| Good morning Voornaam, The quality of management at a company makes a big difference. These are the people entrusted with managing your investment as a shareholder and their decisions can have a lasting impact. It's unfortunately also true that even if you throw an Olympic swimmer into a river filled with crocodiles, there's probably going to be a bad outcome.
Super Group may have a proud history, but it finds itself deep in crocodile alley. They are being hurt severely by the disruption in the automotive sector. Not only are the Chinese here in force, but the UK government seems hell-bent on destroying any hope of recovery for the traditional automotive brands in that market. In addition to these exposures, Super Group also has to deal with the upstream impact of local port delays and what this does to supply chains. The share price may be up 5% in the past year, but that's thanks to the disposal in Australia and the large special dividend that is expected to be paid. What will be left after that dividend?
Over at Sasol, the market had to stomach more bad news. Production guidance has gone the wrong way in some areas of the business and the chemicals sector remains difficult. Sasol is down 46% in the past 12 months.
It's not all bad, of course. Cashbuild is grinding away at its recovery story, with the share price up 21% in the past year and another quarter of sales growth now under their belts. It was on my watchlist last year and then the market delivered an absolute gift in August 2024 with a strange sell-off that I took advantage of, so my percentage gain is much higher. The JSE really is a stock-picker's market. Isn't that why you're reading this in the first place?
To get these insights and more in the Nibbles, read Ghost Bites>>>
You have just over one week left to apply for equity funding from MIC Khulisani Ventures if you are a qualifying Black-Owned business. After we released a podcast with full details at the end of 2024, the team has summarised the opportunity in a new article that includes a link to the podcast for those who missed it. Don't delay!
The latest Magic Markets episode that will give you helpful insights into the banking sector and how banks make money. We also talked about many of the tough decisions they need to make around capital allocation and balance sheet management. With our usual approach of combining a macro lens with bottom-up analysis, we explain why you can bank on banking - albeit with a preference for the US rather than the local market. Enjoy the podcast and transcript here>>>
Have a great day and we will see you on Sunday for Ghost Mail Weekender. |
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| SATRIX: Low-risk high-reward - the low-volatility anomaly |
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| | | Does taking higher risk always lead to higher returns? Or is there something to be said for seeking out lower volatility equity exposure, especially if it can generate similar overall returns?
Nico Katzke of Satrix digs into the numbers to bring you this insightful piece on portfolio and risk strategy.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| Ghost Wrap - five insights from December |
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| | | Ghost Wrap: There were some great stories in December that are well worth keeping in mind in January. Italtile's share price needs a careful watch. Prosus is making major acquisitions again. Renergen is still dealing with teething issues - and a legal dispute as well. Metair is getting very little out of its Turkish business. Finally, will Bell Equipment shareholders kick themselves? I cover these topics in Ghost Wrap, brought to you by Forvis Mazars and available here>>> |
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| MIC KHULISANI VENTURES - A game-changer for Black-Owned businesses in South Africa |
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| MIC Khulisani Ventures is looking for Black-Owned business with high scalability and a commitment to growth. Equity funding is available and applications close at the end of January 2025. Get the details here>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | Super Group needs all the help it can get and frankly so does Sasol, although at least the latter's problems are cyclical rather than structural. Cashbuild is still grinding out a recovery. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - The wisdom of the meatball |
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| The best salesperson in Swedish business IKEA’s history isn’t Sven or Astrid or even Nils - it’s the meatball! Since 1985, flatpack-furniture giant IKEA has sold more than a billion of its trademark Swedish meatballs every year. But how did a furniture company come to rely on meatballs to sell couches? The answer lies in consumer psychology. Dominique Olivier explains>>> |
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| Unlock the Stock - KAL Group |
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| | | Unlock the Stock: KAL Group joined the platform for the first time to talk about the performance and strategic focus areas in the broader agriculture industry. Enjoy the presentation and Q&A here>>> |
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| MAGAnomics: Trump and the global economy |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| Boeing's share price is down nearly 17% in the past year. I actually expected to see a more severe drop, but you do need to view this in the context of a US equity market that has been on a rocket to the moon. The relative underperformance of Boeing is staggering. Then again, the company hasn't posted a profit for several years and continues to deal with huge impairments, so that outcome is understandable. Boeing incinerated billions of dollars in the latest quarter, with little sign of things improving.
I mentioned earlier in the week that Electronic Arts is struggling with life-after-FIFA, as the football game lost its key branding and seems to be suffering as a result. The share price has tanked more than 16% this week and is now down 14% in the past year. Perhaps the most incredible thing about this is that you would only be slightly worse off in Boeing over 12 months than in Electronic Arts!
The markets are crazy things. We try and make them easier through our research in Magic Markets Premium. This week we covered JPMorgan, the banking GOAT that is a core part of my portfolio. If you're ready to give your US market knowledge a proper boost, then subscribe today with no minimum monthly commitment. It's worth it. |
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| Magic Markets: The year ahead - buckle up! |
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| | | Magic Markets: In this episode, we start off with some of the key macroeconomic indicators that investors and traders use to assess the health of the retail industry. We then go into the process of a typical turnaround, along with the milestones that are usually seen. Get the podcast and transcript here>>> |
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| Chinese equity benchmarks are trading notably firmer this morning on the softer-than-expected trade tariff narrative from US president Donald Trump. The move in these Asian benchmarks provides some follow-through from a positive close in US equity markets and is suggestive of a positive start for our local bourse the JSE All-Share Index.
European index futures are mostly positive this morning, as is Japan’s Nikkei index which has gained despite the Bank of Japan raising benchmark lending rates.
The dollar has continued to soften in risk-on trade, lending itself to gains in the rand which is now at its strongest levels in a month.
Gold has moved closer to its all-time highs supported by the softer dollar.
Oil prices continue to weaken on the suggestion of increased production of the commodity under the Trump administration.
Traders will keep an eye out today for a slew of manufacturing and services PMI data being released from Europe and the US.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.40/$ | US 10yr 4.63% | Gold $2,775/oz | Platinum $953/oz | Brent Crude $77.65
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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