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| | Tariff-Proof Electronics Leader Powers Growth in a Mixed Market | | Littelfuse (NASDAQ: LFUS), a leader in circuit protection and power semiconductors, delivered a strong Q1 2025, with revenue up 4% year-over-year to $554 million, beating guidance. | Despite a mixed demand environment, its diversified portfolio and electrification focus position it to outshine peers like TE Connectivity (NYSE: TEL). | Trading at around $180, LFUS is 38% below its $295 fair value, offering 62% upside. | |
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| | | Strategic Positioning and Competitive Edge | The semiconductor manufacturer’s edge stems from switching costs in mission-critical applications like electric vehicles (EVs), data centers, and industrial systems. Its fuses and relays, vital for safety, are designed into products for 5-10+ year lifecycles, deterring customer switches due to redesign costs and risks. | Q1 saw robust electronics segment recovery and industrial segment growth, fueled by data centers and grid storage. Secular trends in EV adoption (5x circuit protection content vs. internal combustion) and renewable energy bolster its 7% CAGR forecast through 2029. | The company’s 2018 IXYS acquisition enhances cross-selling in semiconductors, while a Mexico-based manufacturing footprint mitigates tariff risks, with only 5% of sales from U.S.-China imports. | Action: Start a position in LFUS to leverage its electrification-driven growth. Check the April 30, 2025, Q1 earnings call replay at Littelfuse.com for insights on data center and EV bookings. |
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| | | | Financial Outlook and Valuation | Littelfuse’s Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.19 surpassed estimates by 24%, with $43 million in free cash flow (98% conversion). A debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.1x and $730 million in cash support acquisitions and a $2.80 annual dividend. | Revenue guidance for Q2 2025 ($565-$595 million) and full-year 2% growth reflect resilience despite automotive and consumer electronics softness. At a 2025 P/E of 34x and EV/sales of 3x, LFUS is undervalued versus TEL (40x P/E). A $295 fair value assumes 7% revenue CAGR and 20% midcycle margins by 2029, implying 62% upside. | Action: Increase LFUS exposure on pullbacks below $190, targeting $295 by late 2025. Watch Q2 guidance updates for tariff and forex impacts. |
| | Dividend Profile | Furthermore, Littelfuse’s quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share, or $2.80 annually, yields 1.5% at current prices. With 15 years of consecutive increases and a 36% payout ratio, the dividend is secure, backed by $350 million in projected annual free cash flow. | Q1 2025 returned $45 million to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, balancing growth investments. | Action: Use dividends to reinvest in LFUS shares, enhancing long-term returns. Monitor free cash flow trends in 2025 filings for dividend growth signals. |
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| Bear Case | Soft semiconductor and automotive demand could persist, capping revenue growth. Overpaying for acquisitions to meet 5-7% inorganic growth targets risks margin compression. | Tariff escalations, despite minimal U.S.-China exposure, could raise costs if pricing adjustments falter. Cyclicality in electronics distribution may lead to inventory destocking, as seen in 2024’s 10% revenue drop. | Action: Pair LFUS with diversified industrials ETFs to offset cyclical risks. |
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| Outlook and Price Target | Littelfuse’s sticky customer relationships, electrification tailwinds, and operational flexibility position it for sustained growth. Q1’s outperformance and Q2’s upbeat guidance, aided by a weaker dollar, signal resilience. At ~$182, LFUS is a value-meets-growth play with strong upside as EV and data center demand recovers. | Action: Build LFUS holdings below $190, aiming for $295 by late 2026. Track semiconductor and automotive demand indicators in 2025 reports to validate the rebound thesis. |
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| That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email. | Best Regards, | — Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club |
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