-A, and he could be a viable starting option in two-catcher leagues to open the season, at least. |
| Baltimore Orioles: Cade Povich, SP |
| With Grayson Rodriguez opening the season on the IL with an elbow injury, it sure looks like Povich should have a rotation spot to open the season. I have some concerns about his ability to miss bats consistently, but he didn't have that problem in Triple-A, sporting a 28.2% strikeout rate at the level last season. With a good defense and supporting cast around him, I'm willing to give Povich a chance to open the season. |
| Boston Red Sox: Richard Fitts, SP |
| Fitts has seen a nice bump in velocity this spring, which makes me think there might be more strikeout upside than he showed in his four-start cameo last season – something he talked about making a priority at the end of the season. Injuries have opened a path to the No. 5 spot, which he is currently competing with Quinn Priester for. There's some sleeper appeal for both of them, but I'd rather see Fitts get the chance, personally. |
| Honorable mention: Marcelo Mayer, SS -- Obviously. He seems to be behind Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony on the prospect hierarchy, but an injury to Trevor Story could open an opportunity for Mayer, who is hitting very well this spring. |
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| Chicago Cubs: Ben Brown, SP |
| Brown's curveball might be one of the best pitches in baseball, and he's going to sit in the high 90s with that fastball too. That might be enough to make him a viable option for the Cubs rotation, though I'm also hopeful he can develop his changeup enough to really take off. The talent and feel for spin here is remarkable, and he showed it can work at the MLB level last season, putting up a 3.58 ERA and 10.4 K/9 in 55.1 innings before a neck injury detailed things. I'd love to see him get an opportunity ahead of Colin Rea in the Cubs rotation. |
| Chicago White Sox: Shane Smith, RP |
| A Rule 5 pick out of the Brewers organization, Smith gives the White Sox another interesting young pitcher to keep an eye on. He had a 29.6% strikeout rate and solid control between Double-A and Triple-A last season, with a 3.05 ERA over 94.1 innings of work. There's some long-term relief risk in his profile thanks to command concern, but the stuff is impressive enough that I'm definitely rooting for him to make the rotation here. |
| Cincinnati Reds: Rhett Lowder, SP |
| Lowder had a 1.17 ERA in six starts with the Reds last season, but with iffy strikeout skills that made it look especially unsustainable. But it was the first taste of the majors for a guy who speed-ran through the upper minors just a year after being drafted. I'm hoping the stuff was playing down at the end of his longest season ever in 2024, with the potential for more upside than he showed when he's a bit fresher. He's dealing with elbow soreness this spring and won't be in the Opening Day rotation, so he's more of a watch-list guy. |
| Honorable mention: Chase Burns. The team's first-rounder in 2024, Burns is probably the better prospect, and I think there's a chance he blazes through the minors and forces the Reds to call him up sometime this summer. There's no such thing as "The Next Paul Skenes" but … Burns is definitely a name to keep in the back of your mind. |
| Cleveland Guardians: Triston McKenzie, SP |
| The results have been mixed, but the stuff might look better than ever this spring, with McKenzie sitting around 94 mph with his four-seamer. McKenzie was a must-start pitcher back in 2022, and if he's healthy and can sustain these velocity gains, he could get back there backed by a good supporting cast in Cleveland. |
| Honorable mention: Kyle Manzardo, DH -- After hitting 37 homers in 177 games at Triple-A, Manzardo doesn't have anything left to prove down here. Now, it's all about proving he can do it consistently in the majors. We saw flashes of it down the stretch last year when he hit .270/.333/.540 in September, and he's going to be a big part of the Guardians' plans to replace Josh Naylor 's production, albeit mostly as a DH. |
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| Colorado Rockies: Zac Veen, OF |
| Veen has cooled off a bit after a red-hot start to the spring, but he still has a chance to force his way onto the Rockies roster. He's a former top-100 prospect who has struggled with injuries and whiffs in recent years, but there are still some impact tools here with both speed and power, and Coors Field could help inflate the batting average enough to make him a useful Roto option. |
| Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize, SP |
| Mize's velocity is up yet again this spring, and he keeps searching for the right breaking ball to bring the arsenal together – he's working on three different slider looks this spring. The former top pitching prospect in the entire league, Mize is off to a great start this spring and has a chance to put it all together. I'm definitely looking into him with one of my last picks in most drafts the rest of the way. |
| Houston Astros: Cam Smith, 3B |
| The primary prospect return in the Kyle Tucker trade, Smith has a chance to break camp with the Astros after fewer than 40 games in the minors. Christian Walker's injury could determine whether Smith ultimately gets the call, but the thing to keep an eye on over the next weeks is whether they get him any reps at right field in games. Right field is clearly the biggest position of need for the Astros, and if he can hack it there, it could be his path to immediate playing time. |
| Kansas City Royals: MJ Melendez, OF |
| The tools have always been there for Melendez, who has been in at least the 80th percentile in average exit velocity in each of his three MLB seasons. The problem has been consistency and contact, and he revamped his swing this offseason with the hopes of solving those problems. He's still striking out plenty this spring, but he's also been very productive, so we'll see if that work ends up paying off. The raw power for 30-plus homers is here if he can cut the swing and miss out. |
