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Link to full report and disclosures: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse
Real-Time Insights | |||||||
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· Used vehicle prices increased 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis through the first 15 days of May, according to Manheim's Used Vehicle Value Index. The resurgence in vehicle prices and sustained core services inflation could lift May's core CPI print on a m/m basis relative to April. | |||||||
·Visa's Spending Momentum Index - a gauge of the breadth of increases in consumer spending on a yr/yr basis fell to 96.7 in April, the lowest level since February 2021, with Visa noting that spending fell the most in areas that experienced the steepest increases in gasoline prices. Notably, the discretionary spending momentum index fell 2.1 pts to 94.2, compared to a 1.4pt decline in the non-discretionary index, consistent with anecdotal evidence of shifts in consumption away from discretionary items. | |||||||
· Driven by low inventories, limited refining capacity, and strong demand average retail gasoline and diesel prices continue to set fresh all-time highs. On June 4, average gasoline prices increased to a record high $4.8/gallon while retail diesel prices increased to $5.6/gallon. The jump in gasoline prices will boost headline CPI inflation, while rising diesel costs will exert further upward pressure on production and transportation costs. | |||||||
· Spot container shipping rates from China to the U.S. east and west coasts continue to fall but remain elevated well above pre-pandemic levels, according to data from Freightos. Spot container rates to the east coast have fallen 24% ytd, while rates on routes to the west coast have fallen 28%. Domestic port congestion has moderated in recent weeks, but a relaxation of COVID-19 lockdowns in China and associated increase in outbound shipments that would likely arrive at U.S. ports towards the end of the month could once again clog U.S. ports. | |||||||
· The seven-day moving average of seated diners from reservations ticked down at the national level, according to data from OpenTable, falling to 4.1% below the pre-pandemic baseline after a spike to 7.3% above the baseline over Memorial Day weekend. Consumer spending on food services has risen sharply in recent months reflecting pent-up demand as the economy fully reopens, with demand robust in the face of soaring prices. | |||||||
· Despite a surge in airfares driven by a jump in jet fuel costs, passenger throughput at domestic airports has largely remained resilient through May, and is significantly higher than at the same time of year in 2020 and 2021. Throughput could pick up as international travel and tourism recover with the waning effect of the pandemic. | |||||||
Week ahead: Trade Balance, Consumer Credit (Jun 7); MBA Mortgage Applications (Jun 8); Household chg. In Net Worth (Jun 9); CPI, U. Mich. Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (Jun 10) | |||||||
Link to full report and disclosures: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse
Mickey Levy, [email protected]
Mahmoud Abu Ghzalah, [email protected]
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