| | | | Monday, January 25, 2021 | | And there you have it: Buccaneers vs. Chiefs for the Super Bowl in Tampa in two weeks. The Chiefs felt, like Thanos, inevitable, but the Bucs and Tom Brady had a few rough patches this season that made their path less obvious. However, here we are, at the end of another season, with Brady playing for the Super Bowl. Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same. | | Of course, there's plenty of time to talk about the Chiefs and Buccaneers, how they match up, what this game means for their respective legacies, and yadda, yadda, yadda over the next two weeks, so today I'm going to focus on the two losing teams. The Packers and Bills came up just short, ultimately, but neither team really could have asked for much more than this result before the season. | | That won't make the disappointment sting any less, of course, and now both are left with plenty of questions heading into their offseasons. The stakes are a bit lower for the Bills than the Packers, but the ramifications for both on the Fantasy landscape will obviously be significant. I'll take a look at the biggest questions for each heading into the offseason, but first: Reports surfaced this weekend indicating the Lions and Matthew Stafford have mutually agreed to part ways, meaning another high-level quarterback will be moving on this offseason. Here are the three spots I'd most like to see him end up with this offseason, with an eye on both his Fantasy appeal and that of the players already on the roster: | | | | Stafford's Top Landing Spots | | | | 1. Denver | | It's not clear if the Broncos are actively looking for an upgrade at quarterback, but they probably should be. This is an offense that's ready to take off, with a talented core built around Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Noah Fant, with multiple talented running backs. Lock may develop into the quarterback the Broncos need him to be, but I'm pretty skeptical -- he finished 27th in touchdown rate, 33rd in interception rate, and 27th in yards per attempt in 2020. Stafford would immediately make this one of the most interesting offenses in football, and would make Sutton, Jeudy, and Fant all viable starters for 2021 -- Fant would be an easy top-five tight end for me. With room for all three to breakout. Stafford might even be a top-12 QB here. It's close to the ideal fit, much like Tampa was this time a year ago. | | 2. San Francisco | | San Francisco's need is a little less pressing than Denver's, but they were rumored to be interested in Tom Brady last offseason and Garoppolo carries just a $2.8 million dead cap hit for 2021, so they could be ready to make an upgrade. Garoppolo is fine, but he's probably been propped up by the 49ers system, so it's fun to imagine what a better quarterback could do here. Kyle Shanahan designs a consistently efficient offense -- the 49ers were 11th in yards per attempt despite Garoppolo missing 10 games -- but with Stafford, they could open up the offense more down the field. The 49ers quarterbacks' average pass traveled just 6.6 yards down the field in 2020; Stafford's was 8.7 yards despite injuries and limited weapons. Armed with elite playmakers with the ball in their hands like George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk, Stafford could turn this into an elite passing offense for Fantasy. | | 3. New Orleans | | With Drew Brees retiring, it's unclear how the Saints will move forward. They've given indications they view both Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston as possible options, but Winston is a free agent himself, while Hill might still be viewed as a bit of a stretch as a full-time starter. I would be perfectly happy with either Hill or Winston as the starting QB here from a Fantasy perspective, but the Saints may (rightly) view Stafford as a better bet for their chances of winning. Stafford's primary options have typically been more downfield oriented than Michael Thomas has been in his career, but I also think Stafford could open some things up for Thomas, too. And he's been more than happy to dump the ball off to running backs. The only reason the Saints aren't higher on this list is they haven't had much room for anyone but Thomas or Alvin Kamara to thrive in recent years, and it's not clear if Tre'Quan Smith or Deonte Harris are ready to step into a big enough role to become Fantasy relevant. | | | | Bills: Three Biggest Offseason Questions | | | | Josh Allen's leap into the upper echelon of quarterbacks in 2020 raised the Bills' ceiling a lot higher and a lot faster than I ever thought could happen. They aren't a team in need of a major overhaul, which makes their offseason an easy one: | | What does Josh Allen do for an encore? | | What an incredible season. It may not have ended the way he wanted, but 2020 was pretty much a dream season for Allen, who lived up to the loftiest hopes anyone might have had for him. Allen is