| | | | | Commentary | | The Straits Times index fell 0.11% or 3.61pts to 3234.7 (day range: 3242.04 - 3229.59) on Tuesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 3232) and above its 50d MA (@ 3197). 37% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 47% the previous session) and 43% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 47%). Technically, the index remains at levels above the 20-day moving average, which stands firmly above the 50-day one. The level at 3185 still holds firmly as the key support. Meanwhile, the relative strength index continues to stand above the neutrality level of 50, showing a lack of downward momentum for the index. In conclusion, the short-term outlook remains bullish, and the index should be on track to proceed toward the first upside target at 3290. The HSI index rose 0.52% or 134.15pts to 25997.14 (day range: 26019.01 - 25805.02) on Tuesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 25447) and above its 50d MA (@ 24776). 84% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 86% the previous session) and 86% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 86%). Technically, the index is striking against the key pyschological level of 26000 while trading near to the upper Bollinger band. Most technical indicators (moving averages and relative strength index) are well directed, calling for sustainable upward momentum for the index. Above the first upside target at 26350, the index is expected to advance further toward 27000. Meanwhile, the level at 25000 is holding firmly as the key support. |
| Straits Times Intraday: key resistance at 3250.00. | | Pivot: 3250.00
Our preference: short positions below 3250.00 with targets at 3220.00 & 3210.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 3250.00 look for further upside with 3265.00 & 3275.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.
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| | | | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Straits Times |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 3050.00 | 31/08/2017 | -0.4 | CFWW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170831% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 15.2 % | | Put | 3050.00 | 31/08/2017 | -0.4 | CFWW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170831% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 15.2 % | | Call | 3300.00 | 31/08/2017 | 0.3 | CFVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170831% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 7.9 % | | Call | 3300.00 | 31/08/2017 | 0.3 | CFVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170831% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 7.9 % |
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| Hang Seng Intraday: supported by a rising trend line. | | Pivot: 25775
Our preference: long positions above 25775 with targets at 26100 & 26250 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 25775 look for further downside with 25700 & 25580 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.
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| | | | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Hang Seng |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 25800.00 | 28/07/2017 | 0.5 | CGYW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170728% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 18.0 % | | Call | 26400.00 | 30/08/2017 | 0.4 | CHLW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170830% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 16.7 % | | Call | 25000.00 | 28/07/2017 | 0.6 | CGRW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170728% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 13.5 % | | Put | 24688.00 | 28/07/2017 | -0.3 | CHIW | Bank Vontobel | HSI VT EPW170728% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 19.2 % | | Put | 24688.00 | 28/07/2017 | -0.3 | CHIW | Bank Vontobel | HSI VT EPW170728% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 19.2 % | | Put | 24688.00 | 28/07/2017 | -0.3 | CHIW | Bank Vontobel | HSI VT EPW170728% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 19.2 % |
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| OCBC Intraday: further advance. | | Pivot: 10.48
Our preference: long positions above 10.48 with targets at 10.70 & 10.80 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 10.48 look for further downside with 10.33 & 10.22 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.
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| | | | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for OCBC |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 9.50 | 02/10/2017 | 0.7 | CBHW | Macquarie Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP MBL ECW171002% | Low risk | 7.0 % | 5.9 % | | Call | 10.20 | 13/11/2017 | 0.6 | CGMW | Macquarie Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP MBL ECW171113% | Low risk | 9.0 % | 7.4 % | | Put | 9.50 | 13/11/2017 | -0.3 | CGWW | Macquarie Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP MBL EPW171113% | Medium risk | 9.0 % | 10.1 % | | Put | 9.50 | 13/11/2017 | -0.3 | CGWW | Macquarie Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP MBL EPW171113% | Medium risk | 9.0 % | 10.1 % |
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| MA (50) & MA (20): The most simple trend indicators are Moving Averages. They simply correspond to an average calculated on an evolving time scale (20 and 50 periods): every day, the oldest value (often taken at the close) in the average calculus is replaced by the value of the new session.
Bollinger bands: are represented by 3 different bands and are derived from moving averages. The middle band corresponds to a simple moving average (MA (20)). The level of the upper band, in every point, corresponds to the sum of the level of the middle band and twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. Reciprocally, the level of the lower band corresponds to the level of the middle band diminished by twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. An envelop of the stock price is thus determined. This makes it possible to then identify the variation margin in which the stock should stay almost systematically. In the case of a stock following a Gauss law, 95 % of the trades will thus occur between these bands.
RSI (14): the Relative Strength Index aims at establishing a reference scale independently from the stock prices levels themselves. As the RSI has boundaries (0 and 100), it then becomes very easy to determine overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. In addition, just as on prices themselves, supports and resistances can appear, especially when nearing the neutrality zone (near 50). Thus, the RSI is one of the most commonly used counter-trend indicators.
It is based on the average of rises and drops of price, with the formula:
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)]
Where RS represents the average of up closes divided by the average of down closes on the considered period (14). | |
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