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| Friday, January 8, 2021 |
| This was a heck of a year for rookies, wasn't it? We had a rookie QB finish in the top 12, five in the top 24 at RB and another three in the top 24 at wide receiver. At various other points we had another must-start rookie QB, at least two more viable WRs and no fewer than six starting-caliber running backs. Remember back to preseason, when we were worried that the lack of offseason programs and a normal training camp and preseason would stall the rookies' development? So much for all that. |
| Sure, you had to be patient for some of them, but that patience was well rewarded, and there's a lesson there. We thought this was going to be an especially talented rookie class at the Fantasy relevant positions, especially given where some of the running backs ended up. But some of us -- myself included -- faded many of those rookies because of those concerns. And it's not like they were totally unfounded concerns -- an early-round pick on Cam Akers or J.K. Dobbins left you in a serious hole. |
| The NFL playoffs kick off this week, and some of these rookies will continue building hype with their performances on the big stage. Whether you want to buy that hype is up to you, but you shouldn't ignore it entirely. The playoffs aren't where stars are made, but they can be where stars are revealed. I'd love to see big star turns from J.K. Dobbins, Antonio Gibson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire to help answer some of the lingering questions we've got about them heading into their first offseasons. |
| I'm focusing on the rookie quarterbacks and running backs in today's newsletter, taking a look at how the key names fared in their first taste of action and how I'm viewing them heading into 2021. If you want a sense of where they fall among the rest of their peers at their positions, check out the Fantasy Football Today team's first version of our QB and RB rankings for 2021, and for a longer-term view, Heath's QB and RB Dynasty rankings are here as well. |
| The future is looking bright in the backfields. Here's why: |
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| Rookie Report Card: QB |
Justin Herbert - Grade: A+
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| It's hard to have a better rookie season than Herbert just had. In fact, Cam Newton is the only rookie quarterback ever to outscore Herbert, and only three other players at any position have done it. Herbert set the rookie pass TD record and came up just short of the yardage record. He's the only rookie QB who will have to deal with a new coach and offensive coordinator, so that could complicate things a bit, but that's not enough to impact his spot at the top of these rankings, especially since Herbert proved effective as a runner, adding 234 yards and five touchdowns with his legs. He'll be drafted as a top-12 QB in all leagues. |
Jalen Hurts - Grade: B-
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| Hurts didn't get a ton of opportunities, but he showed enough for Fantasy players to get plenty excited about for the future. In four starts, he averaged 25.5 Fantasy points per game -- and really, that was three and a half starts, since he was pulled at halftime in the fourth. He showed the ability to be a Fantasy difference maker, in large part thanks to his prowess as a runner, and we've seen especially over the past few years how that skill can really help a Fantasy QB stand out. Of course … the fact that he was pulled in the fourth quarter of their final game could be a harbinger of things to come. The Eagles do still have Carson Wentz under contract for a huge cap number in 2021, and there really isn't any easy way for them to get out of that deal, despite his trade demands. The organization may decide it is in its best interest to try to make it work with Wentz, which would leave them in a tough spot with Hurts, who certainly showed enough to be worth a shot at the starting job, and would be a top-12 Fantasy QB for me if he got that shot. |
Joe Burrow - Grade: B+/INC
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| Burrow looked quite good in his 10 starts before the knee injury, but the offense around him still has a long way to go before we can really view him as a must-start option. Coming back from a serious injury that very likely will keep him out of the start of the season won't help matters. However, despite ranking ninth in average intended air yards per target -- how far down the field the intended pass traveled -- Burrow had a relatively low bad-throw rate, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. That combination of aggressiveness without making many mistakes is going to serve Burrow well, and if you get the opportunity to buy low coming off his injury in Dynasty or Keeper leagues, he could prove very valuable in the second half of the 2021 season. |
Tua Tagovailoa - Grade: D
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| I'm inclined to give Tagovailoa the benefit of the doubt for his somewhat uninspiring rookie season, but that also may be because I thought he was the best QB prospect coming into the NFL from this class. Tagovailoa didn't get much help, neither from a banged up receiving corps nor a coaching staff that played far too conservatively with him in the game. On the other hand, despite a relatively short average intended air yards, Tagovailoa had the second-highest bad throw rate in the league. The Dolphins will likely use several of their bounty of picks in this year's draft to upgrade the skill player spots around Tagovailoa, but he'll need to prove himself before he's worth considering for the 2021 season. |
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| Rookie Report Card: RB |
| Jonathan Taylor - Grade: A |
| It didn't always look like he would get there, but Taylor ended up being that must-start Fantasy RB we thought he could be when the Colts drafted him. There were definitely some worries around the mid-way point of the season, but Taylor's rare combination of size and speed ended up pairing perfectly with a Colts team that sports a strong line and defense. There are some questions about whether Philip Rivers will return and what that might mean for Taylor, who would benefit even more from a larger role in the passing game. Over the last six games of the season, Taylor averaged 24.3 PPR points per game with just a 37-catch 16-game pace. If he could get to 50 catches next season, Taylor might be a top-five back. |
