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| Wednesday, August 14, 2024 |
| I'm going to attempt to categorize the sleepers that we discuss today. I just had a conversation with Heath Cummings about upside, and it got me thinking about how I might best package and deliver "sleeper" picks in this space. I separated the players into four buckets of sleepers: |
| 1. Players who simply seem mispriced on CBS |
| CBS rank -- Player -- my rank |
66 -- Malik Nabers -- 25
93 -- Diontae Johnson -- 50
102 -- Tyjae Spears -- 84
111 -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba -- 66
119 -- Courtland Sutton -- 95
136 -- Josh Palmer -- 92 |
| These are all straightforward cases, I simply seem to project each of these players for a larger role than the public consensus. If you have questions about any of the six players in this category, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter. We have a lot of ground to cover today, so let's keep it moving. |
| 2. Perfect storm sleepers |
| This link should take you to the seven-minute mark of my conversation with Heath, which is what I'd like to highlight for the purposes of today's discussion. He asked me what last year's Fantasy league-winners -- Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, De'Von Achane, and Raheem Mostert were the names that he mentioned -- had in common, and I gave him two answers: They played in high-scoring offenses, and there was ambiguity around how the touches would be dispersed within those offenses. |
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| Buffalo is the first team that comes to mind as an example of offering us both a massive projected point total and ambiguity as to how the targets, rushes, and touchdowns might be dispersed. The Bills have the fifth-highest Vegas implied point total for 2024, and we have absolutely no idea how the playing time will shake out for anyone other than Josh Allen and James Cook. Who else comes to mind? |
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| We actually have a bunch of teams projected for big point totals with uncertainty as to which pass-catchers might be responsible for scoring the points in 2024! The Chiefs added two dynamic playmakers to the receiver room. What if the 49ers trade Brandon Aiyuk? There will certainly be upside for someone to play a larger role in his absence, and the 49ers opened the summer with a higher Vegas implied point total than any team. |
| Vegas has 18 teams implied for 400+ points scored over the course of the 2024 regular season. The teams on the fringe of the 400+ point mark are displayed below. |
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| There are a handful of teams that exist just outside of the 400-point threshold but could push into that range -- Seattle and Arizona would be my picks. You can see that there's a significant drop-off after those offenses, though. For the purposes of establishing "perfect storm" sleepers, I'm going to use 400 projected points as the cutoff. No Seahawks players will be included, for example. |
| 3. Injury-contingent sleepers |
| On paper, Davante Adams is a better pick than DeVonta Smith for 2024. The most likely outcome involves Adams outscoring Smith. What might happen if A.J. Brown misses time, though? What happens if one of the Houston receivers misses time? What if DK Metcalf missed time, what would that mean for Jaxon Smith-Njigba's output? |
| I brought up Adams as a comparison because he already is projected for one of the highest target shares of any player. I can't reasonably project him for a significantly larger role than I already am. There's no superstar target-magnet teammate in Vegas. The same could be said for Garrett Wilson in New York. His projected target share is already set at around 30%. What might someone like Jaylen Waddle look like with a 30% target share if playing without Tyreek Hill? |
| This is contingency upside. If Najee Harris misses time, Jaylen Warren could be a league-winner. |
| I don't have any interest in predicting injuries, that's not what I'm attempting to do here. But injuries happen all the time. Consider the "league winners" that Heath outlined. Nacua directly benefited from an injury. Jeff Wilson's August injury cleared the runway for Mostert and Achane. I don't want to root for injuries, but I do want to have awareness of which players have contingent upside and which do not. |
| If Amon-Ra St. Brown misses time, Sam LaPorta could break Fantasy. The same type of contingent upside doesn't really exist for Dalton Kincaid or Mark Andrews. It does exist for Kyle Pitts and Brock Bowers . It's an interesting, albeit a bit morbid, way of thinking about future potential outcomes, and it may be a valuable tie-breaker when choosing between two players. |
| Today, the players who I'll categorize as injury-contingent sleepers will likely only present league-winning upside in the case of an injury. Unlike DeVonta Smith, these players do not project to offer standalone value on their own. |
| 4. Outlier talent sleepers |
