| | | | Thursday, April 10, 2025 | | I'm gonna be honest: I don't know what to make of Kevin Gausman right now. | | I want to believe that he's back to being an ace after a season where he was clearly pitching at less than 100% health due to a shoulder issue. And he sure looked like that on Wednesday, as he limited the Red Sox to just one unearned run on four hits over eight innings with 10 strikeouts. That's to quality starts in his first three tries, and he only came up two outs short in the other start, with his ERA now down to 2.33 for the season. For a guy with a long track record of ace-level production, shouldn't it be pretty easy to buy into this strong start? | | It's not easy at all, actually, dear reader! The version of Gausman we have seen this season just doesn't look very much like the best versions of Gausman we've seen in the past. | | When Gausman was an ace, he did so largely on the strength of his splitter. It wasn't his only pitch, obviously, but it was far and away his best pitch – in 2023, for example, Gausman's four-seamer was pretty good, with a .307 wOBA allowed, but his splitter had a remarkable .255 mark against. And most of his whiffs came with that splitter, too – in that same 2023 season, Gausman's splitter generated 261 whiffs, compared to 136 for the four-seamer and 41 for his slider. | | | | Gausman lost his feel for the splitter a bit last season, and that gap shrank as a result. He still had 137 whiffs with his four-seamer in 2024, but his splitter generated just 159, a 39% drop. And he struggled, posting his highest ERA since 2019 and his lowest strikeout rate since 2018. That pitch wasn't just his bread and butter – it was the whole meal. | | And Gausman's splitter … still isn't back! He had four whiffs with it on 19 swings Wednesday, which actually improved his whiff rate with the pitch to 13.5% for the season. It's still generating plenty of weak contact, but it isn't the same pitch that used to define his arsenal. | | How did he find so much success Wednesday, then? He generated 13 of his 17 swinging strikes in the game on his four-seamer, which is the third-most he's ever had with his four-seamer. And it's not necessarily a fluke – his velocity was down a bit Wednesday, but it has been up prior to this, and he's generated a lot more rise on the pitch, which is what you're looking for if a fastball is going to miss a lot of bats. | | But I just don't have much faith in Wednesday being repeatable for Gausman. At the risk of oversimplifying, my skepticism mostly comes down to this: We've simply never seen a version of Gausman who has been consistently good without racking up a ton of whiffs with his splitter. His fastball looks legitimately better right now than it used to, but I just don't buy that this is going to be a sustainable approach for him. | | Maybe I'll be wrong, but I'm using this start as an exit ramp from the Kevin Gausman experience in 2025. I think he can still be somewhat useful, like he was last season, maybe, but I don't think we're going to see a return to Fantasy ace status for Gausman. And if someone wants to value him that way based on Wednesday's start and his superficially low ERA, take advantage. | | Here's what else you need to know from Wednesday's action around MLB: | | | | Thursday's top waiver-wire targets | | | | Kyren Paris hit two more homers Wednesday night, and neither was actually his hardest hit ball of the night – that one was a 108.1 mph lineout that actually had a .680 expected batting average. That's not a bad day out at the ballpark, and it pushes Paris' season line to .440/.533/1.120, with five homers in 10 games. All this from a guy who had a .378 OPS in 36 career MLB games entering this season and who hit .167/.254/.278 in the minors last season and has a pretty mediocre .757 OPS in his minor-league career. | | It's probably just a fluke, the kind of random hot streak we see every year from players you'll soon forget about – remember Rece Hinds hitting five homers in his first six career games last summer? Professional baseball players are capable of these kinds of runs, even ones who aren't actually good MLB hitters. | | And yet, I can't bring myself to just ignore this. Paris completely reworked his swing last offseason, and the early returns have been tremendous, as he also hit .400 this spring. And he has decent athleticism, so his bat doesn't have to do all of the heavy lifting for Paris to be Fantasy-relevant. I wrote about Paris yesterday, and nothing has changed about what I wrote: Believing he can be a viable major-league hitter requires a leap of faith, but I can't just rule it out at this point. He's up to 52% rostered, and at least in category-based leagues, I'm fine