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DON'T believe the fake 'Martin Lewis' or 'MSE' ads |
Yesterday I again called for Government intervention to prevent an energy bill crisis before 1 April, when the price cap - which most bills are now based on - is predicted to rise 51%, a nightmare that'll throw millions into fuel poverty. Unsurprisingly, with this prediction many are asking me if they should now move off the price cap to fix? After number-crunching, for most, it's still a 'no', but for the first time in many months, fixing may be worth it for a few... This is all about the price cap, which 60%+ (and rising) of homes are on. The price cap limits what firms can charge in Eng, Scot & Wales for their default standard variable tariffs. Calling it a 'Price Cap' is a misnomer, there's no max you pay for energy, think of it more as a cap on the cost of each unit of gas and elec. Most people who aren't on fixes are on it. You're on it if...- You've never switched tariff. - Your cheap fix ended & you did nothing (as there are no cheap deals now, many are being moved to it). - Your firm recently went bust and you were moved elsewhere. For years I warned price-capped tariffs were far from cheap. Yet last year wholesale energy prices (those suppliers pay) exploded, and as that takes time to feed into the cap, it currently forces firms to sell gas and electricity massively below cost. In fact, there are NO MEANINGFULLY CHEAPER SWITCHABLE DEALS. That's why my mantra's been 'do nothing', as then you're on, or will eventually move to, a price-capped tariff. The price cap will likely rise a sickening 51% on 1 April. It's revalued six-monthly, based on wholesale energy prices, which are now astronomical (see how the price cap's set). The latest evaluation period finishes this month, so predictions are firming up. Analysts Cornwall Insight's latest is the cap will rise 51%, that's £1,925/yr for someone on typical use. Other predictions range from a 46% to 56% rise. It'll likely hit pockets immediately, as even while April usage is lower, direct debits will be upped then based on annual usage. THE BIG QUESTION: Should you ditch the price cap to fix? Sticking on the price cap has saved people large so far, but as we get nearer to 1 April, less time and therefore benefit remains of the current low rate. Switch now, and as moving firm takes an average 17 days, you'd lose just over two (high use) months' cheap rate. We've factored all that into the number crunch and today (the percentage level will rise in coming weeks) the result is... If you're offered a fix that's no more than 40% costlier than your current price-capped tariff, it's worth considering - especially if you value budgeting certainty A few existing customer deals (especially from Scottish Power and Octopus) may get closer, so if you're offered one, do the numbers to see what % the increase is. Though as in-house switches happen quicker, you'll lose more cheap rate time. Of course, fix now and if wholesale prices drop rapidly, so fixes get cheaper in future, you would've unnecessarily lost out on the current cheap cap rate (you could always fix again then, just paying early exit fees - trivial in the big picture right now). Then again, don't fix now, and if prices rise, fixes could get even more expensive. This isn't easy. Confused? Most should still DO NOTHING and stick on the price cap. I know this is complex. So to summarise, it looks like most people should do nothing (no certainty, I don't have a crystal ball), it looks like only a few edge cases should be looking at fixing right now. So if in doubt, just stick on today's cheapest price - which is the cap. And to be plain, the 40% figure is my best guess, not firm. Other assumptions I've needed to make are... - Neither the Government or Ofgem change the methodology, market or levies on firms. - The October 2022 price cap will be similar to April's. Yet it's based on future, unknown February-July wholesale prices. In fact, if wholesale prices don't drop from where we are now, the cap will likely rise another 20% on top in October. - I've calculated based over the next year - not looked at longer-term fixes. Worried you can't pay bills? There's help available. This is a dreadful situation. If paying your bill is tough, check if you can claim the Warm Home Discount or an energy grant and talk to your supplier - you won't have your supply cut off and it may be able to put you on a payment plan. And of course, aim to decrease usage - see 9 energy saving tips. |