| C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins are the best 2023 examples of outlier talent sleepers that I could come up with. Breece Hall is who came to mind first, but his offense was expected to be good. The Texans were not projected to be good in 2023. Both Stroud and Collins (I really believe he is a historic type of talent) were so good that the outcome we got from Houston exceeded any conceivable expectations. |
| Alright, one final note before we jump in: |
| I'll be updating my NFL Journal 2024 with notes each week, starting in the preseason. Feel free to read it. Friday's FFT Newsletter will be an 'In the Lab' installment. Please fill out this form to let me know who you want to learn more about! |
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| Perfect storm sleepers |
| Kyle Pitts |
| Maybe you don't think that Pitts is being drafted late enough to warrant the "sleeper" designation. Oh well. Everything is relative. If drafting in a league with 11 expert Fantasy analysts who spend their summers waking up and praying for the tight end savior that was promised before finding 100 different ways to manipulate per-route data, then yeah, Pitts is probably not going to be available to you as a late-round sleeper pick. I know some of us take Fantasy football very seriously and are in very serious leagues. Some of us just play in casual leagues with people from work. Pitts is drafted 72nd overall on CBS on average. His Yahoo ADP is 77th. His ADP is behind Dalton Kincaid on every major site that I have visited. He's being drafted behind George Kittle on all but one. Pitts is even drafted behind Evan Engram on CBS and ESPN. |
| To me, drafting those tight ends ahead of Pitts would be an egregious mistake. Egregious! |
| Here's where I have Pitts ranked, for reference: |
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| In some drafts, you'll be able to land my 41st overall-ranked player in the sixth round or beyond. Pitts sometimes slides past pick 80 in drafts where people have bias against him from past experiences. |
| Let's examine the perfect storm forming in Atlanta. |
| The Falcons have the 13th-highest implied point total for 2024, just behind the Rams, Eagles, and Packers. This could be one of the league's top-scoring offenses. The new coaching staff is extremely exciting. The offensive line could be the best in football . And the archaic offensive system that Pitts has operated from to this point in his career is being completely overhauled. Last year's Falcons used three or more receivers only 18% of the time offensively. The next-lowest rate was 39%. Atlanta's offense truly has felt like a 1970s team time traveled to the future to show us how to play smash-mouth football. It has not worked, and things mercifully appear to be changing under the new regime. |
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| The Falcons and Steelers were the only two teams with a situation-neutral (score within six points) pass rate that was not above 50% in 2023. The new Atlanta offensive coordinator spent five years working under Sean McVay in L.A., and the Rams never ranked lower than 15th in situation-neutral pass rate during that time. |
| I have the Falcons projected for the 15th-highest pass rate in 2024, right in line with the league average. This yields 569 team targets. Last year's Falcons created only 508 targets, the seventh-lowest mark. In 2022, Atlanta somehow only created 400 team targets. I have the 2024 Falcons projected for the 10th-most passing yards and 11th-most passing touchdowns in 2024. Atlanta ranked 22nd and 26th in those categories in 2023. |
| The Fantasy community hasn't seen the hypothetical upside come to fruition yet for Pitts, and you can feel that uncertainty in his draft cost. I want to embrace the uncertainty. Buy the fear. If we swing and miss on these sleeper picks, we ride the chaos that is the NFL season. If you are reading the FFT newsletter each week, then you should be ahead of the market on developing situations and might be able to find cheap value to offset any swings and misses or injury losses to still put yourself in a position to compete later in the year. |
| Caleb Williams |
| I outlined a perfect storm scenario for Caleb Williams on Twitter this summer. If you watched any of his preseason debut, you likely are coming around. For what it's worth, the Bears only dropped back to pass on eight of 18 plays with Williams on the field. New Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was pass-heavy and played with pace during his time with Seattle, but it's possible that he may scale the aggression back a bit with a rookie QB. Khalil Herbert played a ton of first-string snaps, and Chicago fed him nine carries with the first-team offense. If he's going to be a significant part of what Chicago's offense does, that changes the equation. |
| Still, the combination of scoring upside (the Bears have the 16th-highest implied point total) and volume ambiguity absolutely exists in Chicago. If the Bears do lean pass-heavy, we could see Williams put up production that we've never seen from a rookie QB before. |