| Los Angeles Angels: Christian Moore, 2B |
| The Angels might be more aggressive than any team in the league when it comes to promoting their top prospects, and Moore was already at Double-A just a few months after they made him the No. 8 pick in last year's draft. He hasn't torn the cover off the ball this spring, but MLB.com noted Monday he could be part of the team's 2B plan if Luis Rengifo 's hamstring injury keeps him out to open the season. There's rare power for a second baseman here if he gets the chance. |
| Los Angeles Dodgers: Dalton Rushing, C |
| Given Will Smith's presence, it's been tough to figure out what Rushing's path to Fantasy relevance actually looks like. The Dodgers have given him time at first base and in the corner outfield, but Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, and Michael Conforto won't cede a ton of playing time there, either. But there's very little doubt Rushing will hit, and there could be enough time across four positions to make him relevant for Fantasy – the bar is awfully low at catcher. Especially if Smith and Freeman need additional time off in-season as they manage ankle issues from last season. |
| Miami Marlins: Agustin Ramirez, C |
| I had hoped either Max Meyer or Ryan Weathers would qualify, but their strong showings this spring have pushed their prices too high. So we'll go with one of the team's top prospects, a catcher who was the centerpiece of the Jazz Chisholm trade last summer. Ramirez hit .267/.358/.487 with 25 homers and, notably, 22 steals across 126 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season. I get the feeling the Marlins would prefer Ramirez start the season in Triple-A, but Nick Fortes and Liam Hicks shouldn't be any kind of roadblock if Ramirez proves he is ready. He has top-10 potential at the position, and could especially be a difference maker in Roto if the speed is real. |
| Honorable mention: Deyvison De Los Santos, 1B -- The Marlins have already sent De Los Santos down to minor-league camp, so he won't break camp with the team. They'll cycle through Quad-A types like Matt Mervis, Kyle Stowers, and Jonah Bride to start the season, but we should see De Los Santos before too long. He hit 40 homers with a .294/.343/.571 line as a 21-year-old across Double-A and Triple-A last season, and could be a Jake Burger clone if things work out right. |
| Milwaukee Brewers: Caleb Durbin, 3B |
| Durbin was getting, frankly, irresponsible levels of hype from some in the Fantasy Baseball community earlier this offseason, but that doesn't seem to have gone anywhere. He's an interesting player, a 5-foot-7 speedster with a lift-and-pull approach to hitting that generated 10 homers in 90 games last season despite pretty limited raw power. This type of prospect tends to get the bat knocked out of their hands by MLB-caliber pitching, and he's struggled this spring, making his chances of breaking camp with the club look pretty slim. But if he does, his speed makes him a perfect fit for an aggressive Brewers club, and there could be some mild five-category appeal. |
| Honorable mention: Abner Uribe -- The Brewers have plenty of late-inning options even after trading Devin Williams – keep an eye on Craig Yoho , who has been striking out everyone this spring – but I'll just remind you that everyone was very excited about Uribe this time last year, and there's still impact upside in the late innings if he gets a chance. |
| Minnesota Twins: Zebby Matthews, SP |
| Matthews' ankle injury in his most recent start hurt his chances of breaking camp with the big league club, but he's definitely a name to watch after seeing a velocity jump this spring. He has elite command – 2.7% walk rate in the minors – but probably lived in the zone too much in his nine MLB starts, leading to a massive 6.69 ERA. You can mitigate that by throwing out of the zone more to try to generate whiffs, or you can mitigate it with better stuff – which is why the velo jump is interesting here. |
| New York Mets: Jeff McNeil, 2B/OF |
| McNeil tried a weird trick last season as he was mired in the middle of a slump that threatened to cost him serious playing time on a contender: He just started swinging harder! He hit .289/.376/.547 in the second half, and while I don't think he's suddenly a power hitter or anything, it was a sign that there is more life left in McNeil's bat than you might think. As a cheap source of batting average in Roto leagues, you won't find many better options. |
| Honorable mention: Brandon Sproat, SP -- It looked like Sproat might force his way to the majors last season before he finally hit a rough patch at Triple-A. The stuff looks awesome, and with the Mets' pitching depth already tested by injuries to Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea, he could be a few good starts at Triple-A from getting the call. |
| New York Yankees: Ben Rice, 1B |
| Rice is less interesting having lost his catcher eligibility, but with Giancarlo Stanton (elbows) out for at least the start of the season, he still has a path to pretty consistent playing time. It didn't work out for him last season – he bopped a few homers, but hit just .171 in his 50 MLB games – but his pull-oriented swing from the left side should still make him a 20-plus homer threat in Yankee Stadium. As a CI in deeper leagues, there's some appeal here. |
| Oakland Athletics: Jacob Wilson, SS |
| Wilson is one potential better option for batting average in the later rounds than McNeil. He hit just .250 in 28 MLB games last season, but still struck out just 9.7% of the time – after he put up Ted Williams-esque numbers in his minor-league stint last season. There are at least plus hit tool abilities, and he creates more damage with his contact than someone like Nick Madrigal did. It's still not guaranteed to work out thanks to his below-average raw power, but he should be able to clear the .100 ISO marker that looked like a cliff to Madrigal. There could be a Luis Arraez-esque ceiling here. |
| Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew Painter, SP |
| Painter isn't going to be in the majors until the summer at the earliest, but the Phillies just don't have many options for this exercise, so he'll have to do – even long-shot closer candidate Orion Kerkiering is going inside the top 400, one of 15 Phillies in that range. Painter might be the most talented pitcher in the world who hasn't made his MLB debut, and I'm including Roki Sasaki in that discussion – I'll take Sasaki, but it's close – and he could be a must-start pitcher as soon as he makes his debut. |
| Pittsburgh Pirates: Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B |
| The Pirates are also short on viable candidates for this exercise, though I will note I considered Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis, and Nick Yorke before settling on Hayes, a long-time favorite of mine. Hayes' skill set completely collapsed last season, but at his best, he combines plus contact skills and plus raw power, with flashes of putting that power into action in games. Hayes has dealt with recurring lower back injuries over the past two seasons, but if he's healthy, I still think there could be 15-15 upside with a good batting average here. |
| San Diego Padres: Tirso Ornelas, OF |
| Ornelas is still fighting for a corner outfield spot on the Padres roster, and he's doing everything he can this spring, hitting .370/.469/.630 with just two strikeouts in 12 games entering play Monday. He hit 23 homers with a .297 average in Triple-A last season and could be a factor if the Connor Joe/Jason Heyward experiment goes sideways. |
| San Francisco Giants: Camilo Doval, RP |
| Ryan Walker is going to open the season as the Giants closer, but one reason I'm less bullish than most on Walker as a breakout candidate is because Doval is still there, looming. He struggled badly last season en route to losing the job to Walker, but Doval was an All-Star who led the NL in saves in 2023, and if he can get back to that level, Walker might not have nearly as much job security as you'd prefer. We saw it didn't take much for Doval to lose his job last season, so a couple of poor outings in a row for Walker could put Doval right back into the closing mix. And we know he's talented enough to run away with that job. |
| Seattle Mariners: J.P. Crawford, SS |
| The Mariners are a tough team to do this exercise for, so I'll go with a veteran bounceback candidate. Crawford followed up his best season with his first in 2024, so this one is mostly a low-cost bet on Crawford getting back to being a standout in OBP and runs. He still walked plenty last season, and while he isn't slated to hit leadoff to open 2024, he could get back there if Victor Robles struggles. The upside isn't terribly high here, but Crawford could certainly be a viable middle infielder in the right circumstances. |
| St. Louis Cardinals: Victor Scott, OF |
| The Cardinals never stopped producing interesting talents; they just haven't been very good at finishing them off. Scott looked like a potential difference-maker entering last season, but he fell flat on his face both in his MLB stints and at Triple-A, where he hit just .210/.294/.303. Maybe his slap-and-dash skill set got exposed in the high minors, but I remain intrigued by his speed and contact skills and will be adding him anywhere I can in Roto leagues if it looks like he has a shot at the MLB roster. |
| Tampa Bay Rays: Curtis Mead, 2B |
| Mead's numbers through eight spring games are hilarious: .714/.750/.905. It's amazing what 20 pounds of muscle can do for you. Mead is a career .292/.371/.499 hitter at Triple-A, so now it's time for the Rays to let the 24-year-old see what he can do in the majors with consistent playing time. It's always tough to earn an everyday job as a lefty in Tampa, but with what he's doing this spring, they may have no choice. |
| Honorable mention: Chandler Simpson, OF -- "What if we put Luis Arraez 's hit tool into the fastest player in professional baseball?" Simpson is trying to prove he can be the answer to that question coming off a season where he hit .355 with a minuscule 8.5% walk rate while stealing 104 bases in 110 games – that's not a typo, I swear, I double-checked. Again, this type of profile tends to struggle against higher-level pitching, but Simpson might be the kind of outlier who can make it work. |
| Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, SP |
| Leiter was a disaster at the MLB level, but he showed some real promise at Triple-A before that, sporting a 3.51 ERA and 33.3% strikeout rate. He's throwing harder this spring, has added a sinker and a changeup, and is pitching quite well so far. Probably not well enough to make the rotation without an injury, but it's an open question whether he or Kumar Rocker would get the first opportunity when one inevitably arises, and Leiter is a lot cheaper. |
| Toronto Blue Jays: Alan Roden, OF |
| Roden is generating some hype this spring after hitting .293/.391/.475 across the high minors last season. There probably isn't a significant ceiling here, but he could be playing his way into serious playing time with a good approach at the plate (12.1% walk rate, 14.2% strikeout rate) and 15-15 potential. |
| Washington Nationals: Michael Soroka, SP |
| I've written a bunch about Soroka this spring, and while I still think he's primarily an H2H points option, there's potentially some upside here for deeper categories leagues. He showed real upside in a multi-inning relief role last season after switching to a four-seamer/slider focus, and now he's throwing harder this spring. If he can sustain that, Soroka might be a legitimate option in 2025. |
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