| Dear Friend, A lot has happened since I started writing my Thoughts from the Frontline letters. The ‘90s tech boom… then tech bust… 9/11... the subprime crisis, the Great Recession, and a phenomenal decade-plus bull market. Then the COVID-19 pandemic… all concurrent with massive technological, social, and political change. After each of these episodes, people said we were experiencing a “new normal.” I’m beginning to wonder what “normal” even means anymore. I think it’s something different for everyone. But I think we all agree these periods of disruptive change are coming faster now. Certainly, the post-pandemic world won’t look anything like 2019. Then add in the massive government stimulus—coupled with activist central banks and the incredible new technologies popping up left and right—and you’ll get even more disruptive changes, both good and bad. Maybe we should think of the world we are entering as a kind of “permanent abnormal.” The concept of normality in the sense of stability is certainly fluid in the current environment. I actually don’t find that disturbing at all. I think of it as an exciting time to live in. Humanity survives, and there’s been much progress even in the tumult. Certainly, we will once again travel, have dinner at restaurants with friends and family members, and attend business meetings and sporting events. What will not return is the economic, investment, geopolitical, technological, and social environment of our past. It is truly the Age of Transformation. To navigate that transformation, we need maps drawn by visionaries who can help us find clarity in an unclear world. And that’s what the Strategic Investment Conference this year is all about. The SIC 2021 has the most outstanding lineup of the last 18 years. I’ve long said designing conferences is my personal artform. In 2020, the normal constraints of conference building changed dramatically. Because we went virtual, we were able to entice hard-to-get speakers who normally wouldn’t spend two or three days traveling for a one-hour presentation or panel. Someday, SIC will be an in-person event again. But I can promise you that we will never have the broad faculty this year’s SIC will feature. I think, as I go through some of these names, you’ll realize this is the must-attend investment event of the year. In a world where the future is somewhat cloudy, this SIC will add some clarity to your vision. The Shifting World Around Us Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital, a veritable icon in investment circles, has been speaking not just about investments but about real solutions to the deep social and political problems in the US and much of the world. His quarterly letters are epic and brilliant. Just being in the room with him is special. Last year, Dr. Mike Roizen of The Cleveland Clinic put together a panel of experts on COVID-19. They were spectacularly on target. One of the panel members, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, is now the director of the CDC. This year, Mike will lead another panel of medical experts to brief us on the current state of the pandemic. With new US leadership, the geopolitical landscape is shifting as we speak. I have once again persuaded Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group as well as George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures to give us their insights. George will also sit on a China-focused panel with Louis Gave and a rising young powerhouse China expert, Emily de la Bruyère. Political analyst Bruce Mehlman will present the views from Washington, DC, accompanied by one of his always powerful (as well as entertaining) slide presentations. Speaking of leadership, which is another shifting concept: I have asked Jeff Immelt to share his thoughts on the matter. To say his time as head of General Electric was transformative is an understatement. In addition to talking about leadership in a changing world, he will also discuss the economy and new technology (he is now active in many new ventures). Which brings us to David Rubenstein, co-founder of the fabled Carlyle Group. His perch at the top of one of the leading private equity firms in the world gives him unique insight into the global economy, the US economy, and investing. Technology in Transformation It wouldn’t be an SIC if we didn’t have a special emphasis on technology, and this year we’re going all out. Through my network, I was able to talk with Joe Lonsdale, and we instantly clicked. Joe has had a storied career in Silicon Valley, co-founding the intelligence/defense software company Palantir (now a $42 billion market cap). He runs his own venture fund and has started many successful tech companies, including Addepar, a wealth management and analytics company handling over $2 trillion in assets. Part of our conversation was about Palantir moving to Denver, and Joe and much of his firm have recently moved to Austin. During his first week or so, his friends Elon Musk and Michael Dell (among others) dropped by to welcome him to the neighborhood. Prepare to be blown away. This will be the third year we have Karen Harris of Bain & Company. She heads their Macro Trends Group and focuses on transformational technology and culture, as well as economics. She is consistently one of our highest-rated speakers. Cathie Wood, CEO and CIO of Ark Invest, will also return and talk about some of her favorite new disruption technology plays. She and her team, being at the center of the vortex of changing technology, see it all. She will tell us what they are focused on now. Then we are going to switch gears and talk about one of the most important new developments in the coming years: the decentralization of finance, or DeFi. Many of us have been talking about the importance of blockchain technology for a long time. Those predicted changes are now happening and severely disrupting the finance world. Business as usual simply won’t survive. We’ll have two key players of the DeFi world in a discussion with Mark Yusko, who has a deep insight into the whole arena. The Investment Angle And yes, this is a Strategic Investment Conference, so we are going to talk about investments. David Rosenberg (now Rosenberg Research) will once again be the leadoff hitter. Louis Gave will give us his thoughts on the markets and what specific areas we should be focused on. Jared Dillian fans will rejoice when our gifted SIC moderator Ed D’Agostino picks Jared’s brain for his latest insights. He has been red-hot this last year with his market calls and stock picks. Doug Kass will be interviewing Byron Wien (whom he calls the greatest strategist of all time) and Jerry Jordan (whom Doug calls the greatest trader of all time). A meeting of superlatives, no doubt. We’ll have Dr. Lacy Hunt and Jim Bianco in the same session. After their solo presentations, they will compare their views of inflation/deflation, the Federal Reserve, and interest rates. Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory and John Hussman, two of the most thoughtful market and cultural analysts I know, will let us eavesdrop on their conversation. (Note: For a long time, John was noted as a perma-bear because of his analysis of historical data. He has changed that stance completely, and you will find his rationale utterly captivating.) I was going to have Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG, who literally sits in the room with hundreds/thousands of businesses every year, interview a Federal Reserve governor or regional president. She pointed out that she could not do that because KPMG audits the Fed. When I tell you she knows the room, it is a very powerful room. You want to hear her thoughts. I get at least three or four emails a day from Peter Boockvar. Short, pithy, with enormous clarity about the data and events of the day. I regularly pick up the phone to get his thoughts. Like me, you should have your pen and paper ready to take notes when he talks. Liz Ann Sonders is the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. She’s constantly on business TV and is a sought-after speaker—for good reason, because she has a lot to say. Delightfully, we have mutual friends here in Puerto Rico, so we have been able to visit when she is down here. Those are great evenings. We will cover the growing importance of SPACs and their pros and cons in a panel that you don’t want to miss. We’ll also devote time to the powerful opportunities developing in commercial real estate. Everybody knows the housing market is red hot, so we want to hear from Barry Habib, who has won the Zillow award for best mortgage/housing analyst three times in the last five years and the last two running. Ivy Zelman is simply the go-to institutional analyst in this world, and on Barron’s list of the 100 Most Influential Women in US Finance. Last year, they paired up and nailed both interest rates and the surge in home buying. We have to stay on top of this area of the market, and Ivy and Barry are the best at helping us to do so. Then there’s Ron Baron, one of the greatest growth fund investors of the last 40 years. His $45 billion firm specializes in solidly managed small and mid-caps, and he tends to hold his stock for 5–10 years. He just has the gift. His rapid-fire interviews are well-known as he churns out one idea after another. His (and my) good friend David Bahnsen will lead the interview and work to tease out actionable ideas. Once again, Marin Katusa will bring a mining giant to the SIC stage. Marin is one of the most successful natural resource investors and developers, with extremely deep connections. This year, he will interview mining tycoon Sean Roosen of Osisko Gold Royalties. The company’s cornerstone asset is a royalty on the output of the largest gold mine in Canada—but more importantly, it has developed a new low-impact, cyanide-free process that will revolutionize gold mining. On top of an inside look at the future of mining, we’ll also hear about the development of the carbon credit markets. Just like cryptocurrencies, carbon credits are intangible but will be a huge market with lots of opportunities. You need to understand how they impact businesses up and down the scale. What a special privilege it will be to see Felix Zulauf again, one of the all-time great macro investors. He now manages his own money, writes a critical, must-read (if somewhat expensive) monthly letter. Grant Williams will interview him. Felix has also graciously agreed to sit in on the final panel, which means he will need to be up late at night in Switzerland. The last Friday of the conference we will have both Bill White, former BIS chief economist and former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher give us their analysis of the markets, the role of central banks, and how quantitative easing and zero interest rate policy are affecting every aspect of our lives. I am delighted Danielle DiMartino Booth has agreed to interview both of them. She worked with Fisher at the Dallas Fed for years and is good friends with Bill. She knows how to pull out their most important insights. The final panel will be Felix Zulauf, Bill White, and Richard Fisher along with your humble analyst, helping us find that perspective we need in a very fluid “normal” world. I have had the privilege of dining many times with most of the speakers above, and I always walk away with more knowledge than I did when I sat down. Think about this year’s SIC as an invitation to sit at the dinner table with 45+ of the finest minds and nicest people you’ll ever meet. There is even more, but I think I’ve given you enough for today. Don’t procrastinate. Hit the link and register today. When you get to that page, take a minute to look through the speaker list. Imagine being able to sit with them for even a few moments. Realize that you neither have to spend time in airplanes, rental cars, and hotel rooms nor spend many thousands of dollars to attend. It’s a five-day conference, but with built-in breaks—every other day for about five hours with break times, from May 5 through 14. Your virtual SIC 2021 pass ensures that if you miss a session or two, they will be available for you to watch at your convenience later... also perfect if you want to review especially fast-paced or intriguing presentations. Full transcripts will be available shortly after the event, along with presenters’ slides. The presentation technology is state-of-the-art. The faculty is over the top. Nearly every session will have a Q&A period, where you can type in your questions and vote on the questions of others, and the moderator can pick the highest rated questions. You simply do not want to miss this. You really need to be in the virtual room—so let’s make a date to let me help you find clarity in an unclear world. Order your SIC 2021 Pass at a discount now. Your already feeling the electricity in the room analyst, John Mauldin
Co-founder, Mauldin Economics | 