| My guess is that the Bears lean into the ground game and play conservatively early but look to open things up as Williams and Rome Odunze get their feet under them. If this offense hits its stride, Williams could be a top-eight weekly scorer at the QB position over the second half of the season. I have Williams ranked ahead of Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, and Brock Purdy, and you could even consider taking him over Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow if only looking for upside. He has the weapons, his offensive line looks sneaky-good to me, and his ability to create plays with his legs has already been put on full display in just one preseason game. |
| Xavier Worthy and/or Rashee Rice |
| The injury to Marquise Brown is unfortunate for a number of reasons. It sounds painful. It also will likely push both Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice up people's draft boards. I've been scooping a ton of these two in drafts. Brown did not project to be a significant part of Kansas City's offense for me. I expected him to play a lot, but mostly as the "X" receiver lined up on the line of scrimmage where opposing press corners could get their hands on him. I expected his role to be to occupy the attention of opposing top corners while running deep routes to stretch defenses and create space for all of Kansas City's explosive catch-and-run options. It's an important real-life role, but not one that was likely to result in many targets for Brown. |
| It has been veteran field-stretcher Justin Watson who has replaced Brown with the first-team in Chiefs practice this week. To me, this signals that I was probably right about the role that Brown was going to play. If Skyy Moore or Mecole Hardman were taking Brown's reps, that would suggest that Worthy was likely to take on more downfield work from the "X" spot. It appears that Watson will step in as the "sacrificial X" and allow Andy Reid to get creative with his usage for Worthy and Rice. |
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| I wrote about Worthy when he was drafted if you want to read more about his collegiate profile. He's more than just a deep threat. Worthy is an exciting playmaker with the ball in his hands. |
| Rashee Rice was a PPR cheat code as a rookie. That was definitely in part due to the amount of designed touches that Andy Reid scripted up for him, and he may see fewer of those opportunities with Worthy now on the roster. Rice's data outside of those opportunities was really good too, though! |
| It is rare that we are able to draft a player who performed as well as Rice did as a rookie this late in Fantasy. I have Kansas City's offense projected to lead the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns while producing the second-most receptions. There's massive opportunity available in this offense. What if Rice is better than he was as a rookie? His per-route efficiency only improved as he was given more opportunities, which is rare. He could absolutely improve in Year 2. If the two speed threats that Kansas City added strike fear into opposing defenses, there is going to be so much room to operate in the short and intermediate areas. |
| This is the range that I have the two Chiefs pass-catchers ranked in: |
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| Keon Coleman and/or Curtis Samuel |
| The starting skill position players along with Josh Allen and James Cook were Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Dawson Knox . Shakir was targeted on Buffalo's first preseason play, and he was then replaced by Curtis Samuel (who was targeted on the second play). From that point on, any time that Kincaid moved to the slot, Samuel and Coleman were the perimeter receiver pairing. |
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| Who knows how the playing time will actually sort out between Samuel and Shakir, but it appears as if Buffalo is going to give Coleman an opportunity to work as the number one receiver. I'm not convinced that Coleman is ready to win as a perimeter receiver at the NFL level, but this is a situation that cannot be overlooked. In terms of ambiguous target distributions in good offenses go, the 2024 Bills are the premier source of hypothetical upside. Hitting on the correct player in this situation might be one of the most important developments of the 2024 Fantasy football season. |
| My bet has been on Samuel when drafting this summer. I fully believe in him as a player, which isn't something that I can say for Coleman. You'll find plenty of reasons for optimism for Samuel in this Twitter thread. |