| James Robinson - Grade: A |
| It's entirely possible we'll end up viewing Robinson as a one-year wonder, but it's much too premature to say for sure -- though some will undoubtedly do so. Robinson will be penalized in some eyes for the perception that he struggled to close the season, but that wasn't really the case; he had at least 11 PPR points in each of his final five games while averaging 17.5 in that stretch. He missed the final two games with an injury, but still managed to finish with 1,414 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 14 games. The Jaguars will be bringing in a new coaching staff and front office, and it's entirely possible Robinson falls out of favor, but let's let that play out before we write him off after a rookie season like that. |
| Antonio Gibson - Grade: B+ |
| The optimistic way to look at Gibson's rookie season is like this: We already knew the converted wide receiver could be a playmaker in the passing game, so the fact that Washington made him much more of a focal point in the running game is a great sign for his future. Gibson was very impressive as a runner and that was the part of his game that was supposed to take longer to develop. If he enters 2021 established as a lead runner and can get to a 50-60 catch role -- which seems entirely plausible -- he may be a borderline first-round pick this summer. |
| D'Andre Swift - Grade: B |
| This year's crop of rookie class was kind of snake-bitten this season; at the very least, they had some rotten collective luck. Swift finally earned his first start in Week 10 and looked like he was going to be a second-half league winner, totaling 149 yards and a touchdown in a win over Washington that week. Unfortunately, we didn't see him again until Week 14 due to a concussion and he had more than 12 carries just once over the final four weeks of the season. Still, from Week 10 on, he averaged 17.6 PPR points per game despite those limitations. Swift had at least three catches in all but one game, and that's where he really might stand out. The Lions are in for an offseason of turmoil, but Swift could be in line for a massive second season as a three-down back. |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Grade: C |
| No back landed in a better situation than Edwards-Helaire, a first-round pick joining an elite offense with essentially no real competition for touches, but he just … didn't impress. He rushed for more than 69 yards three times all season and was frustratingly inconsistent as a pass catcher, too. The worst harbinger might be that the Chiefs brought in Le'Veon Bell midseason to provide another option in the running game. Sure, they didn't use him much, but the fact they felt like they needed him doesn't bode well for Edwards-Helaire's chances of earning the kind of every-down role we want to see him in. Especially with Damien Williams returning from his opt out. Edwards-Helaire still has the potential to be a high end Fantasy option in this offense, but the future looks a lot cloudier now than it did at the beginning of the season. |
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| J.K. Dobbins - Grade: B+ |
| Dobbins came largely as advertised. He's a dynamic playmaker who made the most of his opportunities, rushing for a whopping 6.0 yards per carry and scoring nine times on 134 rushes. His skill set, combined with Lamar Jackson's rushing abilities, will create plenty of opportunities for scoring and should continue to allow him to be an incredibly efficient rusher. The problem is, the Ravens haven't given any back more than 205 carries in either of the past two seasons and they've thrown just 101 targets to their backs in two combined seasons with Jackson at QB. That doesn't mean Dobbins won't earn more carries or targets, but the way the Ravens have operated in recent years suggests he might have a hard time joining the upper echelon of running backs. |
| Cam Akers - Grade: C |
| Akers is another back from this class who just had bad luck. It took until Week 13, but he became the Todd Gurley replacement we hoped he would be for the Rams, dominating work down the stretch and averaging 21.5 carries and two receptions per game over his last four. However, an ankle injury kept him out of your lineups in Week 16, and it probably limited his effectiveness down the stretch, too. For most of the season, Akers was stuck in a three-way split, but the Rams have shown they want to use one running back when they have one who is worth it, so Akers should have a chance to have a significant role in 2021. I would be even more excited about him if the Rams had thrown more than 71 targets to their three primary backs combined. |
| Zack Moss - Grade: C- |
| There was probably an opportunity for Moss to take a larger role, he just never differentiated himself. Early on, it looked like he might at least have a goal-line role, but that highlights the issue with the spot Moss finds himself in: He's splitting carries in an offense that doesn't create much running back production. The Bills threw just 68 passes to Moss and Devin Singletary, and that duo combined for just six rushing touchdowns. Josh Allen is a good QB, but he's not the kind you want to play next to as a running back. |
| Joshua Kelley - Grade: D |
| Kelley really couldn't have asked for a better opportunity. He got 12 carries in the first game and 23 in the second, and he sure liked like he was stepping into the Melvin Gordon role. However, he had just 64 yards rushing in that second game and would never get more than 12 carries again in a game. Kelley finished his rookie season with just 354 yards on his 111 carries and saw the likes of Justin Jackson and Kalen Ballege overtake him for playing time. There's always next year, obviously, but this was an inauspicious start for a guy who would always have something to prove. |
| A.J. Dillon - Grade: INC |
| We didn't see much of him -- Dillon had just one game with more than five carries -- but we saw enough to get very excited. In Week 16 against the Titans, Dillon did his best Derrick Henry impersonation, rushing for 124 yards and a pair of scores on 21 carries. There really isn't much question as to whether he can be effective; the question is whether he'll have consistent opportunities. All he needs is one of Jamaal Williams or Aaron Jones to leave as a free agent and he'll be in the No. 2 RB conversation. |
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