Record-Setting Drop in Builder Confidence in July

The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) released it's Housing Market Index (HMI) for July this morning. This measure of builder confidence fell to 55 from last month's 67, well short of the 65 median forecast. The "prospective buyer" category led the charge, falling to 37 from 48 in June. While neither index is anywhere near record lows, this was the biggest month-over-month drop on record (apart from the April 2020 reading which should arguably be thrown out as the survey hit at peak lockdown). Does this mean the housing market is doomed to a worse fate than that seen in 2007/08? A different version of the same chart helps answer that question. This time around, the chart shows the change in confidence compared to the same month 3 years in the past. This does a much better job of showing boom/bust cycles in housing. While housing is by no means facing the same headwinds that led up to the financial crisis, it's definitely cooling off rapidly. It also remains to be seen how that cooling resolves itself. If rates and inflation have peaked in 2022, this sort of contraction could end up looking more like a normalization that resets the board for a more stable housing market in 2023.

July 18, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Record-Setting Drop in Builder Confidence in July The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) released it's Housing Market Index (HMI) for July this morning. This measure of builder confidence fell to 55 from last month's 67, well short of the 65 median forecast. The "prospective buyer" ca... (read more) Rob Chrisman Fraud, Home Equity, Non-QM, Reno Products; Wholesale Updates Everyone is watching the value of their 401(k) plan go down. You should be watching it go down from “across the pond,” sitting at a sidewalk café in Paris. Anyone traveling in Europe is rejoicing at the exchange rate: Things are more affordable for A... (read more) Mortgage Rates Fed Talking About Big Rate Hikes, But Mortgage Rates Moved Lower 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.73% +0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 5.73% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 4.98% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.25% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.82% +0.02 0.00 5/1 ARM 5.41% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.30% +0.01 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/18 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 4.98% +0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 5.30% -0.40 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 4.45% -0.38 0.80 5/1 Yr. ARM 4.19% -0.31 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/7 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 5.74% -0.10 0.65 15 Yr. Fixed 4.96% -0.10 0.68 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.28% -0.14 0.44 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/6 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 4.5 100.09 -0.16 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 4.5 100.09 -0.16 UMBS 5.0 101.41 -0.19 GNMA 4.5 100.75 -0.17 GNMA 5.0 102.08 -0.13 Pricing as of: 7/18 5:21PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 2.9911 +0.0630 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.174 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.106 +0.058 7 YR Treasury 3.093 +0.064 10 YR Treasury 2.991 +0.063 30 YR Treasury 3.163 +0.072 Pricing as of: 7/18 5:21PM EST Latest Video Homebuilder sentiment drops 12 points The 9am Bond Report - July 18, 2022 Home inventory has grown 28% since last year as sellers cut sales prices The 2pm Bond Report - July 15, 2022 Around the Web Realtor.com Im the Chief Economist at Realtor.com. These Are the 4 Things You Need To Know About the Housing Market Now Calculated Risk Blog 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in June, Sales Down Sharply, Inventory "Surged" CNBC A double whammy': Consumers are feeling the pain of rising interest rates and ballooning credit card debt, economist says CNBC Homebuilder sentiment plunges in July as buyers pull back Calculated Risk Blog Housing Inventory July 18th Update: Up 30% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Five High Frequency Indicators for the Economy Calculated Risk Blog Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June CNBC Treasury yields rise as curve remains inverted, with investors watching the Fed Wells Fargo Michigan Sentiment Completes Data Trifecta: Inflation Expectations Down Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Forecasts: Slightly Negative Eye on Housing Slowdown in Single-Family Permits in May 2022 The Basis Point Are companies using inflation as excuse to raise prices more than necessary? Not really. Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Decreased 0.2 Percent in June

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