| One quick note before we begin: the fact that Sunak said that his government should be judged on his five pledges doesn’t mean we should accept his framing. Here, for example, are five other measures: has he made any progress on reducing regional inequality? Are greenhouse gas emissions reducing in line with the UK’s net zero targets? Is the UK building more affordable housing? Are energy prices under control? Has the government started to reform the creaking social care system? This is a selective list – but the point is, so are the pledges. Nonetheless, they are the criteria by which the prime minister has sought to be judged, and he succeeded in placing them at the centre of the political debate. Here’s how he’s doing. Pledge: Halve inflation from 10.7% by the end of 2023 When Sunak made his speech, inflation was already forecast to meet this target. At various points in the year, though, it looked touch and go: by October, inflation remained at 6.7%, largely because of soaring fuel costs. But it has since dropped to 3.9%. So the target has been met, barring an unlikely spike when the last 2023 figures are released in two weeks. What did Sunak have to do with it? Not much, says Nils Pratley, the Guardian’s financial editor. “The job of fighting inflation belongs primarily to the Bank of England. International energy prices – no longer rising – also played a big role.” It’s also important to remember that a declining inflation rate means that prices are going up more slowly, not coming down. With wage growth slowing, that has not yet translated to a big dividend for voters. This year, “expect the rate to fall even closer to the Bank’s target of 2%”, Nils adds. “Despite the central bank’s cautious warnings about the potential stickiness of inflation, financial markets currently expect Threadneedle Street to have room to cut interest rates from 5.25% to 4% during the course of 2024. That is useful for a governing party in an election year. It does not mean, however, that voters will forget the two-year squeeze on living standards.” Verdict: success (though not necessarily Sunak’s) Pledge: Grow the economy This is a modest target: 0.1% gross domestic product (GDP) growth each year would be enough to meet it, and that is not an outcome most economists would view as a success story. In the event, while final figures are not available until February, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan both say that they expect 0.5% growth over the whole year. But GDP fell by 0.1% in the third quarter and may have done so again between October and December, which would mean the UK is in recession. In 2024, says economics correspondent Richard Partington, “Sunak is facing the prospect of a fairly bleak year for economic growth. The Bank of England has warned that Britain has a 50-50 chance of a recession this year, while the government’s own independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, isn’t much more optimistic: it’s forecasting growth of just 0.7% for 2024 as a whole, less than half the average rate recorded in the years running up to the 2008 financial crisis.” Verdict: technical success against a low bar Pledge: Get national debt falling So far, and despite Rishi Sunak’s repeated claims to the contrary, this hasn’t happened. Debt stood at 88% of GDP in November, compared with 85% at the end of 2022. So how did Sunak justify his claims? Downing Street says they are based on a promise that net debt will be falling as a proportion of GDP by the final year of the five-year forecast, in 2027-28. Senior economics commentator Aditya Chakrabortty is unimpressed, and has a helpful image to explain. “Analysis of public sector net debt can be a tad heavy for the first week of January, so let me clothe this question in something rather more seasonal,” he writes. “If someone told you they were truly, definitely going to lose a tonne of weight in a year and they’d do it all in the party month of December, you might well do a massive chinny reckon (or whatever it is the young people do to signify doubt these days). But that is pretty much how Rishi Sunak plans to meet this pledge. “On the state’s own forecasts, debt will keep on going up until April 2028. But relax! Sunak and Jeremy Hunt will truly, definitely start getting it down then, by making spending cuts so sharp that hardly anyone believes they will happen. As a strategy, it makes your mate’s diet plan look positively plausible.” Verdict: Failing Pledge: Bring NHS waiting lists down Not happening: the waiting list has gone from 7.2m when Sunak made his speech to 7.7m in October, the most recent figures available. “Sunak has sought to blame ongoing industrial action for his failure to cut waiting lists,” writes health editor Andrew Gregory. “Some of the public may sympathise with that argument. However, analysis by the Health Foundation, an independent thinktank, shows that strikes by doctors had so far lengthened the waiting list by about 210,000.” Even without that 210,000, the number would still be going up. The same analysis predicted that the number of patients on waiting lists could hit 8 million by this summer, and “the prospect of the waiting list dipping below 7.2 million before the next election looks increasingly unlikely”, Andrew says. “Expect Sunak to squirm and pivot with bold new claims of progress. “His go-to at the moment? A focus on 18-month waits. They are down by about 90% since their peak in September 2021, which is not to be sniffed at. The prime minister knows he can’t hide from the big numbers, though. And the fact they have gone up, not down, since he promised to reduce them is all that matters.” Verdict: Failing Pledge: ‘Stop the boats’ | 