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| Thursday, November 12, 2020 |
| I'm not sure how it happened, but the Super Bowl is less than three months away. Normally, I don't talk about things that are more than three days into the future -- the reason for that is because it's 2020 and who knows if civilization is even going to exist three days from now, let alone three months -- but we'll be talking about the Super Bowl today and that's because the NFL has announced the halftime show. |
| The choice? Grammy-winning Canadian singer The Weeknd. My personal vote was for the Backstreet Boys and although that didn't happen, I am excited to see what The Weeknd has to offer with a track record of singles such as "Blinding Lights," "Can't Feel My Face" and "Starboy." |
| Of course, the Super Bowl won't be the only thing we're talking about today, I'll also give you a preview of the Colts vs. Titans game. The fact that the Titans are playing tonight means they're going to become just the THIRD team since 1950 to play on four different days of the week during the season (They already played on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, and will now be adding a Thursday game). The Titans could end up setting the record for most days of the week played on in a single regular season if they get flexed to Saturday in Week 15. |
| We'll also be covering... you know what, I'm going to stop talking about what we're about to talk about and just get to today's newsletter. Let's do this. As always, if you want to share this newsletter with everyone you know, I will not be offended. Just just click here to grab the link and then send that link to everyone on your email list. |
| 1. Today's Show: DFS advice for Week 10 |
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| Although he would never admit it, I can tell by his voice that by the time Thursday rolls around, Will Brinson is missing me and Ryan Wilson. With Wilson and I off the podcast until Friday, Brinson spent the Thursday pod talking about the best daily fantasy plays for Week 10 with fantasy gurus Heath Cummings and Frank Stampfl. The trio went over all the best fantasy options for the 12 games that are being played on Sunday in Week 10. |
| During the podcast, the three guys offered their best value plays for the week, so let's take a quick look at those (These are guys you can purchase for $4,000 or less). |
| Brinson: Rams WR Josh Reynolds ($3,500). Jared Goff has been paying a lot more attention to Reynolds over the past three weeks. In the Rams past three games Reynolds has 21 targets, 141 yards and two touchdowns, and this week, he gets to go up against the Seahawks, who have the worst secondary in the NFL. Stampfl: Dolphins WR Jakeem Grant ($3,000). With Preston Williams now on injured reserve, Tua is going to need someone to throw the ball to and Grant seems like a sneak good bet. Cummings: Packers RB Jamaal Williams ($4,000). The Packers are expected to win big on Sunday against the Jaguars and if there's a blowout, you can bet Aaron Jones won't be on the field for long (The Packers DO NOT want to see Jones get re-injured). If Jones heads to the bench, Jamaal Williams will be the biggest benefactor. |
| To listen to today's episode -- and subscribe to the podcast -- be sure to click here. |
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| 2. Getting you ready for Colts-Titans in Nashville |
| The AFC South has turned into a two-horse race -- I think the other two horses were taken behind the shed and put of their misery -- and that race should soon come into focus with the Colts and Titans scheduled to play each other two times over the next three weeks (Week 10 and Week 12). The fun starts tonight in Nashville in a game that is now down to a pick'em at the sports books after opening on Sunday with the Titans as a 2.5-point favorite. |
| My good buddy Jared Dubin put our deep-dive preview together here at CBSSports.com, and here's how he sees the game playing out: |
| Although Philip Rivers struggled on Sunday against Baltimore, don't be surprised if he has a big game against the Titans: Tennessee struggles to stop the deep ball, they haven't been able to get pressure on the quarterback and No. 1 receivers have been having a field day against them. For the Titans, Ryan Tannehill has been kind of streaky over the past three weeks, which means this game is likely going to come down to the play of Derrick Henry. The problem for the Titans is that the Colts have the third-best rush defense in the NFL, surrendering just 83.6 yards per game. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Dubin by clicking here. |
| If you're thinking betting on the game, Tyler Sullivan put together a full gambling preview. |
ONE PROP TYLER LIKES: Henry over 20.5 rushing attempts (-115): "When you have a back that is so important to the offense, it'd almost qualify as malpractice if you didn't hand him the ball 20-plus times. Henry has gone over this total in five of his eight games this season." ONE PROP I LIKE: Rodrigo Blankenship over 6.5 total kicking points (-125): Blankenship has gone over 6.5 points in six of the Indy's eight games this season and he's been nearly perfect on field goals, hitting 17 of 19 for the year. Rodrigo has never let me down before and I don't think he'll let me down here. After this bet hits, I'm 100% going to use the winnings to buy a pair of rec specs so I can match Rodrigo's pair.
