Monday, 8 May 2023

By Brian Chu Editor, Fat Tail Commodities

[4 min read]

Dear Reader,

Many Australians who live in NSW and VIC just experienced an exceptionally cold weekend. Temperatures plummeted by sunset on Saturday, and many woke up to a chilly morning yesterday. Even as the Sun came out, it felt as though winter had arrived early.

Where I live up in the NSW Southern Highlands, the mercury plummeted to just 1°C at 3:00am, with the maximum for the day being 11°C.

Yesterday’s weather may portend conditions this winter. Some places may see snow falling for the first time in years.

Times like these make me thankful that we live with modern technology such as central heating, electric blankets, and heated lights in the bathroom.

But there’s one niggly issue plaguing my mind…how can our national power grid and gas pipelines put up with this coming winter?

As many are aware, since the Albanese Government came into power in last year’s election, we’ve seen increasing power bills amidst plans to phase out fossil fuels. There’s also been several cases of sporadic power outages due to extreme weather.

Although the initial plans to speedily shut down our coal and gas power plants are now on ice, the rising cost of electricity and gas will prevail for some time. That’s until the world steers away from the insanity of trying to shift the world to green energy without fossil fuels.

Energy costs aside, Australia and many developed nations have a rather outdated electricity grid. As much as society has advanced in many aspects, even using artificial intelligence to augment our daily living, our power lines and poles are outdated. Should society shift to full electrification, you can imagine how the current technology won’t be able to deal with the increased load and reach.

It’d be the same as running our fourth and fifth generation telecommunications on telephone wires: it doesn’t work.

What we’re currently facing is a society that’s hopping onto what sounds like a good idea, but there’s plenty of work that needs doing before we can get there.

Inconsistencies and logical flaws beneath a shiny cover

Climate change and the green energy agenda are currently dominating social, technological, and economic discourse. I get how many are made to believe it is an existential crisis, despite controversies over its validity (the literature is built upon strident rhetoric rather than the sound scientific principles and statistical data).

Some global thinktanks have presented a purported solution, though it involves spending trillions of dollars without knowing what it’ll achieve (check out this recent exchange in the US Senate hearing between Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) and the Deputy Energy Secretary David Turk).

All this talk of electric vehicles sounds great as a cover story. But there are so many things that need proper thought before we run headfirst to formulate a strategy.

When you think carefully about it, many things don’t add up.

Firstly, fossil fuels are responsible for producing no less than 80% of the world’s energy output. Depending on the source you quote, the range varies from 70–85%. Over the last five years, the world has only managed to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels by 3%.

Secondly, we’re plugged into a system that was built decades ago, and electric vehicles add to the demand load on that system. That’s going to place more strain on a pre-existing problem. So it’s logical to argue that we can reduce the strain on our power grid by having more vehicles that are powered internally (fossil fuels, hydrogen, etc.)!

Thirdly, the transition towards more electric vehicles requires more metals and natural resources than the conventional petrol-powered vehicles. So while proponents of this green energy agenda may argue that replacing petrol-powered vehicles will save the environment, an increased demand for natural resources means more mining activity…that those same proponents believe are detrimental to the environment. It’s inherently contradictory.

Now, I want you to take a step back from these inconsistencies and absurdities to look at an even bigger issue.

The electrification of society is much more than lithium batteries and electric vehicles. It relates back to a centralised society with a government-issued digital currency, artificial intelligence replacing humans in various jobs, and the use of carbon credits to influence consumption.

That’s why it’s called an agenda. And I’m not making this up either. I’ve discussed how the World Economic Forum is fully behind this agenda and the biggest spruikers have fragrantly lived the contrary to what they preach.

It’s clear that this agenda splits the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots’. It’s about control.

If they can’t eat their own cooking, you shouldn’t either!

Getting ahead of the crowd to profit from the future shift

I’ve recently shared my optimism that most of us will outlive the World Economic Forum’s green agenda, even seeing its demise.

I don’t believe that they’ll succeed in forcing us to live in 15-minute cities, use government digital currencies, eat bugs, and have a limited spend on consumer goods to minimise our carbon footprint.

These are too odious for a sane person to accept.

The silent majority are clearly speaking loudly with their wallets, as many corporations that’ve adopted unpopular stances on woke ideology are punished with plummeting sales figures. Just look at what happened to Disney, Bed, Bath and Beyond, Anheuser-Busch, BuzzFeed, and Vice.

It’s only a matter of time before the World Economic Forum turns around or falls on its own sword.

That said, we’ll see society move towards electrification and develop its energy and digital technology. It’s something that we ought to have done decades ago.

An advanced society should see the cost of energy go the same way as mobile phones and computers. Improving technology and efficiency should see more supply and upgrades, leading to lower prices.

To achieve that, there’ll be an increased need for natural resources.

The problem is that many critical minerals come from a few countries around the world. A lot of countries with such deposits are being prevented from development, arising from government restrictions and local NIMBY’s (Not in My Backyard) standing in the way.

It’s changing slowly now — think about recent discoveries of lithium, cobalt, and rare earth springing up recently in Australia.

When the Liberal/Globalist Order falls (yes, I’m seeing it happening), countries will finally start focusing on themselves rather than being busybodies with what’s going on thousands of kilometres away. Then we’ll hear more stories of massive mineral finds in all corners of the world.

But discoveries are one thing…the path to production takes many years. Even fewer discoveries eventuate into a mining operation.

Meanwhile, there’s one critical metal for which supply is in dire straits.

What is it?

Why not hear what my colleague, James Cooper, has to say about it? Stay tuned as he’s got an important announcement to make later this week…

God bless,

Brian Chu,
Editor, Fat Tail Commodities