continuing to add him. Just in case. | | | | Here's who else we're looking to add coming out of Wednesday's action: | | Max Meyer, SP, Marlins (61%) – Meyer's velocity was down in this one, which could be the result of the temperature – I went to this game and can confirm it was uncomfortably cold for a baseball game, though probably worse up in the cheap seats where I was sitting. But it didn't really matter for Meyer, who took a no-hitter into the sixth inning and ended up allowing just two hits and two walks in 6.1 innings of work. The Marlins were cautious with him, pulling him after 82 pitches, and the bullpen held on to get him the win. It wasn't the most dominant showing we've seen from Meyer so far this season, but it continues the very strong start from the former top prospect, who now has a 2.00 ERA and 19 strikeouts to five walks in his first 18 innings of work. His slider looks better than ever, his fastball is playing a lot better than it did last season – especially when he averaged 95-plus, which I'm hoping he can get back to – and he has a more well-rounded arsenal in general after adding a sweeper, refining his changeup, and introducing a sinker. The team context will hold Meyer's value back a bit, but I think he's shown enough to be universally rostered at this point. | | Noelvi Marte, 3B, Reds (14%) – I only mentioned Marte's promotion in passing in Wednesday's FBT Newsletter, because I don't really expect him to play much. The Reds seem to have soured on him organizationally after a lost 2024 season that saw him suspended for PEDs and then struggle in both the minors and majors. He came off the bench in Wednesday's game behind Santiago Espinal, which seems to confirm that the Reds don't have Marte in their plans with Matt McLain on the IL. But here's the thing: They probably just need to give him a chance at this point. This Reds offense was miserable with McLain, and now it looks like a one-man shoe, and Elly De La Cruz isn't doing much with his main billing right now. I'm skeptical Marte will do much to change that, but at least he brings theoretical upside to the table. You can't say that about Espinal. | | Quinn Priester, SP, Brewers (5%) – The Brewers' total desperation for pitching help pushed them to acquire Priester, and they paid a pretty hefty price for the right, so I expect him to be in the rotation for the long haul. He'll make his team debut Thursday in Colorado, and while I want no part of him in that situation, there's some upside here – Priester had a very strong 19.9% K-BB% rate in Triple-A and was throwing harder in Spring Training before the Red Sox optioned him to Triple-A. In deeper leagues, I don't mind adding Priester just to see if he can turn into something. | | Zebby Matthews, SP, Twins (26%) – Let's go with another speculative add. Matthews is another guy who has shown some upside in the minors and then had a velocity jump this spring, and he's off to a big start at Triple-A, with 13 strikeouts to one run in his first 10 innings of work. To be clear, there's no sign that the Twins are calling him up, but with Pablo Lopez dealing with a mild right hamstring strain, they may need someone to pitch at least this weekend. It's worth noting that this could also potentially be an opportunity for David Festa, but Matthews looks like the better bet right now if Lopez misses time. | | Tony Gonsolin, SP, Dodgers (15%) – Oh, what the heck, let's do one more totally speculative target. Gonsolin is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and looks like he's not far off at this point despite a back injury this spring. Gonsolin made his second start at Triple-A Wednesday and looked exactly like a major-league caliber pitcher should, allowing just one unearned run on one hit while striking out seven over 3.1 innings of work. The Dodgers probably want to get Gonsolin a bit more stretched out – he threw just 46 pitches in this one – but with Justin Wrobleski and Landon Knack stumbling in spot starts this week and Blake Snell on the IL, they may not have the luxury to keep Gonsolin out much longer. Remember, he had a 2.14 ERA in 2022, backed up by a 3.12 xERA, so if he can get back to that level, he could certainly be very useful for Fantasy. | | Wednesday's standouts | | Max Fried, Yankees @DET: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 K – This time of year is so funny because we can use the weather to excuse just about anything. Pitcher struggled? It was cold! Offense faltered? It was cold! If you're inclined to not give Fried the benefit of the doubt, that's surely the perspective you'll take, but I think he's an ace, and this is just what aces do. Even aces with relatively low strikeout rates like Fried. | | Shota