Our Martin's got an upgrade. He's been appointed a CBE in the recent Honours' list. See Martin's response and MSE Helen's note of congratulations, including how he inspires us all. January sales discounts BOOSTED, including £3.60 Asos dress (full price £40), £3.35 sandals (full price £25), £4 H&M joggers (full price £13). Less stock, but bigger discounts. Asos has upped its sale from 70% off to up to 80%, H&M (was 50%) and Selfridges (was 50%) are now up to 60%. Plus we predict if the other biggies will boost in our January sales round-up. Virgin Media customer? It's hiking bills £56/yr on average. See Virgin hike news & how to beat it. Lose or misplace your phone and can't ring as it's on silent? How to find it. See find my phone. Energy firms wrongly force home movers on to fixes - we're reporting them to Ofgem. Firms including Octopus and Scottish Power have forced some home movers on to fixes that can be up to double the price cap - when the rules say they must be allowed to go on to a capped tariff. We've compiled a dossier and sent it to the regulator Ofgem. See Energy firms breach home move rules for what you can do about it. Energy supplier gone bust? Check if you're now paying twice. Some MoneySavers have reported both their old and new suppliers taking regular payments. If affected, find how to reclaim your cash. Updated. 14 FREE ways to learn something new in 2022, such as languages, coding and history. If you plan to upskill this new year, see our popular Ways to learn skills for free blog, which includes new stuff such as how to brush up on your history and how to be more effective at work. It's back. Thu 8.30pm, ITV, The Martin Lewis Money Show LIVE - '5 must-knows for 2022'. Over to Martin: "We're back after our Christmas break, and so much has happened. I plan to talk through energy bills, roaming charges, tax rises and more - and of course what you can do about them. Plus the latest news-you-can-use. Do watch or set the Betamax." |
When you work for MoneySavingExpert.com, you get a lovely warm glow when people (and it happens a lot) tell you: "I love what you do - I get your email." Yet sometimes when you ask what they use it for, they go a bit sheepish and admit they get it, but don't always have the time to use the tips in it. So when we got this email from Andrew just before Christmas, which is lovely and flattering (no blushes), we thought we'd publish it today as our Success of the Week to show action works...
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The Sun '£9.50 holidays' return. They're cheap, but rarely £9.50. See Sun hols analysis, including refund rights. FREE 10-point Halfords winter car check. Includes battery, bulbs, oil & windscreen. Normally £15. Free car check Oxford University Press 25% off 1,000s of its uni textbooks. See Discounted textbooks. FREE Homebuilding & Renovating Show tickets. For Farnborough, 15-16 Jan, normally £12. Free tickets 'My 13 lucky years at MoneySavingExpert - highs, lows, laughs & sabotage.' Departing deputy editor Guy Anker gives a sneak peek into his time at MSE Towers. Farewell MSE Guy |
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AT A GLANCE BEST BUYS
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THIS WEEK'S POLL Parcel delivery firms: which are the best and worst? With more of us shopping online, parcel delivery firms are playing an increasingly important role in many people's lives - and of course they've been under intense pressure lately, particularly in the run up to Christmas. So it's time for our ninth annual poll to check how couriers are doing. Roast potatoes were MoneySavers' favourite Christmas dinner components, bread sauce the least. Last week, for a bit of fun, we asked what your favourite and least favourite parts of Christmas dinner were - 6,800 of you voted. Roast potatoes were the standout winner with nearly one-quarter choosing them as their favourite, followed by pigs in blankets and turkey. On the flip side, bread sauce was voted least favourite by nearly 20%, closely followed by brussels sprouts. See full Christmas dinner poll results. |
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MONEY MORAL DILEMMA Should I offer to pay part of my friend's parking fine? Over Christmas a friend took me out, but unfortunately when we got back to the car it had a parking ticket on it. My friend had decided where to park, as he was driving, and it was his home town and not an area I'm familiar with. Yet I feel like he wants me to offer to pay half of the fine as he got it taking me out, even though it really wasn't my fault. Enter the Money Moral Maze: Should I offer to pay part of my friend's parking fine? | Suggest an MMD |
MARTIN'S APPEARANCES (WED 5 JAN ONWARDS) Wed 5 Jan - Ask Martin Lewis, BBC Radio 5 Live, 1pm. Listen to past episodes MSE TEAM APPEARANCES (SOME SUBJECTS TBC) Fri 7 Jan - ITV regional news, with MSE's Katie Watts on Christmas consumer return rights, from 6pm |
SECRET SANTA GIFTS AND WRAPPING PAPER - YOUR BIGGEST WASTE OF CHRISTMAS CASH That's all for this week, but before we go... Forumites have been debating their biggest Christmas waste of money. Some believe Secret Santa gifts are generally useless tat, while others bemoan the waste from Christmas cards, disappointing crackers, excess food and wrapping paper. Let us know your thoughts in the what's the biggest Christmas waste of money? MSE Forum discussion. We hope you save some money, and we wish you a VERY happy and healthy new year. |
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