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The AI Story Will Roll On in Trump’s Second Term

History often repeats itself, but the AI story is now too consequential to take a backseat again as Trump returns to the White House

There was a moment not long ago when artificial intelligence was showing significant progress. Mentions of the technology were booming during earnings calls. And chatbots seemed like they could be the next big platform. Then, a polarizing leader won a crucial election. And interest in the technology fizzled.

I’m talking, of course, about 2016, when AI technology was rising just as Donald Trump’s surprise victory took hold of the media’s attention. As the tech press turned its focus to Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube’s vulnerabilities, coverage of AI dissipated. Progress, meanwhile, continued in the background, and the technology reasserted itself in November 2022 with ChatGPT’s debut.

Today, the AI story is simply too big, and too consequential, to take a backseat to politics again. It’s not just the billions of dollars spent, and the technology’s impressive progress, that will keep it relevant. It’s the proximity of AI’s top backers — including Elon Musk and his xAI — to the President-elect. Now, AI’s story is interlinked with Trump’s.

Trump said little about AI on the campaign trail, but that will change after he takes office in January 2025. He’ll inherit a stock market propelled by tech, and a tech industry propelled by AI. On the day of Trump’s victory, NVIDIA became the world’s most valuable company again, passing Apple amid a historic surge catalyzed by generative AI. Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and NVIDIA have all jumped to outsized valuations due to their AI offerings. And Trump will have to take that into consideration as he implements his agenda.

Open source AI, for instance, could be one of the first big issues on the table. Trump sees China as an adversary, yet China is one of the key beneficiaries of the U.S. open source AI movement. Models like Meta’s Llama have been crucial for startups and enterprises building AI applications in the U.S., enabling more customization than off the shelf models (they also help NVIDIA sell more chips). But researchers in China have used Llama to build potential military applications, a concerning development for U.S. officials. By taking action against open source AI, Trump could harm Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg (who he deeply dislikes) and China in one motion. But such a move could have unintended consequences.

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Consider that Elon Musk, one of Trump’s most important allies, could also be hurt by open source AI regulation. His xAI company, currently raising at a $40 billion valuation, open sourced its Grok-1 model in March. And Musk’s commitment to open source AI runs deep. He founded OpenAI with Sam Altman in an attempt to safely introduce artificial intelligence to the world. Musk’s hated OpenAI’s trajectory in recent years though, and said “OpenAI is a lie” after the company prioritized commercialization over its original open source mission. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, meanwhile, has been a leading voice on proper AI safeguards and regulation. His relationship with the White House will be a fascinating storyline given the mutual antipathy between him and Musk.

Trump’s implementation of his promised tariffs will also likely take AI into account. On Wednesday, the day after the election, the S&P 500 surged 2.5%, but Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) dropped nearly 3%. The reverse trajectories were likely due to concern that tariffs, and a possible a trade war, could negatively impact U.S. access to the all-important component. TSMC bounced back on Thursday, foreshadowing the volatility that could ensue if Trump enacts his protectionist agenda.

Beyond AI’s connections to the government, and its importance as a matter of policy, the story will roll on because it’s just that important. Generative AI is just starting to deliver results in forward-thinking corporations worldwide. The consumer products are catching on too. But OpenAI is still on track to lose $5 billion this year, just one example of how leading AI research houses are burning through money as they scramble to fend off competitors. The race to deliver results before the money runs out will be a critical business story in the coming years.

With Trump ready to take office again, history will not repeat itself. At least as far as AI is concerned. And at least not here. While Big Technology coverage will take the new President into account, the AI story — as it resonates for Big Tech, and our society — will remain in focus. There will be plenty to report on, and plenty to say. Stay tuned.

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What Else I’m Reading, Etc.

Nate Silver has a 2024 election post-mortem [Silver Bulletin]

Trump played the podcast circuit to his advantage [New York Times]

Demography is not destiny, it turns out [Semafor]

Why Biden’s team thinks Harris won [The Atlantic]

A Democrat on why the Democrats lost [Very Serious]

Stocks reacted positively to Trump’s win [WSJ]

Washington Post employees told to return to the office five days a week [New York Times]

This is unconfirmed, but North Korean soldiers may be watching lots of porn in Ukraine [Politico]

Winners and losers from Trump’s election [Big Technology]

Vultr offers global access to the latest NVIDIA GPU technology, allowing enterprises to power AI & ML from 32 locations worldwide without the complexity or cost of hyperscalers. [Vultr] (sponsor)

Number of The Week

14%

Increase in support Trump received from Hispanic voters in the 2024 election compared to 2020. He also jumped 7% among voters 18-29, per Reuters.

Quote of The Week

No.

Fed chair Jerome Powell’s response to whether he’s step down if Trump asks for his resignation.

This Week on Big Technology Podcast: Trump Wins. What's Next for Tech and The Economy? — With Dan Primack and Ana Swanson

Aidan Gomez is the co-author of the "Attention Is All You Need" paper that launched the AI revolution and CEO of Cohere, an enterprise AI company. Gomez joins Big Technology to discuss the myths, facts, and realities of today's AI landscape. Tune in to hear why the real value of AI isn't in flashy consumer apps but in automating crucial back-office processes that could save businesses billions. We also cover the truth about AI capabilities, the likelihood of AGI, synthetic data training, and whether an intelligence explosion is possible. Hit play for a refreshingly grounded discussion about where AI is actually making an impact, from one of the field's pioneering voices.

You can listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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My book Always Day One digs into the tech giants’ inner workings, focusing on automation and culture. I’d be thrilled if you’d give it a read. You can find it here.

Questions? News tips? Email me by responding to this email, or by writing [email protected] Or find me on Signal at 516-695-8680

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