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| You can check out Sullivan's full gambling preview by clicking here. |
| My pick: Colts 23-20 over Titans. |
| 3. NFL Week 10 picks |
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| In case you haven't noticed, we love to make picks here at CBS Sports. As a matter of fact, I even love to make picks about who's going to have the best picks each week. Two guys who almost always do a good job with their picks are Tom Fornelli and Jordan Dajani. Dajani is currently 75-52-3 against the spread on the season, and Fornelli writes our CBS Sports HQ PM edition newsletter, which you can subscribe to here for all-sports gambling info. |
| With that in mind, let's check out one pick from each guy for Week 10: |
| Dajani: Seahawks (+1.5) at Rams. "The Seahawks defense is a serious question mark, one that has everyone wondering if they are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Bills racked up 420 yards of total offense on the Seahawks last week, but I still have faith in Seattle because of its offense." Dajani's pick: Seahawks 31-24 over Rams. Fornelli: Texans at Browns (-3). "With Nick Chubb and starting guard Wyatt Teller likely back, and Cleveland facing a porous Houston rush defense (28th in DVOA, 23rd in success rate), the Browns offense should have a strong game on Sunday." Fornelli's pick: Browns win and cover. |
| For a look at Fornelli's three "Best Bets" for Week 10, be sure to click here. If you're looking for the rest of Dajani's Week 10 picks -- he picks every game -- be sure to click here. |
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| 4. Super Bowl odds |
| So we know who is playing at the Super Bowl: The Weeknd. He'll be the halftime performer, as we already discussed. But who's going to win the Super Bowl? Glad you asked. The oddsmakers in Vegas have been crunching some numbers and after nine weeks, they're convinced the Kansas City Chiefs are going to repeat as champions. Heading into Week 10, the Chiefs have the best Super Bowl odds of any team in the NFL. |
| With that in mind, let's check out the teams that currently have the best odds, via William Hill SportsBook: |
| Chiefs +350 (Bet $100 to win $350 if the Chiefs win it all) Steelers +550 Saints +700 Buccaneers +900 Ravens +900 Packers +1000 Seahawks +1000 Bills +1800 Rams +2500 Titans +2500 Colts +3000 |
| Worst odds: Jets +250000 (Bet $100 to win $250,000) |
| My first piece of advice here is don't bet on the Jets. |
| As for the other 31 teams, if I had to bet money right now, I'd put it on the Chiefs. I don't care that they have the worst value because I'd rather get bad value and win money than throw my money away on betting a team like the Seahawks (The Seahawks have the worst defense in the NFL and the team with the worst defense has never come close to winning the Super Bowl). |
| On the other hand, you might not want to listen to me. Although I've won money betting on the Super Bowl winner in two of the past five years with Denver (Super Bowl 50) and Kansas City (Super Bowl LIV), the Cowboys were my preseason pick this year. Call me crazy, but I'm starting to feel like that pick isn't going to pan out. On the other hand, they are only 1.5 gams out of first place AND their odds are +20000, which means a $1 bet would win $200. I think I can afford to bet $1 on them. |
5. Jackson not thrilled with Ravens' playcalling
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| If you've been watching the Ravens this year, you may have noticed that their offense isn't as good as it was last year. During the 2019 season, the Ravens led the NFL points scored (31.4) and finished second in total yards (407.6). This year, they're ranked eighth in points scored (28.4) and 23rd in total yards (347). |
| So what's the problem in Baltimore? Apparently, they're too predictable. At least that's Lamar Jackson's theory. The Ravens quarterback was asked about Baltimore's offensive issues during an interview with Rich Eisen this week. |
| "They're calling out our plays, stuff like that," Jackson told Eisen. "They know what we're doing. Sometimes stuff won't go our way if they're beating us to the punch." |
