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| Friday, October 6, 2023 |
| Pour one out for the folks who dropped Justin Fields after Week 3. |
| Also, if you have anything left, maybe pour one out for Fantasy analysts like me who didn't draft D.J. Moore this season. Suddenly, that looks like one of the worst decisions I could have made. |
| Moore finished Thursday's game against the Commanders with eight catches, 230 yards, and three touchdowns, good for 49 PPR points, a massive number. It makes him the fifth player already this season with 45-plus PPR points in a game, which is now tied for the eighth-most in a season -- and Week 5 just started. For comparison's sake, there were only three games of 45-plus points all of last season. |
| The Bears suddenly look pretty formidable on offense, having dropped 71 points over their past two games, and with a stretch coming up against the Vikings, Raiders, and Chargers over the next three weeks that could make you forget all about their slow start. |
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| It's an important reminder not to totally overreact to small-sample outliers at this point in the season. The Bears looked totally hapless after three weeks, but now Justin Fields is averaging 24.6 points in six-point-per-pass-TD leagues, while Moore is at 22.0 in PPR scoring, better than what even his most enthusiastic boosters likely expected. The NFL season is long and full of ups and downs. |
| I have a few more thoughts on last night's game to kick off tonight's newsletter, before we get to some DFS and prop picks for this weekend's games. Before we get to that, here's everything the FFT team has for you this week to help set your lineup: |
Week 5 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: QB | RB | WRStarts & Sits, Sleepers & Busts: Dave Richard's Week 5 PreviewWeek 5 Position Previews: QB | RB | WR | TE
Jamey, Dave, Heath's RankingsMy Week 5 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TECheat Sheets: PPR | Non-PPR |
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| TNF recap: Bears 40, Commanders 20 |
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| The big takeaway: Reports of the Bears' demise were, seemingly, greatly exaggerated. I mean, sure, they just won their first game in nearly a calendar year, so this team probably still isn't going anywhere. But they've shown real life over the past few weeks, after looking D.O.A. through the first three games. One thing we'll need to watch heading into Week 6 is the status of Roschon Johnson, who left the game with a concussion), and Khalil Herbert, who suffered an ankle injury. Reports of D'Onta Foreman's demise may have been greatly exaggerated as well. Winner: Justin Fields. You could really go with either Fields or Moore here, but I still think Fields is likelier to be an elite Fantasy option moving forward. Moore was incredible Thursday night, but he also turned 10 targets into 49 PPR points, which obviously isn't sustainable, even for a great player like Moore. However, the last few weeks have been a good reminder that Moore is a great player, the kind who can do something like take a bad angle by a defensive back and turn it into a 58-yard touchdown. I still think the way to play this combo is to assume Moore will elevate Fields as a passer to make him an elite option, while Moore's realistic ceiling is more like a high-end, but maybe frustrating WR2. He's been more than that so far thanks to a few huge games lately, so there might be a sell window here, but Fields looks like the must-start guy we hoped he would be. Loser: Jahan Dotson/Terry McLaurin. There was a lot of chatter about how Eric Bienemy would have this Commanders offense looking like the Chiefs offense he was such a key part of, and unfortunately for McLaurin and Dotson, that's been exactly right. McLaurin and Dotson combined for just a 19.6% target share Thursday, putting up 79 yards between them on seven catches in a game where the Commanders threw 51 times. The running backs combined for 10 targets, while the tight ends had 14, which is a lot, to be sure. But the bigger issue here is that WRs not named "Jahan" or "Terry" had 14. The passing game should be more concentrated when they aren't dropping back to pass 66 times, but the Commanders have been spreading the ball around all season, to McLaurin and Dotson's detriment. I wouldn't drop either, but it's going to be tough to trust either moving forward at this point. |
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| Top DFS picks |
| Before you read my rankings, make sure you head over to SportsLine, where Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs have their rankings and top plays available to peruse at your leisure. They'll help you out quite a bit. |
| Based on my projections and analysis for Week 5, here are my top stack targets and my favorite plays at each position, with an eye on tournament plays: |
| Top Stacks |
| Chiefs @MINVikings vs. KCJets @DEN |
| The Chiefs-Vikings game doesn't just have the highest over/under of the week -- the Chiefs are 4-point favorites and have the seventh-highest implied point total of any team this week. There are going to be a lot of highly-rostered players from this game, but there are also going to be a bunch of points, so it might make sense to pair a Kirk Cousins-Justin Jefferson stack with someone like K.J. Osborne. He's hit on a few big-plays, and he's the cheaper passing-game alternative than the likes of TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison. On the Chiefs side, putting Jerick McKinnon in there might make some sense -- he tends to benefit from more pass-heavy scripts, which is what we should get here as long as the Vikings can keep up. |
