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| Thursday, October 31, 2024 |
| Hello! Welcome in for another day of matchup notes! Today, we're focused on the RB position. |
| Week 9 Beyond the Box Score episode: |
| Guest -- Dave Richard of FFT |
| Week 9 RB Matchup Notes: |
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| You can still start Chuba Hubbard even with Jonathan Brooks healthy |
| Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Panthers have the 12th-lowest pass rate over expectation in 2024, meaning that Carolina has run the ball more than expected based on the circumstances of each offensive play. Over the past three weeks, Carolina ranks bottom-five in pass rate over expectation. |
| In Week 9, Carolina draws a Saints defense that has been easy to run on. The most intuitive plan for Carolina sure would seem to be to attempt to establish the run in this spot. Fantasy Points Data also has a tool that grades each offensive line vs. defensive front matchup in an attempt to quantify the best run game matchups each week. Carolina's matchup has the third-highest grade in Week 9. Here's a look at the top-10: |
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| The Giants could move the ball on the ground vs. Washington |
| The Giants grade out as having the ninth-most advantageous matchup on the ground, and a deeper look into the schematic data suggests that this may be a perfect fit for the run game that Brian Daboll has designed. The Commanders have allowed a league-high 6.2 yards per rush on man/gap runs in 2024, compared to an average of 4.0 yards per zone rush. That 6.2 yard average comes on a large sample size, too! In fact, Washington's 122 opponent man/gap runs is the highest in the NFL. It's possible that offenses have diagnosed this as a weakness and decided to attack more than usual with this specific type of run. |
| The Giants have the fifth-highest man/gap run rate, so I'm expecting them to attempt to gash Washington's defensive front on the ground. 60% of Devin Singletary's and 56% of Tyrone Tracy's runs have been man/gap concept. |
| James Conner set up for another big game |
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| One of the few running backs with a higher percentage of runs coming on man/gap designs than the Giants backfield is James Conner. He leads the NFL in man/gap attempts, and 70% of his runs have been man/gap designs. The Bears rank 12th-worst in terms of both yards per rush and rushing success rate allowed vs. man/gap concepts and have better metrics vs. zone runs. |
| The FP Data Suite grades Arizona's run game matchup as the sixth-best in Week 9, and we've seen teams move the ball successfully on the ground vs. Chicago's defense. Arizona's pass game came alive in Week 8, and still, the Cardinals posted a -6.2% pass rate over expectation. On the year, Arizona ranks 30th. The engine of this offense is James Conner, and he is as mean and powerful of an engine as there is when healthy. I'm expecting him to wear down this Bears defense in Week 9, especially if Caleb Williams and the offense can't stay on the field. |
| Josh Jacobs probably runs all over Detroit for as long as Green Bay can keep the game competitive |
| The Detroit Lions had the fifth-highest opponent run rate over expectation in Week 8, which was the first time all year that an opponent did not pass more than expected vs. this defense. Without Aidan Hutchinson, moving the chains against this defense with a ground game is a lot more attainable of a goal. The Titans were able to do it last week. That brings me to the schematic side of this matchup. Tennessee uses a ton of man/gap rushing. So do the Packers. |
| The Lions have allowed just 3.3 yards per zone rush, compared to an opponent average of 5.3 yards per man/gap concept run. Detroit has allowed the sixth-highest yards per man/gap rush and ninth-highest success rate on such runs. |
| Alvin Kamara may deliver one of "those" weeks |
| This may be an eruption spot for Kamara. Or maybe Jamaal Williams is going to be a sneaky viable flex play. With Kendre Miller back on the injury report, Williams may see mop up duties late in a blowout win vs. Carolina. |
