| | | | Thursday, September 12, 2024 | | It seems as if the only thing that can slow Bowden Francis down right now is ninth-inning, no-hit bids. For the second time in four starts, Francis took a no-hitter into the ninth inning Wednesday, and for the second time, a leadoff homer ended his bid, this time off the bat of Francisco Lindor to spark a late Mets comeback win. | | Still, like I said, that's just about the only sign of struggle we've gotten from Francis lately, as he remains absolutely scorching hot. After Wednesday's start. He has allowed just eight earned runs over his past seven starts, a stretch that includes 46 strikeouts in 48 innings of work after this one. The strikeouts weren't there Wednesday, but I want to make one thing clear: It wasn't luck that had him flirting with a no-hitter. | | Of the 24 balls in play Francis allowed Wednesday, just three had an expected batting average of .500 or better, and only seven even had an xBA over .200. That's a pretty bonkers amount of weak contact, and it came despite Francis' fastball velocity being down nearly 2.5 mph. | | | | He generated a ton of weak grounders and pop-ups, as he continues to miss the barrel of the bat at an elite level. In the minors, that was always the primary issue for Francis, but the addition of his splitter seems to have left hitters either below or above the ball on their swings. | | Is this sustainable? Well, no, of course, a 1.31 ERA isn't sustainable. That goes without saying. But I don't think there's any way I could consider benching Francis at this point. | | The tougher question is what this stretch means for Francis' 2025 value. He's a 28-year-old without much of a prospect pedigree and a pretty limited track record of success before the past month or so. Generally speaking, that's a profile you want to bet against in the long run. Of course, that's all dependent on price, right? Seth Lugo isn't a player I'm super interested in betting on long-term, but he was a terrific bet with an ADP of 268.2 in 2024 drafts, and we're seeing that pay off with a top-10 SP season. | | Will Francis be as cheap as Lugo? That seems unlikely. Will Francis be as good as Lugo has been this season? I'd strongly bet against it. But that's the archetype here – decent strikeout rate, great command and control, and solid results on balls in play, with a good team backing him up. Francis isn't an ace, and he's unlikely to carry this kind of success over in 2025. But I do think he can be a useful player for 2025, and someone I'd be willing to take a flier on in Fantasy if his price doesn't creep into the top 150 in 2025 drafts. | | | | Thursday's waiver targets | | | | Dean Kremer, SP, Orioles (47%) – The waiver-wire pitcher options haven't been great of late if you're looking for some late-season streamers, but I think Kremer is a perfectly fine target – at least for next week. He's scheduled to face the Yankees and Twins in the final week of the season, which isn't ideal, but he'll get the Giants next week, and I'm fine with trusting Kremer in that one after yet another quality start Wednesday, his fifth in six tries. He had a 2.62 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over the past six starts, with nearly a strikeout per inning, and with the Orioles offense backing him up, I like his chances of coming away with a win next week. | | Tommy Edman, OF, Dodgers (58%) – I thought this was going to be a lost season for Edman after his tricky recovery from wrist surgery, but he's making my skepticism look pretty foolish after homering twice in consecutive games Tuesday and Wednesday. Those are the only homers he's hit in 21 games, but even before this stretch, he was hitting .282 and had five steals, so he was finding ways to be productive even without hitting for power. He's looked like Tommy Edman, more or less, and that's always been a must-roster player for Fantasy. Why shouldn't he be now? | | Matthew Boyd, SP, Guardians (60%) – Boyd was a little disappointing against the White Sox , mostly because he only made it through 4.1 innings of work before being pulled. But he was let down by his defense some (three unearned runs) and still managed to record nine strikeouts despite not really having the feel for his slider; he generated eight whiffs on his four-seamer and seven on his changeup instead. Trusting Boyd has historically been a pretty precarious position to find yourself in, but he has a 2.18 ERA and 0.91 WHIP with solid peripherals since making his debut six starts ago, and he gets the Twins and Cardinals next week, decent enough matchups. Boyd is a more-than-viable streamer for at least that week; I'm a little more wary of the following week's matchup against the Astros. | | Tommy Pham, OF, Royals (19%) – Pham's move to the Royals didn't garner much hype when it happened, but it's been a pretty big deal so far. He has led off all 10 games since joining the Royals and is hitting .317 after going 3 for 4 Wednesday. Pham still has decent power and speed skills, and now he's hitting at the top of a good lineup, so I think he's probably at least a little under-rostered right now. | | | | News and Notes | | Jose Altuve left Wednesday due to right side discomfort. Astros manager Joe Espada said after the game that he doesn't believe the injury is serious, but we're at the point in the schedule where even not-so-serious injuries can be season-enders. I'm not saying Altuve's will be, but if it's an oblique, it certainly could be. | | Reynaldo Lopez was placed on the IL with right shoulder inflammation. He left Tuesday's start after just one inning and his velocity was way down, and even if this ends up being a minimum stay on the IL, that would only leave Lopez with one turn in the rotation before the season ends. In all likelihood, his regular season is over, and you can drop Lopez. | | Kyle Schwarber was scratched from the lineup as he continues to experience soreness in his left elbow. | | Justin Steele threw a bullpen Wednesday, his first time throwing off a mound since going on the IL last week. He's slated to throw another bullpen over the weekend, but it's not clear if there is going to be enough time for him to get back on a mound for the regular season at this point. | | Teoscar Hernandez returned to the lineup after missing four straight with a left ankle contusion. | | Brandon Lowe returned to the lineup after missing five straight with a sore finger. | | JT Realmuto is expected to rejoin the Phillies lineup Friday. He's missed five straight with a left knee contusion. I wouldn't be surprised if the Phillies gave him some extra time off down the stretch after this, so if you wanted to add someone like Joey Bart in a one-catcher league to start ahead of Realmuto, I'm not opposed to it. | | It turns out Connor Norby