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Link to full report and disclosures: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse
Real-Time Insights |
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Highlights |
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· Anecdotal evidence is pointing to moderating growth. Textual analysis of the Fed's July Beige Book points to a distinct decline in the use of words associated with "strength" and a notable uptick in occurrences of words associated with weakness. | ||||||||||
· Motor gasoline inventories ticked up to 225m barrels in early July, but are still well below levels set at this time of year in 2019-21. Tight inventories of refined energy products has contributed to a surge in prices and near record high refiners' margins. | ||||||||||
· Housing markets continue to show signs of weakness. The percentage of active home listings that saw price declines increased to 7.1% in the week ending July 10th, a significant departure from prior seasonal patterns. 12-month ahead home price appreciation expectations have fallen to 4.4% from 6% in April. according to separate data from the NY Fed. | ||||||||||
· Daily new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and Europe have jumped reflecting the spread of the highly transmissible omicron BA.5 variant. While sentiment and activity seem to have decoupled from the course of the virus' spread, prevalence of "long covid" which some research suggests is linked with reinfection will be an important trend to monitor. | ||||||||||
· Passenger throughput at domestic airports has picked up in recent weeks, but remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels. The seven-day moving average of passenger throughput increased to 2.3 million, well below the 2.6 million on the same day in 2019. | ||||||||||
· Visa's Spending Momentum Index, a gauge of the breadth of change in yr/yr consumer spending fell to 94.8 in June, the third consecutive monthly decline (index values below 100 indicate spending momentum is weakening). | ||||||||||
Week ahead: NAHB Housing Market Index (Jul 18); Housing Starts, Building Permits (Jul 19); Existing Home Sales, MBA Mortgage Applications (Jul 20); Initial & Continuing Claims (Jul 21) | ||||||||||
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Highlighted Charts:
Link to full report and disclosures: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse
Mickey Levy, [email protected]
Mahmoud Abu Ghzalah, [email protected]
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