| | | | | Commentary | | The Straits Times index dropped 0.23% or 6.98pts to 3089.71 (day range: 3101.18 - 3086.57) on Tuesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 3072) and above its 50d MA (@ 2999). 47% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 53% the previous session) and 77% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 80%). On a daily basis, the index remains above its rising 20-day moving average and lacks downward momentum. The rising 50-day moving average also maintains a bullish bias. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is still above its neutrality area at 50. The ST outlook remains bullish: as long as 3015 is not broken down, further upside is preferred in the short term. The HSI index fell 0.76% or 182.45pts to 23963.63 (day range: 24213.64 - 23909.15) on Tuesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 23509) and above its 50d MA (@ 22840). 81% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 84% the previous session) and 95% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 93%). On the daily chart, the index is expected to pullback, and is likely to test the support of its rising 20-day moving average, which remains above the 50-day one. Meanwhile the relative strength index has broken above a negative trend line, and stays above the neutrality area at 50. To conclude, as long as the index stays above the key support at 23290, expect further bounce toward 24400 (September 2016 high). |
| Straits Times Intraday: under pressure. | | Pivot: 3115.00
Our preference: long positions above 3115.00 with targets at 3075.00 & 3065.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 3115.00 look for further downside with 3130.00 & 3140.00 as targets.
Comment: as long as 3115.00 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
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| | | | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Straits Times |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 2950.00 | 28/04/2017 | -0.3 | CBXW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170428% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 11.2 % | | Put | 2900.00 | 30/06/2017 | -0.3 | CDMW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170630% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 7.9 % | | Call | 3000.00 | 28/04/2017 | 0.6 | CBVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170428% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 11.1 % | | Call | 3050.00 | 30/06/2017 | 0.5 | CDKW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170630% | Low risk | 2500.0 % | 8.7 % |
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| Hang Seng Intraday: under pressure. | | Pivot: 24200
Our preference: short positions below 24200 with targets at 23750 & 23600 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 24200 look for further upside with 24400 & 24500 as targets.
Comment: the RSI shows downside momentum.
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| | | | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Hang Seng |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 22600.00 | 29/05/2017 | -0.3 | CECW | Bank Vontobel | HSI VT EPW170529% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 14.0 % | | Put | 23200.00 | 30/03/2017 | -0.3 | CEOW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170330% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 18.3 % | | Put | 22800.00 | 27/04/2017 | -0.3 | CENW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170427% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 13.9 % | | Call | 24200.00 | 27/04/2017 | 0.5 | CCUW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170427% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 16.0 % | | Call | 23800.00 | 30/03/2017 | 0.5 | CCFW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170330% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 16.5 % | | Call | 23000.00 | 30/03/2017 | 0.7 | CCEW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170330% | Low risk | 1000.0 % | 13.1 % |
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| United Overseas Bank Intraday: further advance. | | Pivot: 21.15
Our preference: long positions above 21.15 with targets at 21.38 & 21.50 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 21.15 look for further downside with 21.00 & 20.87 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
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| | | | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for United Overseas Bank |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 21.00 | 03/07/2017 | 0.5 | CBFW | Macquarie Bank | UNITED OVERSEAS BANK MBL ECW170703% | Low risk | 12.0 % | 7.5 % | | Call | 19.50 | 05/06/2017 | 0.7 | BZYW | Macquarie Bank | UNITED OVERSEAS BANK MBL ECW170605% | Low risk | 12.0 % | 6.9 % | | Put | 19.00 | 03/07/2017 | -0.4 | CBGW | Macquarie Bank | UNITED OVERSEAS BANK MBL EPW170703% | Medium risk | 12.0 % | 12.9 % | | Put | 20.00 | 02/10/2017 | -0.5 | CBQW | Macquarie Bank | UNITED OVERSEAS BANK MBL EPW171002% | Medium risk | 12.0 % | 6.7 % |
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| MA (50) & MA (20): The most simple trend indicators are Moving Averages. They simply correspond to an average calculated on an evolving time scale (20 and 50 periods): every day, the oldest value (often taken at the close) in the average calculus is replaced by the value of the new session.
Bollinger bands: are represented by 3 different bands and are derived from moving averages. The middle band corresponds to a simple moving average (MA (20)). The level of the upper band, in every point, corresponds to the sum of the level of the middle band and twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. Reciprocally, the level of the lower band corresponds to the level of the middle band diminished by twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. An envelop of the stock price is thus determined. This makes it possible to then identify the variation margin in which the stock should stay almost systematically. In the case of a stock following a Gauss law, 95 % of the trades will thus occur between these bands.
RSI (14): the Relative Strength Index aims at establishing a reference scale independently from the stock prices levels themselves. As the RSI has boundaries (0 and 100), it then becomes very easy to determine overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. In addition, just as on prices themselves, supports and resistances can appear, especially when nearing the neutrality zone (near 50). Thus, the RSI is one of the most commonly used counter-trend indicators.
It is based on the average of rises and drops of price, with the formula:
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)]
Where RS represents the average of up closes divided by the average of down closes on the considered period (14). | |
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