going to be the guy NFL teams point to when they are trying to figure out whether to give up on a young, flawed quarterback in the future, but it's worth pointing out just how much Allen improved this season. He went from a 6.7 yards per attempt in 2019 to 7.9 in 2020 and from 4.3% touchdown rate to 6.5%, a stunning improvement, and unlike with guys like Jared Goff or Mitchell Trubisky making early-career leaps, his didn't come with a new coaching staff to fuel him. Allen got a true No. 1 WR in Stefon Diggs, but otherwise, this was the same situation he was in last season. He had at least an average passer rating in each depth, highlighting the gains Allen has made as a passer overall, even while he's relied on shorter passes each season. There might be some regression in Allen's future, but that's not to say he faked it. He made legitimate gains, and should be one of the elite quarterbacks in Fantasy in 2021. | | Do they bring in another RB? | | Devin Singletary found himself losing snaps to T.J. Yeldon Sunday after struggling in the passing game, and it's fair to wonder if Buffalo is satisfied with their running backs. Singletary and Zack Moss both have shown flashes in different aspects of the game, but neither has the look of a reliable three-down option. Being a pass-first offense, Buffalo may not care much about that, but if you're looking for one place they may decide to upgrade the offense, that's the one. Of course, with Allen's dominance near the goal-line and their limited utilization of running backs in the passing game, it's probably best to avoid this backfield no matter who is there. | | Do they bring back all of their WRs? | | The receiving corps was one of the real strengths of this team, but the Bills do have the sixth highest-paid wide receiver group in the NFL, and both John Brown and Cole Beasley are in their 30s and could be moved with limited cap repercussions. They may opt not to do that, but Gabriel Davis flashed some solid skills as a rookie and could probably handle a bigger role. He would probably fit more easily into Brown's role, who also has just one year left on his deal and would free up more cap space, so maybe that's the path they'll choose. This offense can support three Fantasy relevant wide receivers, and if Davis gets a chance, I'll have him on my sleepers list. | | | | Packers: Three Biggest Offseason Questions | | | | This season went better than nearly anyone expected, but ended in bitter disappointment that promises to re-open some of the questions we had from last offseason. | | Can they keep Aaron Rodgers happy? | | Rodgers admitted he "wasn't thrilled" with the Packers' decision to draft Jordan Love in the first round last year, and he responded with one of the best seasons of his career, one that seems likely to culminate in an MVP award, if not a Super Bowl win. Rodgers is under contract for three more years, and the Packers can't realistically move on from him until at least next offseason, not that they would want to. However, if Rodgers sees the writing on the wall that Love is the future, does he opt to force the issue? That seems unlikely right now, but hey, Tom Brady just made it to the Super Bowl with the Buccaneers, so let's not dismiss the possibility entirely. Either way, let's hope the Packers manage to get more from their first three picks this year than a third-string QB and RB. Getting Rodgers more help would probably keep him happy. | | Do they re-sign Aaron Jones and/or Jamaal Williams? | | Both are free agents, and how the Packers opt to approach them will have major implications for Fantasy. Jones has thrived as the lead back for the Packers, putting up big numbers despite seeing fewer touches than we would perhaps like. Williams, meanwhile, has proven he can be a viable Fantasy option if he gets the chance in Green Bay -- he had 216 yards and a touchdown plus 10 catches in consecutive games starting for Jones in Weeks 7 and 8. Meanwhile, A.J. Dillon rushed for 124 yards and two touchdowns in his only game with a significant role this season, so we'd sure like to see him get an opportunity. With Jones leaving Sunday's game with a chest injury, Dillon still split work with Williams, ultimately only rushing for 17 yards on three carries. If Jones is back, he'll be a No. 1 Fantasy RB or something close; if Williams returns and Jones doesn't, both he and Dillon could be No. 2 Fantasy RBs; if both walk, Dillon could be a star in this offense. | | Do they add another WR? | | Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard were actually both fine this season, but neither is super well-rounded receiver, which leaves Davante Adams and Rodgers to do much of the heavy lifting. It's not as apparent a need as everyone seemed to think before the season, but it'd still be nice for Rodgers to have another option he can trust. It just may not be a priority. | | | | | | | | |
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