| Maybe the answer is simply Dalton Kincaid. His preseason usage was encouraging. Even though Dawson Knox was out there often, Kincaid stayed on the field. He could have a monster year with a snap rate above 80%. I prefer to either pay a bit more for tight ends like Trey McBride or Sam LaPorta , and I like the outlook for Mark Andrews more than Kincaid straight-up. I also am content waiting a round to grab Pitts. And if I miss out on Pitts, I can get Jake Ferguson even later, so I find myself mostly gravitating to the cheaper Bills exposure, which comes through the WR position. Given the preseason usage, I'm ready to start adding some Keon Coleman to my 2024 exposure. I'm fine with drafts where I leave with both Samuel and Coleman. I want to take shots at hitting on a big-time sleeper from this group of pass-catchers. |
| Jake Ferguson |
| I have the Cowboys projected for the third-most targets, fourth-most receiving yards, and third-most receiving touchdowns. Dallas appears to have capitulated to the "running backs don't matter" groupthink several years after its peak popularity. |
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| In the pictured Twitter thread, I am referencing Jared Smola's article, '132 things I learned from doing 2024 Fantasy football projections.' |
| There is simply no answer for this team on the 2024 RB depth chart. It's setting up to be a perfect storm for Ferguson and CeeDee Lamb to put up monstrous numbers for as long as Dak Prescott remains healthy and this offense is functional. I do worry a bit about the offense remaining functional. The offensive line might work, but it feels fragile . And, of course, the contract issues for Prescott and Lamb don't inspire confidence in the cohesiveness of this team moving forward. |
| Why are we talking about Ferguson then? Well, he's been pretty dang efficient with his routes for a young tight end. |
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| Ferguson's average depth of target (4.7 yards) is by far the lowest of any of the 12 tight ends pictured above. That's interesting to me for two reasons. He's still produced yards per route run at a respectable clip, even with such short targets. The second reason I bring up his aDOT is that makes Ferguson the most logical safety valve if the offensive line does become an issue. |
| Ferguson is not an explosive athlete in the same way that Pitts is. That does not preclude him from bringing big Fantasy upside, though. As Jared Smola mentioned, Ferguson tied Travis Kelce for the position lead at TE in expected receiving touchdowns in 2023. There's massive scoring opportunity for him if Dallas again produces 30+ passing touchdowns. He could sneakily replicate the type of production that a player like LaPorta offers at a fraction of the price. |
| Injury-contingent sleepers |
Amethyst Tier -- Projecting these players as flex options with the upside to become league-winners if a teammate misses time
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Zach Charbonnet -- Every-down skillset in an exciting offense. He'd project similarly to Josh Jacobs/Joe Mixon/James Conner if Kenneth Walker did not exist.
Blake Corum -- Elite rusher in 2021 and 2022. Seems like a perfect fit for the direction that Sean McVay is taking his run game. Three-down potential in one of the best offenses. |
| Rome Odunze -- Rostering Odunze will likely require patience. The upside is massive. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception graded Odunze as the second-best WR from this loaded 2024 class. Check out where Odunze ranks among Harmon's 2021-24 stacked WR draft class rankings: |
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| He may never be a trustworthy Fantasy option as a rookie. It will depend on how much the Bears pass the ball. If either Keenan Allen or DJ Moore miss time, though, Odunze could be a monster Fantasy producer. |
| Brock Bowers -- If Davante Adams misses time during his age-32 season, Bowers would likely serve as the focal point of the Raiders passing game. Adams projects for a 30% target share, and his removal from the offense would open up massive contingent upside for Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Bowers may not see enough volume otherwise, but Adams (or Michael Mayer, to a lesser extent) missing time could vault him into league-winning territory. |
| Diamond Tier -- There's league-winning potential here, but it's speculative. |
| Justin Fields -- If starting, Fields will probably offer top-eight Fantasy QB scoring. I don't trust him, the pass-blocking, or the play-calling. But it truly might not matter for Fantasy purposes. And it will be hard for Pittsburgh to provide him with a worse offensive environment than the one he endured in Chicago. |
Trey Benson -- One of the most explosive athletes in recent rookie memory with wild collegiate avoided tackle rates to boot, Benson sure is intriguing. I don't have complete confidence in his ability to fill an every-down role as a rookie, which is why he's not in the amethyst tier.
Jaylen Wright -- He's got the juice, that was readily apparent in one preseason game. He's not De'Von Achane. Nothing from his prospect profile (data or film-based analysis) inspires the type of confidence that Achane's time at Texas A&M did. But if either or both of Miami's top two backs miss time, Wright has league-winner written all over him.