| As long as Kamara is not subbed out, he's probably going nuts in this matchup. The Saints have the ninth-highest implied point total (25.25) in Week 9, Derek Carr is back to keep Kamara fed, and Carolina's defense presents a perfect schematic fit for what Klint Kubiak likes to do with his run game. Per the FP Data Suite, Carolina has allowed a league-high 60% rush success rate on zone runs. Only the Falcons have a higher zone rush rate than the Saints. 72% of Kamara's rush attempts and 78% of his rushing yardage has come on zone attempts. |
| The reception upside always exists for Kamara. He leads all running backs with a 16% first-read target rate, and that rose to 25% in Week 8. Without Rashid Shaheed, creating catch-and-run opportunities for Kamara may be even more integral in this offense's plan to moving the chains. This week, Kamara also adds boosted rushing yardage and touchdown upside. He could be a matchup winner in Fantasy and a must-have for DFS in Week 9. He's near the top of the list of players I'm targeting in Dynasty leagues where I am attempting to add win-now pieces. |
| Speaking of DFS, Saquon Barkley may be the answer |
| I play exclusively tournaments these days, so I construct DFS lineups with game theory at the forefront of my mind. This Week 9 slate is shaping up to present a really easy and potentially impactful tournament pivot and leverage play in Saquon Barkley. With Bijan Robinson and Kamara likely to carry higher rostered rates than Barkley and Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown expected to be among the most popular options at their respective positions, rolling with Barkley could put you at a massive advantage to the field if the Philly touchdowns come on the ground. If Barkley outproduces Robinson and Kamara on a point per dollar basis at lower rostered rates, you're at an advantage. And I think that's pretty realistic. |
| The Eagles have the second-lowest pass rate over expectation on offense. Over the past three weeks, Philly's pass rate over expectation has been by far the lowest. Philly's rate during that time is -12%, and the next-lowest is -5%. Philly's rate has been at -11% or lower in each of the past three games. Since the bye, the Eagles have leaned really heavily on the run, even with A.J. Brown back in the mix. |
| If the Jaguars can't keep up with Philly (I am not at all confident that they can), then we could see close to 30 touches for Barkley in this game. That was the formula for Green Bay with Josh Jacobs in Week 8, and it worked quite well. |
| Week 9 Rankings Update |
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Quarterback
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| (This rankings set was created under the assumption that Jordan Love, Andy Dalton, and Drake Maye will not play in Week 9. I send out an updated rankings set every Tuesday, Thursday, and Sunday. Be sure to check back for updates on Sunday morning!) |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
QB1 - Josh Allen
QB2 - Jalen Hurts
QB3 - Lamar Jackson
QB4 - Jalen Hurts |
| Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk |
| QB7 - Kyler Murray |
| Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers |
QB5 - Joe Burrow
QB6 - Kirk Cousins
QB8 - Patrick Mahomes
QB9 - Matthew Stafford
QB10 - Dak Prescott
QB11 - Sam Darnold
QB12 - Jared Goff
QB13 - Geno Smith
QB14 - Caleb Williams
QB15 - Tua Tagovailoa
QB16 - Jameis Winston
QB17 - Bo Nix
QB18 - Derek Carr
QB19 - Baker Mayfield |
| This feels way too low for Baker, buttt |
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| Tier 4 -- He's Janiel Dones |
| QB22 - Daniel Jones |
| Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players |
QB20 - Justin Herbert
QB21 - C.J. Stroud
QB23 - Aaron Rodgers
QB24 - Trevor Lawrence
QB25 - Joe Flacco
QB26 - Malik Willis
QB27 - Gardner Minshew
QB28 - Mason Rudolph
QB29 - Bryce Young
QB30 - Jacoby Brissett |
| Running Backs |
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| (This rankings set was created under the assumption that Travis Etienne and Tyrone Tracy (we got some good news today, though!) will not play in Week 9. I send out an updated rankings set every Tuesday, Thursday, and Sunday. Be sure to check back for updates on Sunday morning!) |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
RB1 - Saquon Barkley
RB2 - Derrick Henry
RB3 - Bijan Robinson
RB4 - Kyren Williams
RB5 - De'Von Achane
RB6 - Alvin Kamara
RB7 - Jahmyr Gibbs
RB8 - Joe Mixon
RB9 - Breece Hall
RB10 - Kenneth Walker
RB11 - Jonathan Taylor
RB12 - James Cook
RB13 - D'Andre Swift