| Jackson also added that defenders are yelling out Baltimore's plays. |
| "Yeah, they definitely do," Jackson said. "Like, 'run' and stuff like that. 'Watch out for this, watch out for that.' Sometimes that's what's going on." |
| Um, so remember those Super Bowl odds we were just talking about? I'm definitely not putting any money on Baltimore. |
| If I'm the Ravens, I'm definitely concerned by these comments. On one hand, it almost feels like Jackson is throwing offensive coordinator Greg Roman under the bus, in the most polite way possible. He clearly feels that the offense should be as successful as it was last year, but the coaching staff isn't putting the Ravens in a position to succeed because the play-calling is too predictable. It sounds like he wants some more creativity out of Roman. That being said, it's also possible that Roman has streamlined the playbook and scrapped a few things because Jackson hasn't played as well as he did last year, so you could argue that both guys are at fault here. |
| Also, this could all be much adieu about nothing. Maybe teams are predicting what the Ravens are going to do because they are predictable. The Ravens are one of just three teams in the NFL -- along with the Vikings and Browns -- who have run the ball more than they've passed it this year. The Ravens have run the ball on 55.2% of their plays, which is the most in the NFL (The Vikings are second at 52.9%). Since Jackson has struggled to throw the ball this year, it seems that teams are gearing up to stop the run against Baltimore and so far, the Ravens haven't figured out how to get things turned around. |
| 6. Brady and Ben race to break a bad record |
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| During the Saints-Buccaneers game on Sunday night, it felt like Tom Brady got sacked on every other play. After doing some digging, it turns out that wasn't the case, though. Brady only got sacked three times in Tampa Bay's 38-3 loss. |
| Brady is now tied with Ben Roethlisberger as the active quarterback who has taken the most sacks and in a race that no one wants to win: to become the most sacked quarterback in NFL history. Here's a list of the top-five most sacked quarterbacks in NFL history: |
1. Brett Favre: 525 times sacked
2. John Elway: 516
T-3. Tom Brady: 513
T-3. Ben Roethlisberger: 513
5. Dave Krieg: 494 |
| Looking at that list, it make you wonder how Brady has lasted this long. I now also understand why Roethlsberger is always banged up. The man entered the NFL four years AFTER Brady and he's been sacked as many times as the former Patriots quarterback. Of course, it might not matter who sets the record, because I'm pretty sure Russell Wilson is going to break it. Wilson has already been sacked 371 times in just 8.5 seasons. If Wilson plays just 15 years, which is completely possible -- Brady is in his 21st and Big Ben is in his 17th -- he's on pace to take 654 sacks. |
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| 7. The Kicker! |
| With Tennessee playing on national television tonight, that means the rest of America will get to experience the emotional roller coaster ride that every Titans fan goes through any time the team attempts a field goal. Through nine weeks, Stephen Gostkowski is hitting just 61.1% of his kicks, which is the lowest percentage in the NFL. |
| To add some drama to the kicking situation tonight, the Titans will be throwing a new holder (Ryan Allen) and a new long snapper (Matt Overton) into the equation. Both guys played in their first game of the season for the Titans in Week 9 and although things went smoothly, the Titans haven't gotten two good games in a row from their kicking game all season, so there's a 50% chance we're going to see a total meltdown on "Thursday Night Football." |
| If there is a meltdown, I will probably react by having a meltdown myself on Twitter, and you can feel free to follow along by clicking here. Finally, happy Birthday to my nephew Simon, who is somehow turning 13. See you guys Friday! |
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