Brealon Allen -- A behemoth of a running back and a terrifying open-field tackle , Allen appears locked in as the primary backup for Breece Hall. If plugged into Hall's role, Allen could play all three downs in an offense that might put a lot of points on the board. New York invested heavily in the offensive line this offseason. |
Jayden Reed -- He's not amethyst tier even though he feels like he should be. I simply need to see him play in two-receiver sets. I have no confidence that it would be Reed and not Wicks who saw more playing time if Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs were to miss time. From a talent perspective, Reed absolutely belongs in amethyst. I don't know if his playing time would change at all if either perimeter receiver missed time. Even if he did not play more, I would expect Reed to be targeted more if Watson was removed from the equation.
Dontayvion Wicks -- He's a beast. He may be Green Bay's best receiver. He replaced Watson for the second preseason offensive play and immediately scored a 65-yard touchdown. If given regular playing time, Wicks could absolutely be this year's "out of nowhere" Nico Collins-esque breakout that was really hidden right under our nose the whole time. |
Dallas Goedert -- He's become a forgotten man, but that would likely change if either Philly star WR missed time.
Isaiah Likely -- I'm a bit more dubious of Likely's actual ability than many seem to be, but another Mark Andrews injury would certainly make him an intriguing TE option for Fantasy purposes.
Luke Musgrave -- A Tucker Kraft injury would open up more playing time. An injury to Watson or Reed would likely open up more targets. Musgrave might not matter as part of a loaded offense with nearly double-digit skill position players vying for touches, but if that number gets trimmed down at all, he could shine with more opportunities. |
| Emerald Tier |
| Michael Penix Jr. -- His preseason film looked great. He played quick and with confidence. If asked to step up, Penix might be able to keep this talented Atlanta offense rolling even as a rookie. He's worth rostering in Superflex leagues. |
Tyrone Tracy Jr. -- He's my most-rostered player in Dynasty formats and has been my favorite late-round sleeper for redraft formats as well. You can learn more about Tracy in this thread.
MarShawn Lloyd -- If Josh Jacobs misses time, MarShawn Lloyd would probably get an opportunity to show why Green Bay used a Round 3 pick to acquire his skill set. He can play all three downs and has infinitely more juice than AJ Dillon. The rookie has missed some valuable reps early on with injuries and has had fumble and drop issues in the past, so there's no guarantee that he'd produce even if Jacobs were sidelined. The upside is massive, though.
Bucky Irving -- My favorite preseason footage so far belongs to Bucky Irving. He can play all three downs and is not an easy tackle. Statistically, he compared similarly to Clyde Edwards-Helaire as a prospect, but Irving seems to have way more juice than I ever saw from CEH. A Rachaad White injury would open up a potential three-down role for Irving.
Khalil Herbert -- He played 72% of the snaps with the starters in the first preseason game. Statistically, Herbert is by far the best early-down rusher that the Bears have , and it's not close. He may have standalone value, even without an injury. The reason that I have Herbert in the emerald tier and not higher is that I don't ever foresee a situation where he might play all three downs.
Ray Davis -- Thought of as an early-down grinder, Davis has some sauciness to his game that many might not realize. He can create explosive plays and contribute to passing downs. If James Cook missed time, Davis might step into a massive role.
Tyler Allgeier -- Like Herbert, I doubt that Allgeier would play all three downs in any scenario. He offers above average early-down rushing ability though. If Bijan Robinson were to miss time, Allgeier would likely see 15+ touches per game in a competent offense. |
Jerry Jeudy -- If Amari Cooper missed time, Jeudy and David Njoku would likely operate as the 1A/1B for an offense that has the ability to put points on the board.
Josh Downs -- An injured ankle is a bummer of a way to start Year 2, but Downs remains a threat to emerge as Anthony Richardson's top play-creator on improvisational plays. If Michael Pittman were to miss time, Downs profiles as the clear answer as the next-best option to consistently create open targets for Richardson. Adonai Mitchell and Alec Pierce weren't ever targeted at a high rate, even in college.
Jalen McMillan -- The offseason drumbeat has remained constant and resonant all throughout training camp and into preseason. My projections estimate that McMillan won't see enough volume to matter outside of an injury, but we have seen him put up massive numbers when a star WR teammate went down before.