RB14 - Aaron Jones
RB15 - David Montgomery
RB16 - Josh Jacobs
RB17 - Kareem Hunt
RB18 - James Conner
RB19 - J.K. Dobbins
RB20 - Brian Robinson |
| Tier 2 -- Role checks out, but can we trust the offensive environment? |
RB21 - Chuba Hubbard
RB22 - Devin Singletary
RB23 - Tony Pollard
RB25 - Rhamondre Stevenson
RB27 - Nick Chubb
RB30 - Alexander Mattison
RB31 - Javonte Williams |
| Tier 5 -- I have several concerns |
RB29 - Tank Bigsby
RB32 - Rico Dowdle |
| Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously (we're chasing upside!) |
RB24 - Chase Brown
RB26 - Rachaad White
RB28 - Bucky Irving
RB31 - Raheem Mostert
RB34 - Tyler Allgeier
RB38 - Jonathan Brooks |
| Tier 7 -- Desperation plays |
RB35 - Austin Ekeler
RB36 - Zack Moss
RB37 - Zach Charbonnet
RB39 - Ray Davis
RB40 - Braelon Allen
RB41 - Jamaal Williams
RB42 - Antonio Gibson
RB43 - Roschon Johnson
RB44 - Jaleel McLaughlin
RB45 - Ty Chandler |
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| Wide Receivers |
| (This rankings set was created under the assumption that Tee Higgins, Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis, and DK Metcalf will not play in Week 9. I send out an updated rankings set every Tuesday, Thursday, and Sunday. Be sure to check back for updates on Sunday morning!) |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
WR1 - CeeDee Lamb
WR2 - A.J. Brown
WR3 - Justin Jefferson
WR4 - Ja'Marr Chase
WR5 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR6 - Tyreek Hill
WR7 - Puka Nacua
WR8 - Drake London
WR9 - Cooper Kupp
WR13 - Khalil Shakir
WR14 - DeVonta Smith |
| Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big score |
WR10 - Terry McLaurin
WR11 - Chris Olave
WR12 - Malik Nabers
WR15 - Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR17 - Jaylen Waddle
WR19 - Ladd McConkey
WR20 - Zay Flowers
WR21 - Darnell Mooney |
| Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2 |
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WR12 - Malik Nabers
WR16 - Josh Downs
WR18 - Courtland Sutton
WR22 - Garrett Wilson
WR24 - Davante Adams
WR32 - Calvin Ridley |
| Tier 4 -- Super solid projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential) |
WR27 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR28 - Jakobi Meyers
WR29 - Michael Pittman |
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| Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun! |
WR23 - DJ Moore
WR26 - Xavier Worthy
WR31 - Amari Cooper
WR33 - Cedric Tillman
WR34 - Jordan Addison
WR35 - Keon Coleman
WR38 - Rome Odunze
WR39 - Keenan Allen
WR40 - DeAndre Hopkins |
| Tier 6 -- Desperation plays |
WR25 - Tank Dell
WR30 - Jayden Reed (again, these will be updated if we get word that Love is playing)
WR36 - Tyler Lockett
WR37 - Romeo Doubs
WR41 - Wan'Dale Robinson
WR42 - Jalen Tolbert
WR43 - Jerry Jeudy
WR44 - Elijah Moore
WR45 - Demarcus Robinson
WR46 - Xavier Legette
WR47 - Jalen McMillan
WR48 - DeMario Douglas
WR49 - Parker Washington
WR50 - Jalen Coker
WR51 - Darius Slayton
WR52 - Christian Watson
WR53 - Dontayvion Wicks
WR54 - Tim Patrick
WR55 - John Metchie
WR56 - Rashod Bateman
WR57 - Sterling Shepard
WR58 - Michael Wilson
WR59 - Tre Tucker
WR60 - Noah Brown |
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| Tight Ends |
| (This rankings set was created under the assumption that Dallas Goedert will not play in Week 9. I send out an updated rankings set every Tuesday, Thursday, and Sunday. Be sure to check back for updates on Sunday morning!) |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
TE1 - Travis Kelce
TE2 - Brock Bowers
TE3 - David Njoku
TE4 - Trey McBride
TE5 - Evan Engram
TE6 - Sam LaPorta
TE7 - Kyle Pitts
TE8 - Jake Ferguson |
| Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up |
TE9 - Cade Otton
TE11 - Dalton Kincaid
TE13 - Mark Andrews
TE15 - T.J. Hockenson |
| Tier 3 -- Streamers |
TE10 - Cole Kmet
TE12 - Tucker Kraft
TE14 - Dalton Schultz
TE16 - Zach Ertz
TE17 - Hunter Henry
TE18 - Noah Fant
TE19 - Jonnu Smith
TE20 - Taysom Hill
TE21 - Colby Parkinson
TE22 - Isaiah Likely
TE23 - Mike Gesicki
TE24 - Will Dissly
TE25 - Ja'Tavion Sanders
TE26 - Juwan Johnson
TE27 - Grant Calcaterra
TE28 - Erick All Jr.
TE29 - Noah Grat
TE30 - Chig Okonkwo
TE31 - Tyler Conklin
TE32 - Brenton Strange
TE33 - Theo Johnson |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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