Refi Demand Near Long-Term Lows, But Purchases Remain Resilient

For most of 2010 through the middle of 2013, the purchase mortgage market languished as homebuyers were reluctant to come back to the table after the expiration of homebuyer tax credits. There was also still a fair amount of uncertainty in the wake of the Financial Crisis. At the same time, rates were plunging progressively to all-time lows by the middle of 2012. Refinance demand soared as a result. Purchases advanced slowly and steadily starting in 2015, ultimately topping out in early 2021. This coincided with another surge in refi demand as rates hit new all-time lows. Ever since the once-in-a-generation rate spike seen so far in 2022, logical things have happened to refi demand. The most recent weekly application survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) shows it falling to new long-term lows, now nearly back to 2018 territory. If apps fall below 2018's lows, we'd have to back more than 20 years to see lower refi demand. Purchase demand, on the other hand, remains in decent territory. Here's the same chart with a wider field of view showing the refi boom in 2010-2013 while purchases languished, and the purchase market of 2018 while refis languished. Other highlights from this week's application data: Refi index down 15 percent week-over-week Purchase index up 1 percent week-over-week Rates jumped to 3+ year highs Refi share of total apps = 40.6% vs 44.8% last week No major change to FHA or VA share of apps at 9.3 and 9.5% respectively conventional conforming 30yr fixed rate = 4.80% vs 4.50% last week Jumbo rates up to 4.40% from 4.11% last week.

March 30, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Refi Demand Near Long-Term Lows, But Purchases Remain Resilient For most of 2010 through the middle of 2013, the purchase mortgage market languished as homebuyers were reluctant to come back to the table after the expiration of homebuyer tax credits. There was also still a fair amount of uncertainty in the ... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Best Mortgage Rate Winning Streak in Weeks There hasn't been much to get excited about when it comes to mortgage rates in the month of March--at least not in a positive way. Negative excitement has been in no short supply, however, as the average 30yr fixed rate effectively hit 5% on Fr... (read more) MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: Yields Bounce Back Nicely, Ending Lower For 2nd Straight Day Yields Bounce Back Nicely, Ending Lower For 2nd Straight Day Back to back rally days are a rarity in March. It happened one other time right at the beginning of the month and that required a frenzi... (read more) Rob Chrisman Non-Agency, TPO, Pre-approval, Compliance, CRM Products; Dallas Fed on Housing; FINRA Rule 4210 Update As we edge toward Easter, which isn’t until April 17 this year, the Dallas Fed has released a report on housing prices… have they become unhinged from fundamentals? Those crafty food scientists have been at work creating Black Jelly Bean Spiced Maple... (read more) Mortgage Rates Best Mortgage Rate Winning Streak in Weeks 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 4.79% -0.09% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 4.79% -0.09 0.40 15 Yr. Fixed 4.15% -0.07 0.40 30 Yr. FHA 4.38% -0.06 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.15% -0.04 0.00 5/1 ARM 3.92% -0.03 0.50 Updates Daily - Last Update: 3/30 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 4.15% -0.07% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 4.42% +0.26 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 3.63% +0.24 0.80 5/1 Yr. ARM 3.36% +0.17 0.30 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 3/24 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 4.80% +0.30 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 4.01% +0.25 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.40% +0.29 0.44 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 3/30 MBS / Treasuries MBS Live Recap: Yields Bounce Back Nicely, Ending Lower For 2nd Straight Day UMBS 30YR 4.0 102.03 +0.16 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 4.0 102.03 +0.16 UMBS 4.5 103.50 +0.11 GNMA 4.0 101.89 +0.05 GNMA 4.5 102.97 -0.16 Pricing as of: 3/30 5:21PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 2.3542 -0.0438 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 2.314 -0.058 5 YR Treasury 2.442 -0.060 7 YR Treasury 2.434 -0.054 10 YR Treasury 2.354 -0.044 30 YR Treasury 2.479 -0.024 Pricing as of: 3/30 5:21PM EST Latest Video The Fed needs to hike interest rates more than what the market expects, say... The 2pm Bond Report - March 30, 2022 The 9am Bond Report - March 30, 2022 Private payrolls rise by 455,000 in March, slightly higher than estimates: ... Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in January and a look at "Affordability" CNBC Investors believe the biggest threat to the markets now is a Fed misstep, CNBC survey shows CNBC Home prices heated up to start the year, with huge surges in Arizona and Florida, says S&P Case-Shiller report Calculated Risk Blog Q4 GDP Growth Revised down to 6.9% Annual Rate CNBC When will consumer inflation breaking point be reached? Here is what the market is monitoring Marketwatch Fed’s Harker open to half-point rate hike and more aggressive effort to fight inflation CNBC Companies added 455,000 jobs in March, slightly more than expected, ADP says Eye on Housing Consumer Confidence Rebounds in March Despite Inflation Concerns Reuters Oil rebounds on tight supply, prospects of new Russia sanctions Realtor.com Is the 2022 Housing Market Immune to the Latest COVID-19 Variant? Realtor.com Cant Afford a Down Payment? Rent-to-Own Companies Promise To Help, but Are They Worth the Risk? Eye on Housing Steady Number of Open Construction Jobs Reuters U.S. Senate to vote Tuesday to advance Cook's Fed nomination

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