Imanaga, Cubs vs. TEX: 5 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Even after this start, Imanaga still has a 2.70 ERA through his first four starts, so we can't exactly say this is a "slow" start. But it's been a disappointing one as Imanaga has yet to have a start with more strikeouts than innings pitched, after striking out 174 in 173.1 innings last season. His velocity is mostly fine and he got 15 whiffs in this one, so I don't know if there's actually anything to be worried about, however. There might even be a mild buy-low opportunity here. | | Joe Ryan, Twins @KC: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K – Ryan clawed a bit more velocity back in this one, sitting at 93.1 mph, up from 92.5 mph entering the start and just 0.9 mph down from where he was last season. That's the trend we want to see, even more so than the very good surface-level numbers, which he also backed up with 10 swinging strikes on 85 pitches. Ryan's strikeout rate is down a bit from last season, but not so much that it's worth panicking over, especially with the velocity rebounding a bit. | | Jack Flaherty, Tigers vs. NYY: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9 K – Flaherty's probably been a bit lucky to have an ERA as low as it is right now, but he doesn't look significantly different than he did last season. He's still generating tons of whiffs on his slider and curveball (seven and five, respectively, Wednesday) and his fastball velocity isn't far from where it was last season, a promising sign given the weather (see, there, I did it, too!). He hasn't quite locked in yet, but he's been pretty good for not quite locking in. | | Hunter Brown, Astros @SEA: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – Brown's newfound high-90s velocity wasn't really there for him today, and it didn't really matter. The three strikeouts are disappointing, but the 13 swinging strikes on 98 pitches paint a more promising picture. He remains extremely locked in after last season's breakout, and I'm starting to think he might just need to be a top-30 SP. I'm not there yet, but I'm not sure I have a good argument against it, either. | | Yusei Kikuchi, Angels @TB: 6 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – Kikuchi has lowered his arm slot dramatically this season, going from an average arm angle of 42 degrees last season to just 33 degrees in the early going here. That could be a sign of injury, or it could be a conscious decision, and I don't think either would be a good sign. He's still following a similar template with his pitch mix from his post-trade breakout with the Astros, featuring his slider and four-seamer most prominently, but the whole package just hasn't been as effective as it was last season. He's getting less horizontal break on his slider and his fastball velocity is down 1.2 mph from last season, too, and there just isn't a ton to get excited about with him right now. | | Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks vs. BAL: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – This isn't a bad start, obviously, but it's so unexciting. Pfaadt did manage to kitchen-sink his way to a decent 10 whiffs, but he probably got lucky that he didn't give up more damage to this lineup – the Orioles were just 2 for 9 on batted balls hit over 95 mph. Pfaadt will occasionally flash big strikeout upside, and I don't necessarily think he's someone you should be dropping. But he also isn't someone I'm excited to have on my team, either. | | Mitch Keller, Pirates vs. STL: 7.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – There was basically no offense in this game, as Keller did that thing he'll do every once in a while and put together a strong start. He has two of them so far, sandwiched around a seven-run showing in his previous outing. That's kind of the Mitch Keller experience in a nutshell right there. He'll be good more often than he's bad, but the bad starts can be absolutely crushing. He's fine. | | Justin Verlander, Giants vs. CIN: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 9 K – Despite the final line, this was probably the most promising outing we've seen from Verlander in a long time. His fastball velocity was up to 95.2 mph on average, and he generated a whopping 20 swinging strikes on his 90 pitches, with 11 coming on his slider. He did a decent job limiting quality contact (just one batted ball with an expected batting average over .400), which is the one skill that has mostly remained intact for Verlander even late into his career. He's up to a 26% strikeout rate through three starts, and his 3.99 FIP and 3.68 xFIP suggest he could still be useful. | | Tylor Megill, Mets vs. MIA: 4 