| Top QBs |
| DraftKings |
| Matthew Stafford vs. PHI $5600Kirk Cousins vs. KC $6900 Daniel Jones @MIA $5800 |
| Stafford has played a lot better than his Fantasy numbers would make you think so far, in no small part because the Rams have had six touchdowns of 7 yards or less on the ground so far. With Cooper Kupp potentially making his return this week, I'm willing to save a few bucks on either site to play Stafford, and a Stafford-Puka Nacua stack might be somewhat overlooked given Kupp's return and the tough matchup. I'll take the pass volume the Rams have shown and bet on some touchdown regression coming Stafford's way. |
| FanDuel |
| Matthew Stafford vs. PHI $6800Kirk Cousins vs. KC $7600Patrick Mahomes @MIN $9200 |
| If I'm not going with Stafford, I want one of the two QBs in that Chiefs-Vikings matchup. A Cousins-centric stack is a fairly straightforward affair -- you pair him with Justin Jefferson and then decide if you want to spend up on T.J. Hockenson, save a little with Jordan Addison, or save a lot for a longer shot with Osborn. The nice thing is, all three of the alternatives are coming off quiet games, so they might have lower roster rates than they otherwise would. |
| Top RBs |
| DraftKings |
| Alvin Kamara @NE $6300D'Andre Swift @LAR $6000 Dameon Pierce @ATL $5300Rhamondre Stevenson vs. NO $5600 Miles Sanders @DET $5200 |
| One thing you can see here is how much I weigh expected role over recent production. Pierce, Stevenson, and Sanders have all struggled this season, but they all have valuable roles that just haven't worked out for them yet. Maybe they never will, but I think it makes sense to try to save some money at RB with guys who have both solid passing game roles and good projected goal-line usage if their teams can create the opportunities for them. The bottom three here all figure to be pretty low roster rate guys, and make for nice pivots if you want to differentiate yourself and spend up at other positions. |
| FanDuel |
| Alvin Kamara @NE $7100Rhamondre Stevenson vs. NO $6100Joe Mixon @ARI $7000Miles Sanders @DET $6100Dameon Pierce @ATL $6200 |
| This feels like a Mixon game, to me. The Bengals offense has been a mess, but Mixon has a terrific matchup on the way, against a Cardinals defense that has allowed the third-most Fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Bengals should be able to avoid getting blown out in this one, so Mixon should be good for 15-20 carries, and I'm betting he sees more targets after his passing game role has shrunk the past few weeks -- he still ran routes on 54% of drobbacks in Week 4, while neither of the other backs got even to 12%. Mixon is due for one of those random multi-touchdown games, and I think the Bengals make him a priority this week to help take the pressure off a struggling Joe Burrow |
| Top WRs |
| DraftKings |
| Michael Thomas @NE $4900Rashee Rice @MIN $3600 Adam Thielen @DET $5100Tank Dell @ATL $4800Justin Jefferson vs. KC $9400 |
| Dell took a back seat to Nico Collins last week, but I still love the role he has in this offense -- he ran a route on 87% of dropbacks last week, which was actually ahead of Collins. It was a quiet game, but there's still big upside here, as he's shown the ability to earn targets in the intermediate game or with a deep shot here and there. He and Collins are both top-30 options for me this week at WR, but Dell is $800 cheaper here. |
| Rice is the name that might jump out to you, because we just haven't seen very much from him yet. He's earning targets at a high rate on a per-route basis, and had five in an abnormally low pass-volume game for the Chiefs offense last week. He's still hovering around 50% route participation, but I think he's the best hope for emerging from the glob that is the Chiefs receiving corps. In a projected shootout, I like taking a chance on him seeing a few more opportunities this week. |
| FanDuel |
| Justin Jefferson vs. KC $9200Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. CAR $7700Robert Woods @ATL $5000 Chris Olave @NE $7100Michael Thomas @NE $5700 |
| Even with a tough matchup against the Patriots on the way, I like betting on a bounceback for the Saints receivers. Thomas hasn't shown much juice, but the volume has been awesome -- he's on pace for 140 targets, with at least eight in three of four games. Derek Carr couldn't do anything down the field last week -- he was just 4 for 16 on passes more than 5 yards down the field last week, a disastrous mark. I'm betting he'll be better with another week removed from the shoulder injury, and Olave still had a ton of air yards last week. This passing game still has upside, and the ugly results a week ago will likely scare plenty of folks off. |
| Top TEs |
| DraftKings |
| Zach Ertz vs. CIN $3500Dallas Goedert @LAR $4200 Tyler Higbee vs. PHI $4100 |
| Goedert is another example of my "trust the process" approach to projections. He's been awful, there's no way around it, with just 88 yards through four games. However, with the exception of a weird Week 1 where he had just one target, his usage has generally been fine, with 18 targets over the past three games, actually a bit north of his pace from the previous two games. He's even seeing a slightly higher average depth of target than he had last season, so you can't blame his lack of efficiency on a significantly diminished role. That makes me think he's going to end up just fine, and his price is severely depressed right now. I'm buying the dip. |
| FanDuel |
Travis Kelce @MIN $8789
Dallas Goedert @LAR $5500Zach Ertz vs. CIN $5100 |
