SVB > NFP = Supermassive Bond Rally

SVB > NFP = Supermassive Bond Rally In a matter of 48 hours, Silicon Valley Bank has gone from being a company that we've never heard about or discussed to the highest profile bank failure since the Great Financial Crisis. Such developments sound like they should be good for bonds and today was no exception. The news certainly overshadowed today's jobs report although traders also looked willing to take that in stride (higher headline job creation offset by lower wage growth and higher unemployment). The net effect was the largest rally in 4 months and one of the 5 biggest rallies of the past decade--at least for Treasuries. MBS underperformed for reasons discussed in today's video. Econ Data / EventsNonfarm Payrolls311 vs 205 f'cast, 504 prev Wages0.2 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.3 prev Unemployment Rate3.6 vs 3.4 f'cast, 3.4 prev Participation rate +0.1 Market Movement Recap08:53 AM Big overnight rally, additional gains after NFP, but giving up those gains now. 10yr still down 9bps at 3.816. MBS up only an eighth, but there's roughly a quarter point separating buyers and sellers (i.e. MBS would be up more if the market were more liquid). 10:03 AM Additional gains after NYSE open. Best levels of the day with 10yr down almost 20bps at 3.712. MBS up at least half a point, but it's a moving target until liquidity improves. 11:38 AM Giving up some of the gains now. 10yr up 9bps from lows but still down 14.5bps on the day at 3.764. MBS up 3/8ths of a point. 03:12 PM Fairly sideways all afternoon. 10yr hovering near lows, down 21.2bps at 3.695. MBS up only half a point.

March 10, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary SVB > NFP = Supermassive Bond Rally SVB > NFP = Supermassive Bond Rally In a matter of 48 hours, Silicon Valley Bank has gone from being a company that we've never heard about or discussed to the highest profile bank failure since the Great ... (read more) Rob Chrisman Crypto Escrow, Technology, Non-Warrantable Condo Products; Investor Updates, Mergers and Employment News Julie C. writes, “Did you know that every “c” in “Pacific Ocean” is pronounced differently?” As I head to Northern California, which borders the Pacific, this morning, I recalled this thought: “Sometimes you meet someone and you know from the first m... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.76% -0.24% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.76% -0.24 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.25% -0.20 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.25% -0.25 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.35% -0.12 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.61% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.25% -0.27 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 3/10 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.25% -0.20% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.73% +0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.95% +0.06 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 3/9 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.79% +0.08 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 6.25% +0.12 1.01 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.49% +0.05 0.59 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 3/8 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.70 +0.22 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.70 +0.22 UMBS 6.0 100.97 -0.12 GNMA 5.5 100.02 -0.27 GNMA 6.0 100.72 -0.48 Pricing as of: 3/10 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.6970 -0.2101 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.593 -0.277 5 YR Treasury 3.972 -0.218 7 YR Treasury 3.866 -0.202 10 YR Treasury 3.697 -0.210 30 YR Treasury 3.704 -0.153 Pricing as of: 3/10 5:31PM EST Latest Video Silicon Valley Bank closed today Treasury monitoring developments from Silicon Valley Bank fallout 'very car... Silicon Valley Bank faces 'classic run on a bank', says Lazard's Peter Orsz... U.S. economy adds 311,000 jobs in February as growth stays hot Around the Web CNBC Silicon Valley investors and founders express shock at sudden collapse of SVB cnbc Silicon Valley Bank is shut down by regulators, FDIC to protect insured deposits CNBC Luxury home sales plunge 45%, with Miami and the Hamptons hit hardest CNBC Here's where the jobs are for February 2023 in one chart Eye on Housing Households Real Estate Asset Value Falls for First Time Since 2012 CNBC Payrolls rose 311,000 in February, more than expected, as jobs growth stays hot Calculated Risk Blog February Employment Report: 311 thousand Jobs, 3.6% Unemployment Rate Calculated Risk Blog Comments on February Employment Report CNBC Silicon Valley Bank Financial in talks to sell itself after attempts to raise capital have failed, sources say CNBC Just like that: Market pricing swings back to quarter-point Fed rate hike CNBC Treasury yields tumble as investors await key jobs data CNBC Wage growth is cooling but workers still have bargaining power, economists say CNBC European bank stock sink as Silicon Valley Bank contagion spreads

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