A U.S. recession is all but officially under way. The speed at which the economy has ground to a halt has rendered most traditional economic data outdated before it’s published. To fill the gap, Bloomberg economists Eliza Winger and Tom Orlik created a weekly dashboard of high frequency, alternative and market-based indicators. Right now, the dashboard shows the depths of the downturn. In the weeks ahead—as states move toward re-opening—it should capture the strength of the recovery. —Josh Petri Bloomberg is mapping the pandemic globally and across America. For the latest news, sign up for our Covid-19 podcast and daily newsletter. Here are today’s top storiesScientists created an antibody that can defeat the new coronavirus in the lab, an early but promising step in efforts to find treatments and curb the pandemic’s spread. The death count from the virus, meanwhile, continues to climb, approaching 250,000 worldwide. U.S. President Donald Trump continues to press states to reopen, even as he acknowledged that the loss of life would likely be higher than he had predicted. An internal government projection shows the U.S. outbreak vastly accelerating by June to more than 200,000 new cases and 2,500 deaths per day. Here’s the latest. Trump has failed in multiple ways to lead an effective fight against the coronavirus, write Michael R. Bloomberg and Gina McCarthy in Bloomberg Opinion. Among the most troubling is his push to loosen regulations meant to limit air pollution while the nation’s attention is focused on the pandemic. The Fed’s emergency rescue of the U.S. mortgage market caught lenders by surprise, upending hedges with $5 billion in margin calls before the central bank eased off. U.S. airline stocks plummeted Monday after Warren Buffett dumped his stakes in the four biggest carriers, saying the industry’s prospects had been damaged by the coronavirus. Carnival plans to resume sailing on Aug. 1, becoming the first major cruise operator in the Americas to outline a return to operations after coronavirus outbreaks on several ships shuttered the industry. J. Crew filed for bankruptcy, crushed by debt and unable to revive its preppy clothing line amid the pandemic. While the retailer’s struggle pre-dated the outbreak, it’s the first major retailer to go bankrupt during the ensuing economic shutdown. But it likely won’t be the last: Neiman Marcus and J.C. Penney could be days away from default. And while it’s only May, investors are already preparing for a holiday shopping season filled with lumps of coal. What’s Joe Weisenthal thinking about? The Bloomberg news director says investors have primarily rewarded larger companies over small ones during the current crisis. You can see that in the performance of the S&P 500 (large caps) versus the S&P 600 (small caps). While competition and bankruptcy are an important part of a robust economic system, there’s nothing particularly good about a general collapse, which as the market shows, doesn’t reward better companies per se, Joe says. It just rewards bigger. What you’ll need to know tomorrowThe bad start to May is a sign of things to come for markets.Get ready for a tsunami of pandemic lawsuits.U.S. Senate won’t release Biden files after assault claim.Senior Amazon engineer quits, forfeits $1 million to protest firings.Nuclear power is getting crushed by renewables and the pandemic.Ultra-rich families with cash on hand are piling into private debt.Elon Musk puts two homes on market after vow to sell possessions.What you’ll want to read tonightNationally, about one-fifth of all Americans who have died from the virus had been in nursing homes. At veterans’ nursing facilities, there is an additional layer of sorrow. These homes arethe last post for American servicemen and women who are no longer able to care for themselves. Willing to die for their country, many of these former soldiers, sailors and marines are meeting their end bereft not only of the comfort of loved ones, but the dignity and timely military funeral rites that are their due.Like Bloomberg’s Evening Briefing? Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Sign up for the Bloomberg Recession Tracker: Bloomberg Economics crunches the numbers every month using our proprietary model to reveal the probability of a downturn over the next year. We’ll deliver an updated assessment of all relevant indicators, directly to your inbox. This free newsletter includes analysis showing whether recession risk is increasing or decreasing, with comparisons to the past month’s performance as well as previous recessions. Sign up here. Download the Bloomberg app: It’s available for iOS and Android. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. Learn more. | 