Jermaine Burton -- It appears as if the Bengals are going to leave Ja'Marr Chase primarily on the perimeter and let Andrei Iosivas work from the slot. Burton will likely need an injury to Chase or Higgins to matter. But he could have huge potential if either stud WR misses time.
Darnell Mooney -- If Drake London misses time, Mooney suddenly could see a target share in the 25% range for a high-powered offense. We've seen him occupy that type of role before. |
| Ben Sinnott -- Zach Ertz might block his path to playing time, but the upside is massive for Sinnott if ever able to fill a full-time role. |
| Gold Tier |
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Elijah Mitchell
Audric Estime
Ty Chandler
Will Shipley |
Ricky Pearsall
Jacob Cowing
Luke McCaffrey
Malik Washington |
| Greg Dulcich |
| Outlier talent sleepers |
| Jayden Daniels |
| Jayden Daniels scrambled more at the collegiate level than any QB drafted since 2017. When pressured in 2023, he scrambled 32% of the time. That's an absurd rate. Among Round 1 QBs drafted since 2016, he is the only one with a single-season rate above 20%. Daniels hit that rate in four different seasons! |
| Daniels might be pressured a lot as a rookie. I have no idea if Washington's offense is going to work. Generally speaking, I do not trust Kliff Kingsbury. But maybe Daniels is an outlier talent! That's the whole point, here. He might be able to transcend a less-than-ideal set of circumstances with his rushing ability. |
| And for what it's worth, there are some circumstantial things that actually may support or even elevate the Fantasy outlook for the rookie QB. |
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| For my money, Daniels is the easy-button sleeper of 2024. Easier than any player at any position, Daniels is the clear-cut sleeper pick. He's my QB7, and I've drafted him all over the place in every format this summer. |
| Jonathan Brooks |
| Brooks brings the ability to be an outlier receiving threat at the RB position, and that's the path to upside for Fantasy running backs. The following excerpt is from a previously-published FFT Newsletter titled, "The Importance of RB Targets & Receptions." |
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| This excerpt is from the Carolina Panthers team preview: |
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| The upside for Brooks to be posting top-five Fantasy RB PPR point totals late in the season is real. Carolina's offensive line is a potential massive source of improvement from 2023 to 2024. The film for Bryce Young showed many of the encouraging traits that were on display at Alabama. Diontae Johnson is exactly the type of receiver that Young desperately needed. This offense could be functional by the time Brooks is rolling and ready to assume a large workload. His receiving ability is the outlier talent that can take him over the top as an elite Fantasy asset. |
| Brian Thomas Jr. |
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| You might have concerns about Brian Thomas as a target-earner. I get that. A lot of his collegiate analytical information is concerning at first glance. Let's dig a bit deeper, though. |
| Without Malik Nabers on the field, BTJ did flash target-earning ability. Another interesting note -- BTJ dominated press coverage when lined up as the "X" receiver, particularly in 2023. |
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| The Jaguars desperately needed a receiver to win from the "X" spot in 2023. They tried and failed to make Calvin Ridley that player. I think that they found their answer in BTJ. In the first preseason game, he was on the field for every snap with the starters. Christian Kirk was the Jaguars receiver who came off of the field in two receiver sets. |
| The "Calvin Ridley role" could have been extremely lucrative for Fantasy purposes with better success converting in 2023. A good portion of that opportunity may go to the Round 1 selection who just scored 17 touchdowns at LSU as a 21-year-old junior. |
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| Top-150 Half-PPR Rankings |
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| QB Rankings Update |
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| RB Rankings Update |
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| WR Rankings Update |
| TE Rankings Update |
| I'll be in your inbox every weekday and every Sunday morning during the regular season! Until then, we'll be rocking three days a week. Use your newfound free toilet time wisely. Maybe learn a new language over the next few Tuesdays and Thursdays. You learned how to make sense of my ramblings and made-up stats this summer! You are capable of so much! What might you do with this newfound freedom? The world is yours! I will be sleeping. And I hope to occasionally use my free time on Tuesdays and Thursdays to go outside, maybe get some grass and sun on my skin. Take some deep breaths before we lock in for another fun and chaotic ride. NFL is so back, baby! I am so grateful and excited to be able to deliver this newsletter to you as we navigate the 2024 season together. This is going to be fun! |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! |
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