Another day, another Washington Post-ABC News poll that finds that the presidential race is tied. That's the popular vote. But as Al Gore knows well, presidential races are won and lost by the electoral vote. Fix Boss Chris Cillizza fiddled with our super neat electoral map tool to figure out whether Donald Trump could win that all-important vote. His answer? Yes, but … Here are some options to a possible-but-not-easy Trump victory: Option 1: If Trump wins ALL the states Mitt Romney won in 2012, PLUS Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio and New Hampshire, he can get past the 270 mark. But Trump is down almost 5 points in New Hampshire and 2.5 in Colorado. Option 2: If Trump wins all the states Romney won minus North Carolina, he would need to win 7 others to make up for it: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin. Even though The Fix recently moved Florida into the toss-up column, this is a tough path for Trump, given Hillary Clinton is up almost six points in Wisconsin. Option 3: A tie! It's not the likeliest scenario, but shuffle some states around, and it could happen. In the event of a tie, Congress would be the tie breaker (each state gets a single vote), and given that there are more Republicans than Democrats in Congress, they would almost certainly hand the election to Trump. So, this election could be over in 7 days ... or never. A phrase you should know: Tracking polls What is it: Basically a poll done every night. Pollsters call a random sampling of Americans every evening and ask them questions, like who they're going to vote for. Then they release the past few days' results. Why it's different than regular polls: Regular polls are not done every.single.night. They're in the field for a few days, then done. One of our polling gurus, Emily Guskin What tracking polls are good for: Spotting trends, like voters moving away or toward one candidate. The Washington Post-ABC News pollsters start using tracking polls as we get closer to Nov. 8 to try to spot those trends. Because fewer poll results mean more electoral uncertainty. What the tracking polls are saying now: Funny you should ask; that's my next topic of discussion. Your weekly philosophy lesson Our tracking poll released Wednesday shows that voters think Trump is more honest and trustworthy than Clinton — by 8 points! (Source: Post-ABC tracking polls Oct. 30-31, margin of error +/- 4 points) On the surface, that makes zero sense. Of the 91 Trump statements that Washington Post's Fact checking team has, well, fact checked, they have given 63 percent the Four Pinocchio rating (false as false can be). (For comparison; 14.2 percent of Clinton's claims have been given Four Pinocchios.) Here's the philosophy lesson, via Cillizza: |