was scratched Tuesday due to left foot soreness, but he was back in the lineup Wednesday. | | Merrill Kelly left Wednesday's start due to right hamstring cramping, but he's expected to make his next turn in the rotation. | | Jasson Dominguez was out of the lineup Wednesday against the lefty Cole Ragans. Despite being a switch-hitter, he's had some bad splits against lefties in his minor-league career, so it wouldn't be totally shocking if the Yankees didn't quite play him every day down the stretch. | | Chas McCormick is headed to the IL with a fracture in his right hand. | | Edwin Uceta has been suspended for two games after it was determined he intentionally hit Nick Castellanos with a pitch on Tuesday. | | The Padres optioned Luis Campusano to Triple-A. He has hit just .227 this season with eight homers after appearing to put things together at the end of last season. | | The Padres placed Martin Perez on the paternity list, which means he'll miss up to three games. | | James Paxton plans to retire after this season. | | Wednesday's standouts | | Blake Snell, Giants vs. MIL: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – It was nice to see Snell bounce back in this one, generating 17 whiffs on 95 pitches, 16 of them coming on his fastball and changeup. Snell has turned his season around in a big way after a miserable start, sporting a 3.52 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, though he actually only has one quality start in his last four, which isn't ideal. Snell is a frustrating, but often brilliant pitcher, and a must-start Fantasy option when he's rolling. | | Luis Gil, Yankees vs. KC: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – Gil is going to be a fascinating player to value for 2025. On Wednesday night's Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, Frank Stampfl asked us to project where we think Gil will be drafted in 2025, and our answers ranged from "top-50" (Scott) to "top-30" (me), though I will note this: I think someone will take Gil as a top-30 pitcher in most drafts, but it won't be me. He has a 3.18 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with 10.4 K/9 on the season, and is likely to finish with right around 150 innings. You could fairly easily project 180 innings and truly massive strikeout numbers for 2025, but that'll still be dependent on him staying healthy coming off a season with a massive innings increase. Gil is going to carry a ton of injury risk into next season, and he'll also have plenty of performance risk in his profile – his 4.25 xFIP feels especially notable here. But the upside is obvious, and someone is going to talk themselves into it. | | Sean Manaea, Mets @TOR: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 8 K – One detail I missed in Manaea's recent hot stretch is that it came along with a change in his delivery; he lowered his arm slot a few inches, leading to an improvement in his stuff metrics that has coincided with his improved performance of late. Which is to say, there are real reasons to think this might not just be a random hot streak for Manaea, who now has 42 strikeouts over his past five starts and 70 in 58 innings over his past 10 starts. We've seen some stretches like this from Manaea in the past, and they haven't proven sustainable in the long run, and I'd bet this one won't either – I probably won't rank him inside my top 40 or anything for 2025. But I do think it's reasonable to remain optimistic about him for the rest of the season, including in his next start against the Nationals. | | Bryan Woo, Mariners vs. SD: 6.2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Woo is one player I've changed my opinion on perhaps more than any other over the past few months. In the first half of the season, Woo was rocking elite ratios, but rarely pitching more than five innings or 80 pitches in a start while dealing with recurring injury scares. However, we're getting a glimpse of how impressive the upside can be for Woo when he is healthy, as he has now gone at least six innings in seven of his past eight starts since Aug. 2, with 45 strikeouts in 52 innings of work and a 2.42 ERA. If that strikeout rate seems a bit underwhelming, I'll note that his 22.9% mark in that time is an improvement over his early-season mark and actually slightly above average for the league. With his elite control and multiple seasons of elite results on balls in play, Woo might only need average strikeout numbers to have elite upside. Now let's just hope he can continue to avoid injuries. | | Nick Pivetta, Red Sox vs. BAL: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – That's three straight quality starts for Pivetta, plus that resumed game from June where he threw six innings with two earned runs and 10 strikeouts. We've seen these stretches from Pivetta in the past, and while I'm fine relying on him through the end of the season – he currently lines up to face the Rays, Twins, and Rays again to close out the season – let's not make the mistake of thinking this is something he's likely to carry over to 2025. We did that with Pivetta's big second half last year, and he ended up being a pretty big headache for Fantasy. We know who Pivetta is at this point: Someone capable of stretches of absolute brilliance, but who has never shown the ability to put it together consistently enough to be a must-start Fantasy option. There's no reason to think it'll be any different this time around. | | Cody Bradford, Rangers @ARI: 3.2 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 0 BB, 4 K – Every night on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, we have a little segment called, "To Stream or Not To Stream," where we talk about the relatively lower-owned pitchers from the next day's games we would consider streaming in daily-lineup leagues, and I was out on Bradford on Tuesday night's show. He's been terrific all season, but in a way that has always felt at least a little bit flukey; he does a good job limiting walks and hard contact but doesn't miss enough bats to ever really be much more than a good streamer, in my eyes. And taking that risk against a team like the Diamondbacks just never made much sense to me, so I'm not at all surprised by this result. He should be better moving forward, but this is a reminder that he's probably not a true-talent, sub-4.00 ERA guy, either. | | | | | | | | Pushing the Pile | | Big Ten on CBS | Catch up on this week's episodes of Pushing the Pile where football insiders Kyle Long and Mike Renner will take you behind the tape for recaps, previews, news and insights. Listen anywhere you find your podcasts!
Listen Now
| | The Fighting Irish and the Boilermakers go head-to-head this Saturday at 3:30 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
|
| | | | |
|
|
