When a federal court ordered that Alabama redraw part of its Congressional map, the point was to create another district in the state that would give Black residents the upper hand in selecting the candidate they'd like to have represent them in the U.S. House of Representatives. And apparently the court meant it, because it rejected an effort from the state Legislature and had an appointed team redraw the map again. The result, in effect, was a District 2 that would almost certainly deliver a second Democratic Congressperson from Alabama. Well, we might not ought to get too far ahead of ourselves. Alexander Willis of the Alabama Daily News reports that political-science experts are pointing to several things that could keep the seat red next year. And maybe the biggest factor is the race at the top of the ballot: Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump for president. Which of those candidates is energizing his own voters vs. incentivizing others to vote against him? Said Auburn University professor Joseph Aistrup: “You look at those two excitement levels, and the Democrats are lower right now than the Republicans, so I think that’s something that cuts against (Democrat Shomari) Figures in this race. That’s the key national issue that’s going to affect this race.” A January poll by Suffolk University showed that 18% of Democratic primary voters described themselves as “very enthusiastic” to vote for Biden in November, and 44% of Republican voters said the same about Trump. Biden's debate performance and Trump's surviving an assassination attempt have certainly not equalized those numbers any. Jess Brown was a long-time poly-sci professor at Athens State University. He predicted that Trump's base would turn out but that “Biden is not a comparable catalyst for African-American turnout, but if the Democrats change horses and nominate (Vice President Kamala) Harris, the dynamics of African-American voter turnout will change and probably be increased slightly.” Despite all that, we still could call Republican candidate Caroleene Dobson an underdog against Democrat Shomari Figures. Analysis of past election statistics shows that the Black-preferred candidate would've won 15 of the past 17 Congressional elections in the current district. |