| Kelce is No. 87; Taylor Swift has an album called 1989. Someone at FanDuel is clearly a Swiftie. |
| Sample DraftKings lineup |
| QB Kirk Cousins $6900RB Joe Mixon $6400RB Jerick McKinnon $4900WR Justin Jefferson $9400WR Garrett Wilson $6000WR Rashee Rice $3600 TE Dallas Goedert $4200FLEX Adam Thielen $5100DST Jets $3100 |
| One name here that I haven't mentioned yet is Garrett Wilson's. I'm less bullish on the Jets offense having a guaranteed big game than my colleagues this week, because I tend to be just a bit more skeptical about the value of matchups. They matter, yes, but especially this early in the season, it can be easy to overstate just how good or bad any given defense actually is -- at this point last season, the Seahawks were allowing 9.0 yards per pass attempt and had allowed the second-most points in the league; they ended up 14th in yards per attempt allowed and were just 17th in points allowed the rest of the way. Still, I can see the case for Wilson as a boom-or-bust option, ideal for a tournament lineup. |
| Sample FanDuel lineup |
| QB Kirk Cousins $7600RB Miles Sanders $6100RB Dameon Pierce $6200WR Justin Jefferson $9200WR Jordan Addison $5900WR Tyreek Hill $9400 TE Dallas Goedert $5500FLEX DeAndre Hopkins $6100DST Saints $4000 |
| I've got that Chiefs stack in there, and I saved enough money at a few spots to bet on a Tyreek Hill bounce-back game. Goedert is one of those money-saving options I went with, as is DeAndre Hopkins, who hasn't quite had a big game yet, but came within about an inch and a half of one last week when Ryan Tannehill just barely overthrew him, and he had another catch inside the 10-yard line that nearly turned into a score, too. He's not as washed up as some might think. |
| Some player props I like |
| Head over to SportsLine to check out Alex Selesnick's (aka PropStarz) prop picks. Here are some props I like this week: |
| Trevor Lawrence OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns +106 |
| I had Lawrence over 1.5 touchdowns last week, and he ended up with one, the third time the under here has hit in four games; he has just three touchdowns in 3.5 games since halftime of Week 1 now. It's been a frustrating start to the season, and obviously the matchup against the Bills isn't ideal. But Lawrence has also had a ton of close calls on touchdowns -- multiple drops or situations where receivers only got one foot down in the end zone. He's due. |
| Jaylen Waddle OVER 62.5 receiving yards -115 |
| It's been a weird season for Waddle, who doesn't have more than six targets in any game this season and has yet to find the end zone. He just hasn't been as involved in the offense as we hoped, and with the running backs combining for a 29% target share in Week 4, the Dolphins may be trending in a direction that won't allow Waddle to reach his full potential. On the other hand, he had 78 and 86 yards in the first two games of the season and was coming back from an injury last week when he had just 46 yards. Let's just bet on the elite talent in the elite offense when the number is this low, huh? |
| Kendrick Bourne OVER 32.5 receiving yards -117 |
| This is a genuinely strange line, as Bourne has topped it three times in four games. Now, granted, his usage has been trending in the wrong direction, with a season-low three targets in Week 4, while his snap share has been below 60% in three straight. He's been the Patriots best pass-catcher this season, so I don't quite understand the diminished role here, but this number is just too low to not take the over, frankly. |
| Miles Sanders OVER 40.5 rushing yards |
| This is another one where the number is just too low not to take the over. Sanders hasn't been efficient at all this season and has still topped this number in two of four games. His groin injury limited him to just 13 carries last week, but a little bit of back-of-napkin math tells me that he only needs to average 3.2 yards per carry on 13 carries to reach this mark. The Lions defense has been very tough, allowing just 60.7 yards per game on 3.0 yards per carry on the ground, but even the best rush defense last season allowed 3.4 -- the Lions were at 5.2, the second-worst mark in the NFL, for the record. This seems like another situation where I'm willing to bet against the outlier early-season results on both sides. |
| Alexander Mattison UNDER 54.5 rushing yards -127 |
| The schedule has lightened considerably for Mattison the past two weeks and he's topped 90 rushing yards in each of the past two games as a result. However, his situation still feels pretty precarious, with Cam Akers here, seemingly ready to take on a larger role if Mattison shows any signs of struggling. The bigger concern this week, however, is that this game turns into a shootout, with the Vikings abandoning the run early to try to keep up with the Chiefs. I'm still starting Mattison as an RB2, but there's serious bottom-out potential this week given the matchup. |
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| | | | | College Football on CBS | | NFL on CBS | Saturday, it's another great SEC on CBS matchup when head coach Nick Saban takes his #11 Crimson Tide into enemy territory against Texas A&M. The day begins at 2:30 ET with the Drive to Atlanta followed by State Farm College Today.
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| | This Sunday, it's an NFL on CBS doubleheader with the early games featuring an AFC North matchup between the Ravens and the Steelers. Later, Mahomes and the Chiefs go on the road versus Justin Jefferson and the Vikings. Get set for kickoff beginning at 12 PM ET with The NFL Today
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