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – Megill's first eight pitches were balls, so this line could have been a lot worse. It was frustrating that you didn't get even close to a quality start against such a good matchup, but at least you get the strikeouts and zero earned runs. Megill hasn't finished six innings in any of his first three starts, but he also hasn't pitched poorly so far. I don't think it would take much for him to string together multiple quality starts in a row, and I don't mind using him for what looks like a two-start week against the Twins and Cardinals next week. | | Grant Holmes, Braves vs. PHI: 4 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 6 K – Holmes has a couple of really good secondary pitches, and his slider was especially working well Wednesday, generating nine swinging strikes on 25 pitches total. But he's now gone just four innings in each of his first two starts of the season, and his command has just looked plain bad in both. Despite pretty good velocity on his four-seamer, I'm just not sure that pitch is good enough for him to get through a lineup multiple times, and I'm pretty pessimistic about his chances of making this transition to a starting role as smooth as we want. | | Dean Kremer, Orioles @ARI: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Weird start from Kremer, who managed to get eight strikeouts with just four swinging strikes. And then there were, you know, the three homers and 10 hard-hit balls he allowed. Kremer is 42% rostered in CBS Fantasy leagues, and that just feels way too high for a guy who is probably an average pitcher at best and no longer has a huge home-field advantage. | | Osvaldo Bido, Athletics vs. SD: 5 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – Bido has gotten some attention as a viable streamer early this season, but I'm gonna be honest, I really don't see much worth getting excited about here. He picked on two good matchups early on, and then was lucky not to give up more than two runs on Wednesday, given the nine hits allowed. He might have some appeal as a streamer against the right matchups, but I think that's all Bido is, despite the solid results so far. | | News and notes | | Wyatt Langford was placed on the IL due to a right oblique strain. Apparently, he wasn't in too much pain when he arrived at the ballpark Wednesday, so hopefully, this ends up being a pretty short-term absence, but obliques tend to be tricky. | | This one came out of nowhere: Justin Steele went on the IL with left elbow tendinitis. He dealt with the same injury back in September, which is worrisome. With that said, Steele believes he'll only be out the minimum 15 days. I'm certainly not dropping him, but my expectations for Steele the rest of the way are lowered due to this recurring injury. | | Pablo Lopez is going on the IL with a Grade 1 hamstring strain. The hope is it's a minimum stay. | | Fernando Tatis was out of the lineup Wednesday with that left shoulder injury. Mike Schildt said he's optimistic for a Friday return. | | Freddie Freeman will be activated Friday when first eligible. | | Ketel Marte will miss a "series of weeks" with a left hamstring strain, with Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo adding: "There's no timeline on it. We just gotta let him heal, let him recover and once we get to that point, we'll start to initiate some baseball activities." So, he's gonna miss some time. Probably a few weeks, and I wouldn't be surprised if this stretched into May, given Marte's tricky history with hamstrings. | | Spencer Arrighetti will not require surgery to repair his fractured right thumb. He'll be in a cast for 2-3 weeks before getting more imaging done. | | Jordan Westburg was out of the lineup due to an upper-body injury. Brandon Hyde described the injury as a nagging issue that caused Westburg to also sit back on March 30. | | Jake Cronenworth was out of the lineup due to cramping on the right side of his ribs. | | Lane Thomas was out of the lineup with a bruised right wrist. | | Tyler Soderstrom was back in the lineup after dealing with a right calf contusion Tuesday night. | | Luis Gil is scheduled to begin a throwing program within the next several days. He's on the IL with a high-grade lat strain and is probably still out until June. | | Clarke Schmidt will make his final rehab start Thursday. If that goes well, he should rejoin the Yankees after that. | | The Dodgers optioned Justin Wrobleski after his rough start Tuesday night. | | | | | | | | 2025 Masters Tournament | | Golazo Network | Stream live coverage of the 2025 Masters Tournament with On The Range, Amen Corner, Featured Groups and Holes 15 & 16 all week long!
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