| | | | | Commentary | | The Straits Times index fell 0.7% or 22.88pts to 3230.55 (day range: 3247.36 - 3226.75) on Thursday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 3232) and above its 50d MA (@ 3208). 43% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 60% the previous session) and 50% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 53%). Technically, the index has retreated from its recent highs and deviated from levels around the upper Bollinger band. Currently, it is seeking support from the 20-day moving average. Also, the relative strength index is not indicating as strong upward momentum as before. However, the 50-day moving average and the key support at 3185 remain untouched. Therefore, the short-term outlook is still bullish though the index may have entered a consolidation phase. As long as the index avoid crossing below 3185, there are still chances the index would challenging again the first upside target at 3290. The HSI index fell 1.2% or 310.56pts to 25565.34 (day range: 25772.28 - 25565.34) on Thursday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 25691) and above its 50d MA (@ 24987). 30% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 56% the previous session) and 72% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 81%). Technically, the index has got deeper into its consolidation phase and violated the 20-day moving average, which has been given support. And the relative strength index is not indicating as strong upward momentum as before. However, the index still stays above the 50-day moving average and the key support at 25000. The consolidation phase may extend in time, but its extent should be limited. As long as the key support at 25000 is not broken, the short-term outlook remains bullish, and index still stands chances of rising toward the first upside target at 26350. |
| Straits Times Intraday: the downside prevails. | | Pivot: 3250.00
Our preference: short positions below 3250.00 with targets at 3226.00 & 3215.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 3250.00 look for further upside with 3265.00 & 3275.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is capped by a bearish trend line.
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| | | | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Straits Times |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 3250.00 | 31/08/2017 | -0.6 | CHAW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170831% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 12.5 % | | Put | 3050.00 | 31/08/2017 | -0.4 | CFWW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170831% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 17.2 % | | Call | 3300.00 | 31/08/2017 | 0.3 | CFVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170831% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 8.8 % | | Call | 3300.00 | 31/08/2017 | 0.3 | CFVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170831% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 8.8 % |
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| Hang Seng Intraday: under pressure. | | Pivot: 25800
Our preference: short positions below 25800 with targets at 25490 & 25340 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 25800 look for further upside with 25915 & 26050 as targets.
Comment: the RSI broke below a bullish trend line.
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| | | | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Hang Seng |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 24688.00 | 28/07/2017 | -0.3 | CHIW | Bank Vontobel | HSI VT EPW170728% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 19.2 % | | Put | 24400.00 | 28/07/2017 | -0.3 | CGSW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170728% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 22.7 % | | Put | 25200.00 | 28/07/2017 | -0.5 | CHPW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170728% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 20.4 % | | Call | 25800.00 | 28/07/2017 | 0.4 | CGYW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170728% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 21.9 % | | Call | 26400.00 | 30/08/2017 | 0.3 | CHLW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170830% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 17.7 % | | Call | 25000.00 | 28/07/2017 | 0.6 | CGRW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170728% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 13.0 % |
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| OCBC Intraday: turning down. | | Pivot: 10.72
Our preference: short positions below 10.72 with targets at 10.59 & 10.52 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 10.72 look for further upside with 10.80 & 10.85 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.
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| | | | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for OCBC |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 9.50 | 13/11/2017 | -0.3 | CGWW | Macquarie Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP MBL EPW171113% | Medium risk | 9.0 % | 10.4 % | | Put | 9.50 | 13/11/2017 | -0.3 | CGWW | Macquarie Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP MBL EPW171113% | Medium risk | 9.0 % | 10.4 % | | Call | 11.20 | 01/12/2017 | 0.4 | CHRW | Macquarie Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP MBL ECW171201% | Medium risk | 9.0 % | 9.4 % | | Call | 10.20 | 13/11/2017 | 0.6 | CGMW | Macquarie Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP MBL ECW171113% | Low risk | 9.0 % | 7.8 % |
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| MA (50) & MA (20): The most simple trend indicators are Moving Averages. They simply correspond to an average calculated on an evolving time scale (20 and 50 periods): every day, the oldest value (often taken at the close) in the average calculus is replaced by the value of the new session.
Bollinger bands: are represented by 3 different bands and are derived from moving averages. The middle band corresponds to a simple moving average (MA (20)). The level of the upper band, in every point, corresponds to the sum of the level of the middle band and twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. Reciprocally, the level of the lower band corresponds to the level of the middle band diminished by twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. An envelop of the stock price is thus determined. This makes it possible to then identify the variation margin in which the stock should stay almost systematically. In the case of a stock following a Gauss law, 95 % of the trades will thus occur between these bands.
RSI (14): the Relative Strength Index aims at establishing a reference scale independently from the stock prices levels themselves. As the RSI has boundaries (0 and 100), it then becomes very easy to determine overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. In addition, just as on prices themselves, supports and resistances can appear, especially when nearing the neutrality zone (near 50). Thus, the RSI is one of the most commonly used counter-trend indicators.
It is based on the average of rises and drops of price, with the formula:
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)]
Where RS represents the average of up closes divided by the average of down closes on the considered period (14). | |
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